Tuesday, March 29, 2005

Illinois vs Louisville Preview

(1) Illinois vs (4) Louisville
This is the early game on Saturday. Check back tomorrow for the North Carolina/Michigan St. preview.

Key 1: Louisville was successful against West Virginia because they were able to get easy buckets on transition. Illinois had problems with Arizona because they were not able to get set on defense and allowed easy buckets in the paint. With that said, Illinois should be able to stop the easy buckets on transition that fueled the Louisville comeback. Louisville must not let the Illini get set on defense. This is the key to breaking them down.

Key 2: Illinois had success with Arizona when they stepped up the pressure on defense, especially on the perimeter. This is something that Louisville may have trouble with. If Illinois can contain the speed of Louisville and contest the shots on the perimeter they will have a good night. Louisville must remember this formula, lazy pass = 2 points for Illinois.

Key 3: The key for Louisville is to get those points in the paint, unfortunately that is not their game. One has to wonder if the middle was open for Arizona because there was so much focus on Stoudamire or if the Illini truly are that vulnerable on the inside. Garcia better watch out, if Williams can handle Stoudamire, then he can easily handle Garcia. O'Bannon and Dean must step up big for Louisville again.

Key 4: Foul trouble. If Garcia fouls out against the Illini, Louisville is going home. Louisville has to take it to Powell, he has shown to be prone to foul trouble all year. They can also put Augustine in foul trouble, but the Illini showed that they can win without him. While Augustine was good in the first three rounds, he had a terrible game against Arizona.

Key 5: Injuries. Is Augustine and Head at 100%?

Key 6: Turnovers. Arizona exposed the Illini passing game by stepping into the passing lanes and picked off lots of passes for turnovers and easy baskets.

Prediction: Illinois (Not as high scoring as you would think, in the 70s only)
Louisville will not be able to expose Illinois on the inside. Williams will handle Garcia. Illinois has a defense suited for handling quick teams and guards. Louisville does not have the defense to stop Illinois. With two great offensive teams, defense will be the difference.

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