Tuesday, March 01, 2005

A welcome and a FAQ

Thanks to Dave Sez for the nice words and link. Illini fans might want to check out his site to get some ACC news. Sorry, but the ACC does play real good basketball and it is not heresy to say so. The ACC is a facinating conference this year with quality play.

ACC fans may want to check out a few of the sites listed as well. They are good supporters of this site and deserve a few hits even if you don't like the teams involved. I would like to specifically point out Yoco Hoops. This is a great site for basketball discussion. Over here at the NCAA Madness blog all the good articles get published there as well since it is a very high quality site that mine does not live up to yet. You will find all the latest news there that you need to know.

Please check out Big Ten Wonk as well. Very helpful in getting me started.

Now that I have made my thank yous, I have also decided to answer a couple of questions that have been brought up about my articles.

Q. The Top Dogs from the ACC have more Top 25 victories than your analysis shows in your article about Is the ACC overrated. Why do you only show the record as 2-1?

A. The article was written a few days ago using Saturday's RPI numbers. The top dogs are now 4-1 against the Top 25. Major conference team's RPI's and SOS tend to rise as the season goes on and can be very volite as well.

Q. It sounds like you were hoping to prove the ACC was overated.

A. I was (at least that the bottom teams were). The numbers don't lie. They are good top to bottom. I had a choice with my article, either I can throw away the article or tip my cap to the ACC. I decided to tip my cap and was part of the reason that I sent the article to a few ACC sites so they can have the data to back up their assertion as the best conference in 2005. The other part was for the pub.

Q. Strength of schedule is a big determining factor in margin of victory.

A. True at the beginning of the season, but it will even out in conference play. Re: Boston College. Also look at Illinois over Wake Forest, Cincinatti and Gonzaga. Also strength of schedule is hard to calculate since a couple wins over +200 RPI opponents will kill this portion of an RPI SOS number. See my article Who has the higher strength of schedule to see how strength of schedule can be misleading. Kansas has the non-conference profile of Team A (to a sickening degree). That is why they can lose about 2-3 more games and still be #1 in the RPI.

Q. You cannot predict who will win the tournament by the margin of victory that they have.

A. True. I am not trying to predict who will win. If I did that you would be paying a fortune for my wisdom. What I am predicting is the teams that have the greatest chance to win. The great thing about the NCAA tournament is that anything can happen.

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