Tuesday, March 29, 2005

Margin of Victory Revisited

A while ago I posted how margin of victory was a strong predictor of which teams will be cutting down the nets at the end of the season. How do the Final 4 teams stack up?

#1 North Carolina +18.2
#2 Louisville +17.3
#3 Illinois +16.5
#5 Michigan St. +14.0

Like I said margin of victory won't predict the winner, but the corrulation is very strong as to who has the best chance to be the last team standing at the end of the year. This year proves the case once again.

Case closed.

Illinois vs Louisville Preview

(1) Illinois vs (4) Louisville
This is the early game on Saturday. Check back tomorrow for the North Carolina/Michigan St. preview.

Key 1: Louisville was successful against West Virginia because they were able to get easy buckets on transition. Illinois had problems with Arizona because they were not able to get set on defense and allowed easy buckets in the paint. With that said, Illinois should be able to stop the easy buckets on transition that fueled the Louisville comeback. Louisville must not let the Illini get set on defense. This is the key to breaking them down.

Key 2: Illinois had success with Arizona when they stepped up the pressure on defense, especially on the perimeter. This is something that Louisville may have trouble with. If Illinois can contain the speed of Louisville and contest the shots on the perimeter they will have a good night. Louisville must remember this formula, lazy pass = 2 points for Illinois.

Key 3: The key for Louisville is to get those points in the paint, unfortunately that is not their game. One has to wonder if the middle was open for Arizona because there was so much focus on Stoudamire or if the Illini truly are that vulnerable on the inside. Garcia better watch out, if Williams can handle Stoudamire, then he can easily handle Garcia. O'Bannon and Dean must step up big for Louisville again.

Key 4: Foul trouble. If Garcia fouls out against the Illini, Louisville is going home. Louisville has to take it to Powell, he has shown to be prone to foul trouble all year. They can also put Augustine in foul trouble, but the Illini showed that they can win without him. While Augustine was good in the first three rounds, he had a terrible game against Arizona.

Key 5: Injuries. Is Augustine and Head at 100%?

Key 6: Turnovers. Arizona exposed the Illini passing game by stepping into the passing lanes and picked off lots of passes for turnovers and easy baskets.

Prediction: Illinois (Not as high scoring as you would think, in the 70s only)
Louisville will not be able to expose Illinois on the inside. Williams will handle Garcia. Illinois has a defense suited for handling quick teams and guards. Louisville does not have the defense to stop Illinois. With two great offensive teams, defense will be the difference.

Monday, March 28, 2005

I love this game

Conference Tournament Records

Sorry NBA, you don't deserve this tag-line. If you don't love NCAA basketball after this weekend you never will.

The following was the 4th best game of the weekend. If this is the 4th best game out of 4 games you know you are ready for something special:
Syracuse Regional
(1) N. Carolina 88 - (6)Wisconsin 82
I thought for sure N. Carolina would blow the Badgers out of the building. I figured they would wear down Wisconsin like they did Iowa St. Near the end of the 1st half it looked like I would be right, with North Carolina up 11. Wisconsin went on a 11-0 run to finish the second half. Wisconsin looked good early in the second half going up by 5. The killer was a 40 second sequence in which Wisconsin went from up 5 to down 3. North Carolina just had too many easy buckets the entire game, especially early. McCants sealed the deal down the stretch with a big 3 and a few huge blocks. Who would have thought that N. Carolina would score 88 points against Wisconsin and be in a dog fight.

The following was only the 3rd best game of the weekend. An overtime thriller and a 20-point comeback and only the 3rd best game of the weekend. As Dick Enberg would say Oh My!
Albuquerque Regional
(4)Syracuse 93 - (7)West Virginia 85
Went to visit my family this Easter. It was great to sit and watch basketball with my Dad again. When the half came and West Virginia was ahead by 13, we looked at each other and said Syracuse is going to win even though they had a huge lead. West Virginia had amazing 3 point shooting, 18 for 27. They had 18 3's. That is 56 points from the 3 ball. They had only 8 2 pointers. The problem with West Virginia was that they were slow on the transition defense. There were two occasions when Louisville looked like they were 1 against 3 on the transition, but they were able to outrun the other two defenders for an easy 1 on 1 basket. When the 3's stopped falling it was all over for West Virginia. My guess was that West Virginia tired out from the grueling schedule of the last 3 weeks. I thought West Virginia might pull it out when Garcia fouled out late when West Virginia still had a lead, but Louisville fought through it for a hard earned victory.

The second best game of the weekend. What a weekend. A double overtime game is only the second best game. I can't imagine ever getting another weekend of basketball like this again. It just can't happen.
Austin Regional
(5)Michigan St. 94 - (2)Kentucky 88 2OT
80% second half shooting by Michigan St. is only worth a double over time win, Amazing. Michigan St.'s offensive rebounds were the difference. With Kentucky ahead by 4 in the first overtime and starting to take the game over for good, Michigan St. had an amazing offensive possession where they got 6 or 7 shots on one possession before making a 3 pointer. After that, Michigan St. turned the momentum around and eventually won in double overtime. It was just a small sequence, but was indicative of what made the difference in the game. Not sure how Kentucky forced double overtime with the Michigan St. shooting in the second half, but nothing made sense this weekend.

And now for the granddaddy of them all. I nominate this as the best NCAA tournament game ever.

Chicago Regional
(1) Illinois 90 - (3) Arizona 89
I can't remember ever seeing a comeback of this nature against an opponent as good as Arizona is. Have you ever seen a comeback like this when there was so much on the line. This was one of those games that you will remember where you were when you saw it, especially if you were an Illini fan. Even if you weren't an Illini fan you have to appreciate the effort. I love a team that never gives up.

The entire game Arizona absolutely dominated Illinois inside. Dominated isn't the word, controlled, pushed around, owned, destroyed, obliterated, killed the Illini inside maybe a better term. Illinois controlled Stoudamire, but that was about all the Illini could do on defense. Somehow the Illini held with Arizona for 32 minutes until Arizona went up by 15. You know the rest. Illinois did not panic. When you go back and watch the game you will see that this was the most controlled last minute comeback you will ever see. Being #1 overall was a huge advantage for Illinois. People in Los Angeles thought they were going through another minor earthquake, but it was just feeling the affects all the way from Chicago from the stadium shaking and almost crumbling to its foundation. You could barely hear Jay and Dick annoucing and you could tell that they were yelling right into their mike.

The comeback was due to Illinois making almost all their shots down the stretch and 3 Arizona turnovers. When watching the reply I still was expected Arizona to win the game even though I knew the result. Just amazing. With Stoudamire not getting the ball at the end, Arizona did not know how to run the offensive, which led to the Illini pulling out the victory and a Final 4 appearance. Illinois almost blew a 6 point lead with around a minute to go, which would have been too cruel an irony and would have driven Chicago insane. After Steve Bartman and the Cubs this would have done the city in.

This game had everything except a 3 second game ending highlight for the future promos.

To sum up the day.

  • We have a team that can't get above 60-70 points giving the #2 team in the country a fit even though they scored 88 points.
  • 18 3's and a 20 point lead is good for an overtime loss.
  • 80% shooting in the second half is only good for a double overtime win.
  • A 15 point lead with 4 minutes remaining, 14 point lead with 3:30 remaining, a 8 point lead with around a minute remaining and the ability to score at will on the inside in good for an overtime loss.

What an amazing weekend. This was the best weekend College Basketball has ever seen.

2005 NCAA Tournament Conference Records

Only tracking conferences that have 3 or more bids (tracking the records of a 2 bid or less conference does not accurately reflect the strength of a conference)

The results are current through all regional games. Only the final 4 teams are left.

ACC/Big 10 Challenge II
Big Ten 2
ACC 1

Conference Record Win %
Big 10 11-3 .786
ACC 10-4 .714
Conference USA 7-3 .700
Pac 10 5-4 .555
Big East 7-6 .538
Big 12 6-6 .500
SEC 4-5 .444
MVC 1-3 .250

Saturday, March 26, 2005

Syracuse/Austin Regional Semi-Final Recap

ACC/Big 10 Challenge II
(5) Michigan St. 78 - (1) Duke 68
(6) Wisconsin 65 - (10) NC State 56
Where did all that talk about the Big 10 having a down year go? How about the talk about the Big 10 leaders not being tested in the regular season?

So far Big Ten 2 ACC 0.

Big 10 fans don't get too excited, North Carolina can roll through and knock out the remaining Big 10 teams and make the score ACC 3 Big Ten 2, but enjoy the victories, the Big 10 deserves it after getting knocked all season.

(1) North Carolina 67- (5) Villanova 66
That travel call at the end of the game was the worst call in the NCAA tournament since Chris Weber called a timeout without any timeouts remaining. Ironic that both calls greatly benefit North Carolina. Couldn't tell if Ray travelled or not, what I do know is that if the same situation occurs in 100 more tournament games, it will never be called, nor should it have been called. Give North Carolina credit for making a nice comeback, probably would have won anyway, but the teams should have decided the outcome not the refs. Awful.

(2) Kentucky 62 - (6) Utah 52
Does this result surprise anyone? Let me give a simple math equation. Bogut + no help does not equal a deep tourney run. Kentucky continues to win ugly. 61% shooting for Kentucky, but only 62 points. No team has more ugly wins than Kentucky. Utah (I mean Bogut) had a nice run, but Bogut can only carry them so far.

Thursday, March 24, 2005

Albuquerque Regional Semi-Final Review

(4) Louisville 93 - (1) Washington 79
Louisville proved what we already knew, they are much better than a #4 seed. As retribution for their poor seeding they will have as easy an Elite-8 game as you can have against West Virginia (nothing against them, we love the play of West Virginia the past 3 weeks). Louisville was just too quick for Washington. Garcia just killed them. The foul trouble for Washington doomed any chance of a come back. Louisville just had an answer for every Washington run and was just the better team. Don't buy the garbage from the media that Washington wasn't a derserving #1 seed. Two #2 seeds didn't even make the Sweet-16, only 1 has a chance to make it farther than Washington, so don't single out Washington. Lets talk about Wake Forest if you want to talk about under acheivers or teams not getting the job done. At least Washington lost to a really good team instead of a tired team my Grandma could have outrun. Louisville will be the #2 favorite to make the Final Four behind North Carolina (if they win).

(7) West Virgina 65 - (6) Texas Tech 60
Even though it seems like I am disrespecting West Virginia, there is no team I have more respect for than West Virginia. What they have done is absolutely amazing. They went from a true bubble team to the Elite-8. They came back against Wake Forest even though they were exhausted and beat Texas Tech. Granted Texas Tech made some aweful decisions down the stretch, but West Virginia is just getting the job done. 3's were the difference here. 9 to 1 in West Virginia's favorite. Also West Virginia is playing like a team that wants to win. Texas Tech just didn't have the same passion, which is why West Virginia looked like the Elite-8 team and is the Elite-8 team.

Chicago Regional Semi-Final Recap

(1) Illinois 77 - (12) UW-Milwaukee 63
Just another day at the office for Illinois. They still have not been tested in this tournament and probably have not played their best either. Although, today's performance was much better than their games last week. Dee Brown found his touch again and Williams had a terrific game. If the guard play is this good on Saturday the Illini will have the Allstate arena nets as a souvenier and a trip to St. Louis. Illinois's defense also stepped up as expected and kept UWM under 10 3's and the shooting percentage under 40%. While UWM made a few runs the game was never in doubt. A solid performance for the Illini.

(3) Arizona - (2) Oklahoma St.
Not sure why this game was even close. If you watched this game you would swear that the scorekeeper kept adding points for Oklahoma St. everytime you weren't paying attention. (63% shooting vs 43% shooting in Arizona's favor) +10 rebounding advantage for Arizona as well (+2 on the offensive glass. Oklahoma St. went to sleep midway in the 2nd half. Arizona got easy layup after easy layup. That stretch proved the difference. I still think I am going to wake up tomorrow and see that Arizona actually won by 15.

Chicago Regional Semi-Finals Preview

(1) Illinois vs (12) UW-Milwaukee
Don't believe the hype, very few in Champaign care about UW-Milwaukee coach Bruce Pearl turning in Illinois for recruiting violations years ago. I don't think any of the current Illinois staff is still around from that.

This will come down to shooting and defense. UW-Milwaukee needed 12 3's in the first round and 11 in the second round to win their games. They have no inside game and need the long ball to beat the big guys. Illinois has shown throughout the entire season that they are prone to giving up 3's, the problem is that the Illinois defense is incredibly tough and opponents usually are not able to get points both on the inside and the perimeter. Don't expect UW-Milwaukee to get past the 60s in scoring.

The key for UW-Milwaukee is to slow down the Illini offense. They have to stop Dee Brown from getting easy baskets in transistion, but lately the rest of the Illini team has been running up the floor for easy baskets as well, so it is hard to determine where the attack will come from. Even though Illinois only showed up for a cameo appearance in Indianapolis, they should come out more motivated for the games in Chicago.

Prediction: Illinois (Probably a sloppy 10-15 minutes to start, and then Illinois takes charge)

(2) Oklahoma St. vs (3) Arizona
One of the 2 premier games of the night. Both teams love a quick pace. Both coaches are great. I have to give the edge to Arizona. Stoudamire will be the difference in this game. He can draw the defense to the perimeter while Frye is more than capable on the inside. If Stoudamire is on (like he always is) Arizona should win. Oklahoma St. is not able to slow down the pace enough to give Arizona fits. If Oklahoma St. can slow down Arizona they will have a good chance to win, but they are a quick team that like to play a quick pace.

Prediction: Arizona (Stoudamire hits a big 3 with just over a minute to go to ice it)
The pace favors Arizona.

Sunday, March 20, 2005

Chicago Regional Recap (Day 2 Round 2)

(2) Oklahoma St. 85 - (7) S. Illinois 77
If anyone wondered what advantage Illinois will have playing in Chicago, you got a good sense of it watching this game. This was not a neutral site game. This was a home game for Oklahoma St. Oklahoma St. was down early in the first half due to poor shooting and ball handling. When the second half started, Oklahoma St. found their defense and then just took it to S. Illinois. The only reason this game was close was that Oklahoma St. started to make lazy passes that S. Illinois jumped all over. S. Illinois somehow got within 2 late in the game after a couple of threes. Oklahoma St. responded with a 3 pointer to put the Salukis away for good.

Albuquerque Regional (Day 2 Round 2)

(4) Louisville 76 - (5) Georgia Tech 54
Louisville came out swinging and took out Georgia Tech early. Georgia Tech is now 3-10 against tourney teams so this should not come as too big of a surprise to those who pay attention to college basketball. Louisville got knocked because people said that there record would not be as good if they played in the ACC. Maybe not, but it would be at least 1-0. The keys to the game were simple here. Shooting and rebounds. (53% - 37% shooting percentage and 33-16 advantage on the boards for Louisville as well) Louisville just played better, there really is not much more to say here. This game was a good ole fashioned whoopin'.

Austin Regional Recap (Day 2 Round 2)

(1) Duke 63 - (9) Mississippi St. 55
I have to start this summary by saying Billy Packer makes Dick Vitale look unbaised (at least I like "Dookie" V). To any unbiased person this should be obvious why. Ok now onto the summary. Duke should be thanking God that Mississippi St. could not make any free throws or layups. Mississippi St. missed 19 layups and 10 free throws. Duke looks vunerable on the inside. Sure they had a few key blocks at the end of the game, but that was the exception. As I thought, Duke's depth is a problem. When Duke got in foul trouble Mississippi went on a run that almost (should have) gave them the victory. Give Duke credit for stepping up at then end with key blocks and shots when they needed them badly. As for the refs I thought the game was well called. (my wife disagrees) After this game Clark Kellogg does not look as crazy for picking Michigan St. to make it to the final 4. Seems like a better bet than Duke at this point. I'll have to ponder and I will give my prediction later in the week.

(5) Michigan St. 72 - (13) Vermont 61
Easy win for Michigan St. Vermont hung close through the first half when they were draining 3's, but once they stopped falling Michigan St. took over and cruised to an easy victory. The Michigan St. defense was tough. Vermont had trouble getting buckets inside and with the pressure on the outside, Vermont only shot 31%. Izzo saw the tapes from the Syracuse game and adjusted accordingly to avoid any chance of an upset.

Syracuse Regional Recap (Day 2 Round 2)

(10) NC State 65 - (2) UConn 62
As predicted UConn was too big and the defense too much for NC State. Unfortnately for UConn the 3's were not falling. 10 3's for NCState vs 2 for UConn. You can blame the loss on a terrible non-call at the end of the game which resulted in a 3 pointer for NC State instead of the ball for UConn, but the real problem for UConn was the inability to hit the three, followed by their lack of intensity for the first 35 minutes of the game. UConn absolutely controlled the paint those last 5 minutes, well except for the layup and foul and the end of the game that gave NC State the lead and the game. So UConn fans don't blame the refs, blame your team.

(1) North Carolina 92 - (9) Iowa St. 65
North Carolina looks so good right now. They are firing on all cylinders. They just absolutely dominated Iowa St. on the inside. Not only were they good inside, they were good in transistion as well. North Carolina just ran and ran and ran until Iowa St. could not keep up anymore. After that North Carolina blew the game wide open. Even though Iowa St. was in striking distance for a while you never got the sense that they were ever in the game. North Carolina looks the best of any tournament team right now and this is written from the perspective of someone who does not like North Carolina very much. All I can say is wow.

(6) Wisconsin 71 - (14) Bucknell 62
Not sure why Wisconsin could not put the Bisons away. I thought that Wisconsin could have gone inside more since they did have success in the paint. Wisconsin played like they were not taking the game seriously at times. Whenever they got a lead they let their guard down, got lazy on offensive which allowed Bucknell to stick around. When the Badgers got serious, it was clear which team was the Sweet 16 team and which team was wearing glass slippers. Give Wilkenson credit (23 pts, 9 boards), he is the heart and soul of the Badgers and a big reason why they are moving on to the second week.

(5) Villanova - (4) Florida
Remind me again why I liked Florida in this game. They are constant underacheivers in the NCAA tournament. Villanova just spanked them, let the gators back in the game and just crushed them down the stretch. 19 turnovers and a -8 rebounding differential sealed the fate of the Gators. Villanova's defense has looked sharp the first two rounds and will have to be even sharper if the are going to slow down North Carolina in Syracuse. Should be an interesting game if Villanova's defense was as good as the first two rounds seems to indicate.

Saturday, March 19, 2005

Austin Regional Recap (Day 1 Round 2)

(6) Utah 67 - (3) Oklahoma 58
Utah just dominated Oklahoma. Let me give you an idea on how dominating Utah was. They had 13 more turnovers and still won by 9. Terrific defense and shooting by Utah was the difference. Oklahoma only shot 31% while Utah shot 59%. The rest of the Utah team stepped up big time today. Bogut (11 pts, 10 boards) was 4th in scoring on his team. Utah is going to need the entire team to step up like today if they are going to make it any farther. Besides the turnovers the lack of bench scoring should concern Utes fans.

(2) Kentucky 69 - (7) Cincinnati 60
This was a terrific game until Cincinnati could not make a basket to save their lives. Let me recap the Cincinnati offensive possesions at the end of the game for you in case you misssed it.

klank, rebound, klank, turnover, klank rebound, made FT, klank, klank, klank, airball, klank, rebound, klank, klank, rebound, klank, rebound, klank, blocked, klank.

In case you were not counting:
12 missed shots (1 missed FT, 1 airball, 1 blocked)
1 make FT
6 offensive rebounds
1 turnover

Yikes! No wonder they lost.

Albuquerque Regional Recap (Day 1 Round 2)

(1) Washington 97 - (9) Pacific 79
Where are all those Washington doubters? They are getting quieter and quieter. Washington just ran all over poor Pacific. Another good shooting night for Washington (56%), 5 players in double digits. Pacific played as good as they could have played and still came up short by 18. As long as Washington plays good defense and an up tempo game they will continue to move on. 97 points in regulation, Wow!

(6) Texas Tech 71 - (3) Gonzaga 69
Gonzaga absolutely controlled the paint and the boards the entire game. The had a double digit lead in the second half. Texas Tech looked better in the paint the second half, but still could not match up well with Gonzaga inside. It all came down to Texas Tech making the shots when it counted and Gonzaga did not. Gonzaga needs more than Morrison. He should not be shooting 6 threes. He definately should not be taking them at the end of the game, problem is Gonzaga has no one else to step up. After the last 3 years I don't want to hear that Gonzaga is not getting respect. As Gonzaga has shown, if you win you get respect. They just haven't got it done the last 3 years. Very big win for Texas Tech and Bobby Knight, say what you will about Knight, but he has turned Tech around into a prime time program.

(7) West Virginia 111 - (2) Wake Forest 105 2OT
A huge win for West Virginia and the Big East. West Virginia fans do not take the next thought as a slam on your school. It isn't. West Virginia played terrific, overcame almost impossible odds and somehow gutted out a terrific victory.

Wake Forest, pathetic. West Virginia looked tired and played tired the entire first half. Wake ran WV up and down the court the entire first half with great success. Then the second half came and I don't know what happened. Didn't push the ball up the court, which kept West Virginia in the game. Somehow they found the strength to gut out a victory. It was amazing, Wake could not make a 3 all game and then drains 5 or 6 3's at the end of regulation and in overtime.

When stats lie: 76% free throw shooting for WV. Not bad, except WV missed almost all the big free throws at the end of regulation and the first overtime which would have put the game away.

As I mentioned before the tournament, the Wake play without C. Paul should send shivers up the spines of Wake fans. When he fouled out, it was all over. I love this West Virginia team, there is no team in the country playing harder than them right now. You have to love and respect that. All non-ACC fans should thank West Virginia because it will spare all the talk of the ACC being undefeated. I will keep the conference standings through the rest of the tournament on this page. I guarantee you will not see them on CBS or ESPN the rest of the tourney, unless all the ACC teams win tomorrow.


Chicago Regional Recap (Day 1 Round 2)

(1) Illinois 71 - (9) Nevada 59
Illinois looked like the old Illini again after Nevada got within 2 late in the first half. Great defense for Illinois today, couple that with 19 assists and only 36% field goal shooting from Nevada and you have an easy Illinois victory. They even out-rebounded a good rebounding Nevada team. The game was not as close as the score indicates. James Augustine (23 points and 10 rebounds) was the man of the game today. Ingram and Augustine had half the points for the Illini today (35 points). It's amazing how many ways the Illini can beat you. Who would have thought that the Illini could look so good with Dee Brown (2 points) not looking so good. The only negative that Illini fans can take away from this game is that Brown has not been playing well the past 4-5 games. He will have to step his game up next week for Illinois to continue advancing.

(12) UW-Milwaukee 83 - (4) Boston College 75
Well I said that UW-Milwaukee had to drain a bunch of 3's to have a chance to win, and they drained 11 more 3's (45% 3-point shooting). The 22 turnovers doomed Boston College, especially #22 late in the game that let UW-Milwaukee control the game for good. 90% shooting from the line made sure that Boston College could not foul their way back into the game late. Give UWM credit, they played another great game. They don't look fancy winning, but they get the job done. Another painful loss for the Big East.

(3) Arizona 85- (11) UAB 63
This was the UAB that everyone expected to see. Arizona was just way too much. Stoudamire was awesome again (28 points). Arizona was too fast, too big and too good defensively for UAB. As I predicted one of the biggest mismatches of the day. It was as expected, a great team vs a mediocre team with the expected result.

Friday, March 18, 2005

No updates tonight

Sorry, feeling horrible.

All I have to say is good riddance to Kansas.

Thursday, March 17, 2005

Albuquerque Regional Recap (Round 1 Day 1)

(8) Pacific 79 - (9) Pittsburgh 71
Bracketology 101. Teams not playing good leading up to the tourney do not live long in the tourney. Pittsburgh was not playing good leading into the tourney and guess what, they're gone. Give Pacific credit they were in control the entire game. Pittsburgh cut it down to 5 late, but never really threatened after that. Nothing special, good first half shooting by Pacific, good defense and poor shooting by Pittsburgh were the difference.

(1) Washington 88 - (16) Montana 77
The game was not as close as the score indicates. Washington was in control early and coasted the rest of the way. 55% + shooting for Washington today. The reason it got close is that Washington got lazy on defense, but they were never threatened.

(2) Wake Forest 70 - (15) UT-Chatanooga 54
The game was closer than it looks for about 28 minutes. There was a sequence when Chatanooga blocked a shot and then Wake Forest gets the rebound and put back the shot. That was the turning point. Wake Forest went up by 4 and never looked back.

(3) Gonzaga 74 - (14) Winthrop 64
Gonzaga almost gets Gonzaga'd (whatever that means) by Winthrop. Two straight 3's when the game was tied at 60 doomed Winthrop.

(7) W Virginia 63 - (10) Creighton 61
Creighton misses a 3 with about 8 seconds left in the game and forgets to get back on defense. W. Virginia scores an open layup with 2 seconds left. Inexcusable. Sad that your entire season ends because you forgot to get back on defense. W. Virginia looked a step slower than they did in the Big East tourney. Give Creighton credit, they took it to W. Virginia the entire game and probably should have won until they went cold at the end. Only 8 points in the last 7 minutes for Creighton. Almost pulled it out with 2 straight 3's with about 2 minutes left, but West Virginia was just too good.

(6) Texas Tech 78 - (11) UCLA 66
While the score was close the entire way you felt that UCLA was never really in the game. Everytime Texas Tech started to roll, and I went to turn to another game, it seemed like UCLA got a 3 to keep them within shouting distance. It was lights out shooting for Texas Tech (just under 60%). I'm not sure how this was only a 12 point victory. The game was not close at all.

Chicago Regional Recap (Round 1 Day 1)

(12) Wisconsin Milwaukee 83 - (5) Alabama
Alabama did not look like the team that was a formidable foe all year long. They looked lost out on the court. 58% 3 point shooting from UW-Mil. Insane shooting. McCants and Tucker were just too much for Alabama to defend. Surprise, surprise, another 12 seed moves on once again.

(4) Boston College 85 - (13) Penn 65
Boston College clearly looked the best of all the top teams in the early games. They were in control the entire game. Boston College was too quick, too deep and too good for Penn. Even though Penn is not the best that the Ivy league has offered up in a while, Boston College deserves credit for a terrific performance.

(9) Nevada 61 - (8) Texas 57
One of the best games of the night. Texas missed 5 of their last 6 shots over the last 3 minutes to doom them. Texas was also letting Nevada get great offensive penetration for short jump shots over the same period. Texas proved that teams that are not playing good leading into the tourney have short stays. Very disappointing ending for Texas's season after a great start. Give Nevada credit. 2 straight visits to the second round. They now have a chance to beat a struggling Illini team for 2 straight Sweet 16 visits. Are they the new Gonzaga?

(3) Arizona 66 - (14) Utah St. 53
As widely expected the Utah St. defense and deliberate pace give Arizona fits. A big second half by Frye doomed Utah St. Arizona is a dangerous team with all their weapons. Utah St found out just how many weapons Arizona has. Frye, Stoudamire, Adams and Rodgers all had big games. Expect Arizona to be playing next week.

(1) Illinois 67 - (16) Fairleigh-Dickinson 55
Admit it Illini fans, you were scared to death (I know I was). You know how I know, the most popular page was the Fairleigh-Dickinson team page. I guess people were trying to figure out who those guys were (it wasn't curious people from around the country, most hits were from the Champaign area). Honestly I have no clue who they are. Here is what I do know, 27% 3-point shooting won't get it done. If you can't shoot from the outside, can't get the ball to the inside and let your opponent control the middle (like Fairleigh did in the 1st half) you will lose. This is the absolute last time Illinois can play like this and still win. Augustine was the man on the boards (15 reb), he needs to play better interior defense against Nevada to make it to the Sweet 16.

(11) UAB 82 - (6) LSU 68
LSU just got destroyed. This was just a good ole fashioned whoopin'. UAB didn't do anything special, LSU just self-destructed. Lets look at LSU's stats. 34% field goal shooting. 18% from beyond the arc (6-32, WOW!). 6 assists vs 15 turnovers. No more analysis needed.

Austin Regional Recap (Round 1 Day 1)

(2) Kentucky 72 - (15) E. Kentucky 64
This game was much closer than it should have been. E. Kentucky wanted a piece of Kentucky and they played like it. The difference in the game was that Kentucky was too big and too physical for E. Kentucky. While E. Kentucky kept it close they never got to the point where it looked like they could win.

(3) Oklahoma 84 - (14) Niagara 67
Typical high seed/low seed game. The low seed can hang for just over a half and just wears down by the end of the game. This was just a 1 point game at the first intermission of the second half and then Oklahoma just blew the game open as expected. Credit the athleticism and defense of Oklahoma for blowing the game open.

(7) Cincinnati 76 - (10) Iowa 64
Who was that crazy analyst that said Cincinnati was overrated? This was not the same Bearcat team that we have seen all year. This team was physical, played good defense and destroyed Iowa in the middle. If Cincinnati keeps playing like this they can make a deep run. One thing to keep in mind though is that this was Iowa they beat up on.

(6) Utah 60 - (11) UTEP 54
A nice victory by Utah. Not sure if it was a good idea to play Bogut for 40 minutes. He did not look good in the 2nd half. He looked winded and tired. It will be interesting to see how he plays against Oklahoma. Jackson's shot with about 40 seconds left in the game put Utah up for good.

Wednesday, March 16, 2005

Final thoughts while you pass the time until the tourney starts

Wouldn't it be ironic if:

  • Louisville makes it to the National Championship game and loses by missing its free throws with no time left on the clock.
  • Boston College makes it farther in the tourney that North Carolina and Illinois
  • The Big 10 and SEC are the only teams left in the final 4 after being laughed at all year for having down conferences.
  • UAB, N. Iowa and Iowa all win their first round games.
  • All the 5 seeds win their first game
  • and then a 1,2,3,4,6,7, and 8 seed all get upset
  • the Illini's bus breaks down and they end up having the roughest trip after all the talk of their easy travel plans.
  • NC State and Georgia Tech outlast N. Carolina, Wake Forest and Duke
  • Billy Packer has to announce a final four without any ACC teams
  • Duke loses due to a bad referee call

Final thought from my 6 year old daughter,

"Daddy, you keep talking about these basketball teams dancing, when are they going to dance already"

My thoughts exactly. It's finally time.

All brackets available

All team pages and all game previews are now up. I believe the first round will go similar to last year. Very few upsets in the first round. The second round is where all the fireworks will start.

Team pages are available by clicking on each team on the right. Previews of the games are available by clicking on the preview link next to each set of teams.

Tuesday, March 15, 2005

Syracuse Bracket Available

As before, you can click on the team to see which tourney teams they have played as well as some other interesting stats and analysis. You can click on the preview link to see analysis and predictions of each game.

Monday, March 14, 2005

Albuquerque Tournament Bracket Available

You must check out the teams pages for Georgia Tech and UCLA. Their record against the field is quite interesting.

As always each team on the right side has its own team tournament resume with some interesting stats and information as well as each game has a preview with some interesting analysis and my predictions for those who care.

I highly recommend looking at all the team pages before filling out your brackets, you will be shocked at what you find with some teams. The record and games against the tournament teams is the most interesting part.

Dick Vitale is crazy

Dick Vitale's ACC bias continues. His final 4 contains 3 ACC teams (N. Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest) along with Illinois. Give me a break. It is a good thing Georgia Tech didn't end up in the Chicago bracket or he would have predicted an all ACC final 4.

Chicago Regional information available

If you look on the right pane you will see that the Chicago regional team pages are now available. If you click on a team you can see how they have fared against the rest of the tourney teams as well as the good and bad of each team with other useful information that you will need to prepare your brackets.

Also, you will notice that each game has a preview button where you can read information about each game and well as get my predictions. The other regions will be available later. Please check back.

Sunday, March 13, 2005

64 out of 65

Note: Check back later for a comprehensive profile of each team as well as a break down of each first round match.

Not bad at all, at first blush it looks better than most experts. I will look at how the "experts" faired shortly.

Missed N. Iowa picked DePaul instead.

Update:

Tony Mejia (CBS) 65 of 65
D. Madurzak (NCAA Madness) 64 of 65
Joe Lunardi (ESPN) 64 of 65
Yoni Cohen (Yoco Hoops/Fox Sports) 64 of 65
Bracketology 101 63 of 65
Dick Vitale 63 of 65

The only reason Dick is on ESPN complaining about his 2 teams not getting in not that they deserve it. (Notre Dame and Miami (OH)) They don't. The last few bubble teams don't deserve it either. It's that he got more choices wrong than any of the other experts.

Saturday, March 12, 2005

Final Tournament Predictions and Awards

Here are my final picks. I don't think that there is anything that can happen Sunday that will change this. Saturday night was a terrible night for bubble teams. Two major upsets have put two teams in that would never have gotten in. (Utah St., New Mexico[had a slim chance]) What is worse is that the teams they were playing were already in (Pacific, Utah) and were not already accounted for in the at large pool.

Looking at the picks we see the Big 10 back with 5 teams again. Who would have thought this 2 weeks ago. They were hoping for 4 and now have a solid 5.

Big 12 (6) - Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Texas Tech, Iowa St., Texas
Big East (6) - Boston College, UConn, Syracuse, Villanova, Pitt, W. Virginia
Big 10 (5) - Illinois, Michigan St., Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa
SEC (5) - Kentucky, Florida, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi St.
Conference USA (5) - Louisville, Cincinnati, Charlotte, UAB, DePaul
ACC (5) - N.Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke, Georgia Tech, NC St.
Pac 10 (4) - Arizona, Stanford, UCLA, Washington
Mountain West (2) - Utah, New Mexico
MVC (2) - S. Illinois, Creighton
WAC (2) - Nevada, UTEP
WCC (2) - Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Big West (2) - Pacific, Utah St.

Last 4 In - St. Mary's, UAB, UTEP, DePaul
First 4 Out - Wichita St., Notre Dame, N. Iowa, Buffalo
Next 4 Out - Indiana, Memphis, Georgetown, Maryland

The Pheonix Award (Awarded to the team that arises from the ashes into a new NCAA post-season life)
Iowa

The Overhyped Award (Awarded to the team that gets the most talk for an at large bid, but doesn't deserve it, also known as the Cincinnati Bearcat award)
Memphis (As I told you for 3 weeks now. They are not a tournament team)

The "Dookie-V" Award (Awarded to the analyst that created the most biased tourney prediction)
Interestingly enough it is Dick Vitale - Bracket (The ACC with 7, after Maryland and Miami loses in the 1st round, come on)

Note: The bracket has changed but the award and point remains. The first bracket was just awfully biased. Dick Vitale and objectivity just don't mix.

The Elvis Award (Awarded to the team that broke the hearts of bubble teams)
Tie (New Mexico and Utah St.)

The Finger Award (Awarded to the team that gave the committee the middle finger and played their way into an automatic bid after getting snubbed the year before)
Utah St.

Alien vs Preditor Award (Awarded to the game or moment that was absolutely painful to watch)
Darius Washington missing 2 of 3 free throws with no time left on the clock sending Memphis to the NIT. As unworthy as Memphis is, this was just gut wrenching. I feel terrible for the kid. He will have nightmares the rest of his life over this.

Best Overall Tournament Performance
West Virginia (They didn't win the Big East tourney, but they accomplished more than any team this week.

Thursday, March 10, 2005

Do we really need 65 teams?

Time to go back to 64. There are not 65 worthy teams. There isn't even 64 worthy teams. If I hear one complaint from a team saying they deserve to be in that doesn't make the NCAA Tournament I will scream. They will be lying. Whoever is left out at this point should be left out. There are no teams playing their way in that are not already in.

Here is today's summary.

In
W Virginia, Stanford

Should be OK
Iowa St., Minnesota (Didn't play but look good by comparison), DePaul, UCLA, Texas

Hang'in On
NC State, Iowa, UAB, Miami (OH), Memphis (Still not a tourney team)

Big Trouble
Maryland

Out
Georgetown, Arizona St., Vanderbilt

Wednesday, March 09, 2005

Sickening

Another Team sold out by their conference.

Oakland (12-18) is in and the #1 seed Oral Roberts(25-7) is out.

What a sham.

  • Stop trying to convince me that these tournaments are worth it.
  • Stop trying to tell me that the upset potential makes it exciting.
  • Stop trying to tell me that the best team wins the tournament.
  • Stop trying to tell me you care.
  • Stop trying to tell me you watch.
  • Stop trying to tell me the conference needs the money.
  • Stop trying to tell me the conference needs the ESPN exposure.
  • Stop trying to tell me every team deserves a chance.
  • Stop trying to tell me that they knew the rules going in.
  • Stop trying to tell me that these sub .500 teams belong.
  • And definately don't tell me that Oakland earned its spot.

THEY DON'T!!!!!!!!!! Oral Roberts proved they are the best. They had one tough game and lost it all. It is much harder to win the regular season than the conference tourney. Why do these conferences even have a conference tourney. Better yet why do these conferences have a season. It is obviously pointless if Oakland gets in.

Sickening.

What do the Notre Dame football and basketball team have in common?

Here is the wrapup of the games that matter.

Rutgers 72 - Notre Dame 65
It seems like both of the Notre Dame's main sports teams will be playing meaningless post season games. Notre Dame was practically a lock a couple of weeks ago. The Big East was never going to get 8 teams. Notre Dame gave the committee a reason why now. The question you have to ask yourself is when will a Notre Dame Men's football and basketball team actually play in a post season game that matters.

Georgetown 56 - Seton Hall 51
The Georgetown win was big for them. The Notre Dame loss was even bigger for them. Georgetown still needs another win, at least, to get in. At least Georgetown won't have to worry about Notre Dame taking their spot.

W. Virgina 82 - Providence 59
W. Virginia is in. There is no doubt.

DePaul 81 - Tulane 71
DePaul is in also. Currently they are in better position that the 3 Big East teams.

Memphis 79 - St. Louis 59
Memphis is still not a tourney team. They have to win the Conference USA tourney to get in. That is their only way in. A run to the finals is still not enough.

Montana 63 - Weber St. 61
Fair Dickinson 58 - Wagner 52
Montana gets the bid from the Big Sky. Fair Dickinson get the Northeast Conference bid. Your favorite writter wonders why 2 teams with losing records gets to play for a tourney bid. What a sham!!!!!!!!! At least they lost.

Tuesday, March 08, 2005

Its safe to turn on the TV Illini fans. You're still #1. Who else is?

By the way Illinois fans, you can now watch ESPN again. The talk of the Illinois upset has gone away for the most part. What a blood bath Sunday was! With all the carnage, it shook out who the definiate #1 seeds are. The problem is with that last #1 seed.

#1 overall
Illinois

One loss doesn't change this. The only thing that changes this is if North Carolina wins the ACC tourney and Illinois does not win the Big Ten tourney. Think that isn't fair. Maybe not, but that is what will happen.

#1 (2nd overall)
North Carolina

They finally beat one of the other top 3 teams in the ACC.

#1 (3rd overall)
Wake Forest

They will flip with North Carolina if they beat them in the ACC tourney. After Sunday this is an obvious place for Wake Forest. I don't see anyway they move to #1 overall unless Illinois and North Carolina lay stink bombs in their respective tourneys and even then it is a long shot.

#1 (4th overall)
This is a mess. There are still 9 teams with a chance at the #1. Some are very remote. I have listed them in the order of the likelyhood it will occur as well as what must occur for each team to get the #1 seed. If the first team in the list does not take care of business then the second team will have the inside track if they take care of business. If the first and second team do not take care of business then the third team will have the inside track and so on and so on.

  1. Kansas - if they win the Big 12 tourney. (#1 RPI, we will see how much this stat matters)
  2. Kentucky - if they win the SEC tourney (I wouldn't be surprised if they moved ahead of Kansas if they both won out)
  3. Oklahoma St. - if they win the Big 12 tourney.
  4. Arizona - if they win the Pac 10 tourney (They are not at the top of the list because I am giveing them some West Coast bias along with the elite media's East Coast bias. Well that and the fact that they have a shakier resume than the teams above them)
  5. UConn - if they win the Big East tourney
  6. BC - if they win the Big East tourney (The pundits will claim that BC was not dissed all season long if this happens. Of course they will forget to mention that they were choice 6. Even if all the teams above them lose it still is a long shot)
  7. Louisville - if they win the Conference USA tourney (Very long shot.)
  8. Duke - if the win the ACC tourney (I can't imagine that the committee would give the ACC 3 top seeds.)
  9. Washington (The committee will be real desparate at this point)

If they all lose, I don't have a clue what will happen, but I suppose that Kentucky would get it by default.

Sunday, March 06, 2005

Proposed change to all conference tourney's

So far 2 of 4 #1 seeds of conferences did not win its tournament. I think this is totally unfair. Unfortunately money is the driving factor for these tourneys and crying, whinning, complaining, moaning and pitching a fit will never change this.

So I have a proposal that will change this. The top 2 seeds of each conference should get an automatic bye to the semi-finals. For the low and mid-major conferences this rewards a great season. For the major conferences it lets the top teams win the tourney without having to play 3 games in 3 days.

This is the most fair option. This rewards the top teams for winning. If you think that this is not fair to the other teams. Guess what I think, TOO BAD. It should be tougher for the teams without a quality regular season to get the automatic bid.

I don't care if a conference has 8 teams and this will throw a monkey wrench in creating a bracket. Figure it out. You have all ready sold out your conference champion the least you can do is take a little extra time to reward them for the effort.

Saturday, March 05, 2005

Game Recap (3/5)

Too many games to write them all up

Taking care of business
Louisville, Villanova, Alabama, Vermont, Wisconsin, Utah, LSU, Cincinnati, UConn, Nevada, Oklahoma, Boston College, Michigan St., Pacfic

Won and now in
These teams deserve a write up, but it is obvious that they have finally done enough.
Pittsburgh over Notre Dame
Stanford over Washington
UCLA over Oregon
Texas over Oklahoma St. (most bizarre ending to a game this year)

Lost but still OK
Mississippi St., Washington, Syracuse, Texas Tech (terrible beating they took today), Charlotte, Oklahoma St.

Still Sweating It
DePaul losing to W. Virginia
Still has a solid profile, but they need another win to be sure.

W. Virginia losing to Seton Hall
This is an absolute killer loss for West Virginia. They are squarely on the bubble now. The Big East went from 8 teams to maybe 6 or as little as 5. A first round loss will sweep them into the NIT.

Notre Dame losing to Pittsburgh
Notre Dame is now squarely on the bubble as well. Of the 3 Big East bubble teams they are in the best shape.

Maryland losing to Virgina Tech
Maryland is a very overrated team. I think they may be on the outside looking in at this point. At least they should be. Unfortunately they are probably one of the last teams in. A first round loss in the ACC tourney will send them to the NIT.

Almost There
Iowa St. beats Colorado
Should be enough. They have a better resume than the Big East and ACC bubble teams. Is the late season winning streak what the committee will be thinking about or will the early swoon and almost late collapse be on the committee's mind?

Georgia Tech over Clemson
One of the few bubble teams able to beat Clemson as of late.

Wichita St. over Drake
The win is nice, but N. Iowa's loss was nicer for Wichita St.

Staying Alive
Virginia Tech beats Maryland
Is 15-12 good enough. One of 5 ACC teams that needs a nice tourney run.

Texas A&M beats Baylor
I really like Texas A&M. A high profile upset in the Big 12 tourney might be enough depending on what goes down in the other tourneys. This team is closer to being in than most people realize.

Indiana beats Northwestern
The RPI is too low. If they make it to the Big Ten semi's the RPI might jump up enough to warrent consideration.

On Life Support
N. Iowa loses to SW Missouri St.
The MVC will not get 3 teams. N. Iowa still has a very remote chance if the new RPI is used, which means that they are NIT bound.

Georgetown loses to Providence
The 3rd Big East team on the bubble and the least likely to get in. Georgetown has just fallen apart recently. I cannot see them getting in.

Gone
Miami(Ohio) loses to Marshall
They have the weakest of the mid-major profiles.

Debunking Dumb Theories (Conference strength matters)

Latest theory. Illinois can't win the national championship because of their weak conference. Currently the Big Ten has a conference rank of 5. Let's look at the rank of the some of the previous champion's conference.

2004 UConn 3rd
2003 Syracuse 6th
2002 Maryland 2nd
2001 Duke 3rd
2000 Michigan St. 1st
1999 UConn 5th

* It seems ironic that the Big 10 is the last conference ranked #1 to have a national champion.

So considering the current rank of the Big 10, 33% of the past 6 champions have come from a conference as weak or weaker than Illinois's conference.

Conference RPI numbers are not readily available before then. If anyone can find them please send them to me.

So as you can see, there is a correlation between a major conference and a NCAA champion, but how good the conference is, is irrelevant. The last champion not to come from a major conference was UNLV in 1990. One other point to note, major conferences have better teams so you can't assume that national champs have to be from a major conference they just have the best teams. This theory just doesn't hold.

Now you may argue that the way that the conference rank is calculated is not accurate. Well that is what people point to, to say that the Big 10 is in a down year. If you disagree, show me another metric to use and I will show you that using that metric proves that conference strength does not determine champions.

Friday, March 04, 2005

We can't use stats alone (Rebuttle)

I received an e-mail about a rebuttle to a previous article

The e-mail claims that it can use stats to predict who will make the tournament. Here are their current predictions if the committee uses the Old RPI vs the New RPI.

They system claims to only have an average of 2 teams incorrect over the past 5 years. Even though the teams are numbered no claim is made for their seeding once selected.

I would ignore the New RPI method. There are 2 reasons for this. The first reason is it does not pass the smell test. There are too many teams in the list that are not at large candidates. The second reason is that the selection committee said that this year will not be a breakthrough for mid-major teams. That would exclude the new RPI from any calculations since there are an abundance of these teams with a great RPI.

Using the old RPI the list is fairly accurate. There are some conference leaders from low majors in the at-large list that would never get an at large bid. If they all win the method will be off by about 2 or 3 as the list currently stands. I have no idea if the teams in the list will change if the conference leaders lose in their respected tourney. I will withhold judgement of this method until it gets closer to tourney time. I will post any clarifications I receive about the method.

I do wonder how long this method will work. There are two assumptions the method makes.

1) The selection committee uses the same method to evaluate teams year to year.
2) The selection committee is consistent in applying the method year to year.

First the selection committee is starting to tinker with the metrics used to evaluate teams. This makes both points above invalid. Second teams are getting wise as to how the RPI is calculated and are starting to change the way they schedule. When teams try to manipulate the stats the stats are no longer useful in being an unbaised evaluator of teams. I predict that the RPI will be rendered useless over the next 10 years which will make computer models useless as well. As for now the method is interesting and valid (the old RPI method) and worth a look. I will definately alert you to the final results.

Mariotti Award Winner

Mariotti Award - In honor of the Sun Times writer Jay Mariotti. This is awarded to the author that goes above and beyond the call of duty in trying to prove that your team is better off either losing or being ranked lower than they are.

Today's winner. Is it just me or is the last time you tried this argument when you lost to a sibling. When you lost you tried to convince them that you really wanted to finish second to them. I haven't heard this kind of reasoning since I was 5.

Authors point: It is better to be a #2 seed than a #1 seed.

Rebuttal: Do I need one? I will just use the author's own quote against him.

"Statistically, the 1s have a better chance". Really, you don't say ? Heck I'd rather be a two seed.
Bonus quote Mariotti would be proud of: "Also, considering all the pressure, I'd rather be a 2 seed going into the Madness." Of course we know that #2 seeds have no pressure. Heck with that reasoning why not be a 3 seed they have even less pressure.

As you can see the author is a well deserving recipient.

Basketball Trivia

What old TV show did Dick Vitale have a cameo role in?
Who also had a cameo role as his partner?
What job did they have?

Winner gets a free year's subscription to this site. (No using google) Send me an e-mail or post in the comments.

Thursday, March 03, 2005

Why we can't use stats alone?

For those of you who have complained far and wide about how we cannot use stats alone to seed teams or decide who is in the tournament I agree. Never said we should. They are an interesting guide and fairly accurate predictor about which teams have the stuff and which teams are all fluff. Regardless here is an article that proves your point. The seedings are worth a chuckle or two.

*Note: I am sure that the author is not saying teams should be seeded this way. He is just pointing out how the seedings would be if each team was seeded by their ranking.

Games of the Day (3/2)

This will be short today since I am on the road. Don't expect much till the weekend.

Wake Forest (25-4, 12-3) 98 - Georgia Tech (16-10, 7-8) 91
Wake Forest keeps rolling. Might be the best team in the ACC right now. With Georgia Tech playing NCState next at least one other team besides the big 3 will be at .500 in conference play. With the love the ACC got from the selection committee last year I have to think Georgia Tech is safe if they beat NC State.

Oklahoma St. (21-5, 11-4) 69 - Texas A&M (17-8, 7-8) 63
Oklahoma St. rebounds nicely like you would expect from a Championship caliber team. Texas A&M had a chance to sneak in for a bid with a win here, but it wasn't meant to be.

UConn (20-6, 12-3) 83 - Georgetown (16-10, 8-7) 64
UConn now one win away from sharing a conference title. Syracuse will try to stop them since they have a remote chance to share a Big East title with Boston College and UConn. Georgetown is reeling. 4 losses in a row. Do not give the committee a chance to exclude you at this point. I guarantee they don't want to send 8 teams from a single conference. Now they have a reason not to.

Iowa St. (16-10, 8-7) 67 - Missouri (14-15, 6-9) 49
Rumors are that Missouri already making plans for a press conference after the first day of the Big 12 tournament is completed. Wonder if it will have anything to do with looking for a new coach. Iowa St. gets needed win. I think they are in with another win, but that RPI of 78 is troubling (54 calculated the old way).

Minnesota (20-9, 10-6) 73 - Penn St. (14-14, 6-9)
20 wins, 10 in the Big 10 have to be enough. I have to disagree with the Bubble watch on ESPN. Minnesota has a dance ticket.

Iowa (18-10, 6-9) 74 - Ohio St. (18-11, 7-8)
First time Iowa has put back to back wins since December. This game has nothing to do with the tournament selection. I just wanted to point that out. Iowa reminds me a lot of the Miami Dolphins before Ricky Williams left. They start strong, but always manage to fall apart by the end of the season.

Wednesday, March 02, 2005

If basketball was like football

The following bids would be handed out. Here is your NCAA postseason.

National Championship Game (RPI #1 vs #2):
Illinois vs Kansas

ACC Champ vs Automatic Berth for being RPI #3
N. Carolina vs Oklahoma St.

Automatic Berth for being RPI #4 vs Big East Champ
Wake Forest vs Boston College (They beat UConn)

SEC vs Pac-10
Kentucky vs Washington (Not sure who has the tie breaker, but Lute Olson can cry West coast bias now)

Stop the nightmares!!!!!!

Is it just me or did the end of the Indiana/Wisconsin game remind anybody of how the Flying Illini ended their run?

Missed 3 pointer comes up short. Hits the rim on a funky rebound angle and then the opposition puts in the winning bucket as time expires.

Thought I finally put that out of my mind.

Someone who takes an opposite viewpoint

Here is an article that thinks that the ACC is overrated.

The author makes three points for his argument

  • The ACC is not getting as many tournament bids as the Big East
  • The ACC has a losing record against the Big East
  • Teams came in from the Big East and did better in conference play in the ACC than what they did in the Big East.

The first point is meaningless. How good a conference is has no bearing on how many tournament teams the conference gets. I remember a few years ago when the Big Ten got 6 teams and went 1-6 in the tourney. The second and third points are interesting, I'd have to dig further to see if that is actually true and see if there is any reason why.

He forgets to mention that the ACC is by far the best conference when facing the Top 25. He also doesn't get to why the ACC is overrated. He argues that the Big East is good. The ACC is definately good as well.

One point to add about the Big East from his article. Yes the Big East is deep, but they are not going deep into the tournament. Look at my tournament projections on the side and compare the resumes of the ACC vs the Big East teams. The ACC resumes are much better.

One other thing, how did I get in the business of defending the ACC? I think I am getting myself kicked out of Big 10 circles.

Thanks to William for the heads up.

Tuesday, March 01, 2005

Games of the Day (3/1)

Wisconsin (19-7, 10-5) 62 - Indiana (14-12, 9-6) 60
Ugly end to this game, missed free throws, bad fouls and horrendous rebounding. Crushing blow to Indiana. This should end their add large hopes. Wisconsin gets the 3rd seed in the Big Ten tourney and avoids Illinois until the finals. (if they make it that far).

St. Joesph's (16-10, 13-2) 69 - George Washington (18-7, 10-5) 56
This game confirms what we already know, neither is getting an at large bid.

Clemson (15-13, 5-10) 66 - Virginia Tech (14-12, 7-8) 64
Eazy tournament guage. If you are the same number of games above .500 as Clemson you are not getting in. Clemson keeps killing the bubble teams.

Mississippi St. (21-8, 9-6) 57 - Arkansas (18-10, 6-9) 55
Mississippi St. is in. Too bad Arkansas could not get it done in conference play. They are not as bad as the 6-9 conference record indicates.

New Tourney Projections

Conference Bids
Big East (8)
Big 12(6)
ACC (5)
SEC (5)
Conference USA (4)
Pac 10 (4)
Big 10 (4)
MVC (2)
WCC (2)

Last 4 out
Texas A&M
Miami (FL)
Miami (OH)
UTEP

A welcome and a FAQ

Thanks to Dave Sez for the nice words and link. Illini fans might want to check out his site to get some ACC news. Sorry, but the ACC does play real good basketball and it is not heresy to say so. The ACC is a facinating conference this year with quality play.

ACC fans may want to check out a few of the sites listed as well. They are good supporters of this site and deserve a few hits even if you don't like the teams involved. I would like to specifically point out Yoco Hoops. This is a great site for basketball discussion. Over here at the NCAA Madness blog all the good articles get published there as well since it is a very high quality site that mine does not live up to yet. You will find all the latest news there that you need to know.

Please check out Big Ten Wonk as well. Very helpful in getting me started.

Now that I have made my thank yous, I have also decided to answer a couple of questions that have been brought up about my articles.

Q. The Top Dogs from the ACC have more Top 25 victories than your analysis shows in your article about Is the ACC overrated. Why do you only show the record as 2-1?

A. The article was written a few days ago using Saturday's RPI numbers. The top dogs are now 4-1 against the Top 25. Major conference team's RPI's and SOS tend to rise as the season goes on and can be very volite as well.

Q. It sounds like you were hoping to prove the ACC was overated.

A. I was (at least that the bottom teams were). The numbers don't lie. They are good top to bottom. I had a choice with my article, either I can throw away the article or tip my cap to the ACC. I decided to tip my cap and was part of the reason that I sent the article to a few ACC sites so they can have the data to back up their assertion as the best conference in 2005. The other part was for the pub.

Q. Strength of schedule is a big determining factor in margin of victory.

A. True at the beginning of the season, but it will even out in conference play. Re: Boston College. Also look at Illinois over Wake Forest, Cincinatti and Gonzaga. Also strength of schedule is hard to calculate since a couple wins over +200 RPI opponents will kill this portion of an RPI SOS number. See my article Who has the higher strength of schedule to see how strength of schedule can be misleading. Kansas has the non-conference profile of Team A (to a sickening degree). That is why they can lose about 2-3 more games and still be #1 in the RPI.

Q. You cannot predict who will win the tournament by the margin of victory that they have.

A. True. I am not trying to predict who will win. If I did that you would be paying a fortune for my wisdom. What I am predicting is the teams that have the greatest chance to win. The great thing about the NCAA tournament is that anything can happen.