North Carolina vs Michigan St. Preview

(1) North Carolina vs (5) Michigan St.
This is going to be an interesting game. The big question of this game is "Will North Carolina be able to run over the Spartans or will the Spartans be able to slow down the game and dominate the boards like they have all season long?"

Key 1: Pace. As said above North Carolina likes to run. It is the reason they beat Wisconsin. They score so many easy buckets in transition, that teams have to play great just to hang with the Tar Heels. North Carolina had trouble scoring against the set defense of Wisconsin (no problems in transition though). Michigan St. is able the run, but they will not be able to keep up the entire game at a fast pace. As long as the spurts of Carolina are short and few this will not be an advantage. Michigan St. does not have a chance if this is the case.

Key 2: Rebounding. Michigan St. is a great rebounding team. They usually have the advantage on the boards. For the season, North Carolina has averaged 4 more rebounds than the Spartans. This is a must for Michigan St. If they get beat at the boards it will be a long night for Spartan fans. If will mean the Tar Heals will have the speed and the size plus extra possessions as a bonus.

Key 3: Defense. After the Wisconsin game I am not sure what to think of the Tar Heels. Lets look at the times Wisconsin scored over 80 points this season. Western Carolina 89, UNC Greensboro 85, North Carolina 82. Must be a Carolina thing. Not good company to be in. On offense N. Carolina has a + 10 PPG advantage while Michigan St. has a +6 PPG advantage over the Tar Heels. Michigan St. has a huge advantage here.

Key 4: Shooting. Michigan St. must shoot well. They are not as good of a shooting team as North Carolina. If Michigan St. has a good night they will win (50%+). Plain and simple. You only need to be on one night to eliminate someone. Michigan St. needs to at least shoot in the mid 40s to stay competitive. Anything under 40% and they are done. North Carolina has a greater margin of error than the Spartans in this area.

Key 5: Turnovers. Michigan St. takes care of the ball well, North Carolina can play a little too fast and loose. Michigan St. has a huge advantage here. North Carolina can not get careless when they push the ball up the court.

Key 6: Free throws: Michigan St. is great from the line. North Carolina is OK. Is North Carolina going to shoot like they did in the ACC tourney where they lost or like they did against Wisconsin when they sealed the deal?

Prediction: Michigan St. Defense and turnovers are going to be the difference. North Carolina is not going to be able to run and they will lose a close one down the stretch.