Monday, February 28, 2005

This Week's Articles

Expect a tournament status update Tuesday evening. Enough interesting outcomes have happened to warrent an update.

Later in the week expect a follow up article about what other qualities Championship teams have.

There will also be an interesting article on determining which teams will make an early exit from the tournament. I will look at teams that got upset and what qualities they all shared.

Even if you are not an Illini fan, please check out Illinois Loyalty . He enjoyed my article about margin of victory and sent a lot of traffic my way and I would like to return the favor. Since I do not ask for money or post advertising, please click over and take a look at what he has to offer. A very professional site. Thank you for the front page splash.

Games of the Day (2/28)

Pittsburgh (19-7, 9-6) 72 - Boston College (23-3, 12-3) 50
Is it just me or is Boston College looking more and more like just another decent team from the Big East. It looks like Boston College finally got the memo that the low scoring margin should correlate to a worse record than they currently have. Huge road win by Pittsburgh. They just removed the little doubt left about their tourney status. This will probably knock them out of the 8-9 game and into at least a 7 seed. A much better place to be.

Oklahoma (22-6, 11-4) 74 - Texas (19-9, 8-7) 58
The win Texas had over Missouri is looming huge now as Texas will most likely finish at .500 in conference. Just enough to make the tourney. If they don't get healthy quick they are about as sure a bet as can be for a first round exit. Oklahoma continues to roll. The margin of victory should not come as a surprise to anyone.

N. Iowa (20-9, 11-7) 67 - Wichita St. (19-8, 12-6) 66
Wichita St. is now gone from the tournament. Look at their resume. @SW Missouri St., San Francisco, S. Illinois, @N. Iowa, SW Missouri St. That is the only Top 100 victories they have. Couple that with 8 losses (2 in a row) and they don't have enough to get in. N. Iowa may get their spot but they are still 1 game behind in the standings. The MVC will be an interesting tourney to turn in for. Good win for N. Iowa. They are now in the conversation of teams that may dance.

Gonzaga (23-4) 87 - N. Colorado (4-18) 60
I hate these late season matchups between a great team and a dog. Expect the Zags RPI to drop a little bit. Can't we get more matchups like UCLA vs Notre Dame instead of these types of games.

Wow Illinois is good!

Illinois is so good they can take the weekend off and still win the Big Ten title outright.

Sunday, February 27, 2005

Is the ACC Overrated? (the Big East as well?)

This is probably one of the most debated questions in college basketball by its fans. Arguments usually fall into two camps. The first camp is ACC fans and the East Coast media. They argue that the ACC is the best conference and no one is close to matching up to it. The second camp is everybody who is not an ACC fan. They are sick of hearing about the ACC. The second camp will agree that North Carolina, Wake Forest and Duke are good (there will be arguments about how good) but they think that the rest of the ACC teams would get beat no matter what top conference you put them in.

To determine how good the ACC is I will compare the four conferences that are slated to get the most Tournament bids. The conferences are the ACC, Big 12, Big East and Conference USA. The records below only deal with non-conference games. It didn't make sense to reward a conference for playing games against itself.

The top 25 and 100 teams are based on the RPI numbers.

Top 3 TeamsBottom TeamsAll Teams
Conferencevs Top 25vs Top 100vs Top 25vs Top 100vs Top 25vs Top 100
ACC2-1 (.667)5-1 (.833)5-4 (.555)20-15 (.571)7-5 (.583)25-16 (.610)
Big 125-4 (.555)18-4 (.818)1-2 (.333)11-16 (.407)6-6 (.500)29-20 (.592)
Big East0-3 (.000)13-3 (.813)1-5 (.167)18-16 (.529)1-8 (.111)31-19 (.620)
Conference USA0-3 (.000)8-4 (.667)1-8 (.111)14-27 (.341)1-11 (.083)22-31 (.415)


There are some interesting details when looking at the chart above. First the ACC top dogs do not play a lot of quality competition out of conference. However they do win the games they play. The only loss is to Illinois. You can't dock any team for a loss at Illinois.

The second item you notice is that the Big East and Conference USA cannot beat the top competition. I was particularly surprised about the Big East numbers.

The ACC definately has the best teams top to bottom. Look at the record vs the Top 100. Only the ACC and Big East have a winning record. If you dig into the numbers further you see that they bottom part of the ACC has a winning record vs the Top 25 with 9 games played as well. No conference is even close to that. The bottom of the Big East and especially Conference USA are terrible against the Top 25.

Looking at the numbers above the ACC is clearly the best. To what degree they are the best is debatable. Unfortunately, they have earned the respect they get.

Games of the Day (2/27)

Here are the games that matter for today.

Indiana (14-11, 9-5) 78 - Michigan St. (20-5, 11-3) 74 OT
Huge win for Indiana. They stay on life support for another day. Another huge game at Wisconsin on Tuesady. If Indiana wins that one then we can start the tournament talk. (Notice I said start the talk) Indiana perfect in the Big Ten at home. They are 3-8 on the road this year, so I'm not too optimistic about the Hoosiers chances Tuesday.

Villanova (19-6, 9-5) 67 - Georgetown (16-9, 8-6) 56
Right after I question how questionable their play away from home is, Villanova wins a nice game on the road. Good job. This loss doesn't kill Georgetown, but they might want to win another game before the conference tourney. A win @UConn would be impressive.

Wake Forest (24-4, 11-3) 90 - Virginia (13-12, 4-10) 68
Wake Forest continues its march towards a #1 seed. Hoping for a Duke win over North Carolina so they can have the #1 seed in the ACC tourney.

Wisconsin (18-7, 9-5) 64 - Ohio St. (18-10, 7-7) 56
Wisconsin gets rare road win. Need to keep winning away from Madison to prove they can make a deep tourney run. Big game against Indiana next. If Wisconsin loses they will be the #4 seed in the Big 10 tourney and will have to face Illinois in the semi-finals instead of the finals. They only thing Ohio St. has left to play for is to say they were the only team who beat Illinois in the regular season.

Nebraska (13-12, 6-8) 76 - Iowa St. (15-10, 7-7) 69
Two huge wins in a row for Nebraska. Winning at the right time, but way too late. Iowa St. goes from definately out to in to on the way out. Iowa St. cannot lose again. Bubble teams are starting to win, well except for this one.

Maine (13-14, 8-10) 87 - Vermont (21-6, 16-2) 66
If you are from a major conference you can lose these every so often, if you are from a mid-major conference you can even lose one of these. if you are from the American East you cannot lose these. Vermont's cannot lose another game before the conference final. I am not sure if they can even lose that now.

UCLA (16-9, 9-7) 75 - Notre Dame (16-9, 8-6) 65
A good non-conference battle for a change late in the season. Notre Dame is not in position to be dropping games. With the big East having the potential to get 8 teams you don't want to be at the bottom of the list in case the committee gets cold feet about letting that many teams in.

If you are Notre Dame you have to think about this. Stanford beats UCLA twice, UCLA beats Notre Dame. All three are bubble teams. Not a fair way to compare Stanford to Notre Dame, but that may be the logic used if there are 2 spots and these 3 teams left. Plus the Pac-10 is rated higher. May also be unfair, but when you are team #8 from a conference people are going to be using logic to keep you out instead of trying to get you in.

Florida (18-7, 10-4) 66 - S. Carolina (14-11, 6-8) 65
That sound you heard was S. Carolina's bubble popping. They were on life support as it was. Florida just took them off life support. They are dead.

Kansas (21-4, 11-3) 81 - Oklahoma St. (20-5, 10-4) 79
I hope the excitement of this game is a good indicator to how good the tournament will be. Kansas turns things around in a big way. Huge win. I am not sure what Oklahoma St. was trying to accomplish with that last shot. They had more than enough time to get a quality shot but couldn't. After driving up the lane at will all game, the lane was shut down at the end and Ok. St. didn't know what to do. As I predicted Simien had a big game 32 pts and 12 boards. Nice way for Kansas to break out of a slump.

Point to remember: in the tournament you need to usually win 4 tough games in a row if you are a high seed. Kansas is 1-3 in the last 4 tough games.

North Carolina (24-3, 12-2) 85 - Maryland (16-10, 7-8) 83
Maryland with a nice comback at the end of the game, but comes up short at the end. As usual Maryland plays the best teams tough. If they played the easy teams tough they wouldn't be on the bubble. The win solidifies the #1 spot for Carolina. They would have to lose 3 straight to even be considered for a #2 seed. Given the enameration with this team I don't know if even that would move them now.

Saturday, February 26, 2005

When basketball is like Chemistry class

I had a Chemistry class back when I was in College that had a terrible homework policy. Homework absolutely had to be done. No problem, but doing a good job would not help your grade. Doing a bad job on the homework or not turning it in would cause your grade to drop.

This is similar to these basketball games. Wins will not help the teams involved, but a loss will hurt their seedings. All the teams took care of business.

Syracuse 91 - Providence 66
Boston College 70 - Seton Hall 58
Duke 58 - St. John's 47
DePaul 53 - St. Louis 49
Oklahoma 103 - Baylor 60
W. Virginia 76 - Rutgers 58
Charlotte 81 - S. Miss 58
Cincinnatti 89 - TCU 74
Utah 69 - BYU 60
LSU 77 - Auburn 64
Mississippi St. 71 - Mississippi 68
St. Mary's 86 - San Diego 83
Nevada 76 - Fresno St. 63
Holy Cross 66 - Army 49
Pacific 75 - Northridge 61

Games of the Day (2/26)

Texas (19-8, 8-6) 63 - Missouri (14-14, 6-8) 51
Texas absolutely needed this one. Texas has finally reached the point where they can lose all their games before the tournament and still make it. They are playing for seeding now.

Kentucky (22-3, 13-1) 78 - Alabama (21-6, 10-4) 71
Who said Kentucky can't win a big game on the road. Kentucky stakes its claim for a #1 seed.

S. Illinois (24-6, 14-3) 65 - Wichita St. (19-7, 12- 5) 55
S. Illinois clinches the Missouri Valley title. Wichita St. may be at the point where they have to make the Missouri Valley title game or it may be the NIT for them.

Rhode Island (5-20, 3-11) 65 - St. Joe's (15-10, 12-2) 60
Best way to impress the committee when you are on life support. Lose to a 4-20 team. Can we finally stop the St. Joe's automatic tournament bid chatter now. St. Joe's is now 3-9 on the road.

Minnesota (19-9, 9-6) 59 - Purdue (7-18, 3-11) 57
Minnesota comes back from 15 down in the 2nd half to avoid another disastrous loss. Minnesota is now 1 win away from the tournament.

Georgia Tech (16-9, 7-7) 76 - Miami (16-10, 7-8) 72
Georgia Tech suddenly looking much better. If they win the finale against Clemson it should be enough. A win at Wake Forest would be gravy. While I think the ACC bubble teams are overrated, when you compare them against other bubble teams they don't look so bad. Miami's last game is @Duke. They are in trouble.

NC State (16-11, 6-8) 74 - Virginia Tech (14-11, 7-7) 54
NC State is still on life support. The quality of bubble teams keeps both of these teams in the conversation.

Texas A&M (18-7, 7-7) 85 - Texas Tech (17-8, 9-5) 65
This moves Texas Tech off of life support. Can the Big-12 really get 7 teams in? What a statement game. While many bubble teams are playing their way out. Texas A&M is playing their way in.

Washington (23-4, 14-3) 93 - Arizona (24-5, 14-3) 85
Game of the day. Washington looked good. Washington making a statement along with Kentucky on why it should get the last #1 seed.

Stanford (16-10, 10-6) 58 - Oregon (13-12, 5-11) 56
Stanford gets a needed win and avoids letting the Oregon teams sweep them out of the tournament. Next up the Washington teams. We recommend sweeping them to avoid unneeded stress on selection Sunday.

UConn (19-6, 11-3) 73 - Pittsburgh (18-7, 8-6) 64
UConn still trying to play for position. With Pittsburgh's recent performance I'd like to move them to the bubble, but with the weakness of the bubble teams Pittsburgh is still looking good. They may want to win another game or two before the regular season ends. The way they are playing they could be staring down the Illini in a second round game. Seems a fair reward at this point.

Louisville (24-4, 12-2) 53 - Memphis (16-12, 9-5) 44
Louisville comes back from a 10 point 2nd half deficit to win by 9. Louisville makes it's statement for a #1 seed. Nice statement, but they are not going to get it unless a lot of teams fall. Memphis is in bigger trouble. I still can't see this team going anywhere but the NIT. 44 points ouch!

Friday, February 25, 2005

Tournament Status of Teams (2/25 - Teams on Life Support)

Here are the teams that are on life support. They need a miracle to occur plus a little help on top of the miracle to get a bid.

RPI(Old) - The RPI as calculated this year (vs the RPI calculated in previous years)
R/N - Road and Neutral site record
L10 - Record in last 10 games
Good win - A win against a Top 50 RPI team
Bad Loss - A loss against a team ranked lower than 100

Atlantic-10
St. Joseph's (15-9, 12-1, RPI 69(80), 3-8 vs Top 100, R/N 7-8, L10: 8-2)
Good Wins: Davidson
Bad Losses: @Dayton
The question: "How can you leave St Joe's out of the tournament?" The answer: 3-8 vs the top 100. Look at all the teams above them. Let me know how many did that bad vs the Top 100.

ACC
NC State (15-11, 5-8, RPI 88(106), 6-8 vs Top 100, R/N 5-6, L10: 4-6)
Good Wins: Georgia Tech, @Georgia Tech, Maryland
Bad Losses: @St. Johns, @Virginia Tech, Florida St.
Too many ACC teams to leap frog at this point.

Big-12
Texas A&M (17-7, 6-7, RPI 85(63), 5-6 vs Top 100, R/N 2-5, L10: 5-5)
Good Wins: Texas
Bad Losses: @Nebraska
I didn't know it was possible to play this few road games this late into the season. Too many teams ahead of them. The Big-12 is not going to send more than 6.

Big-10
Indiana (13-11, 8-5, RPI 83(52), 3-10 vs Top 100, R/N 3-8, L10: 6-4)
Good Wins: Wisconsin, Minnesota
Bad Losses: @Northwestern
They have one thing in common with Wisconsin. They have the same record in the Big-10. They have one thing that is not in common with Wisconsin. They are not going to the NCAA tournament. 3-10 vs the Top 100. Could they actually have a shot at the dance with back to back wins against Michigan St. and Wisconsin? Yes, but it won't happen.

Colonial Athletic Association
Old Dominion (24-5, 14-3, RPI 35(59), 9-3 vs Top 100, R/N 9-4, L10: 7-3)
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: @ Texas A&M Corpus Cristi
A 35 RPI would have had a chance last year. Not this year with the new inflated numbers.

SEC
South Carolina (14-10, 6-7, RPI 77(53), 5-8 vs Top 100, R/N 7-8, L10: 5-5)
Good Wins: Kentucky
Bad Losses: @Tennessee, Auburn
If the SEC was stronger they would be a bubble team. South Carolina needs more than a win against Kentucky for its resume. They have one more chance to impress vs Florida before the conference tournament.

Tournament Status of Teams (2/25 - The true bubble)

Here are the bubble teams. These resumes all have flaws. You can make a better case for not including these teams than you can for including them. Check back later tonight for the teams that are on life support. As was indicated in the other post there are only 5 spots remaining. Too bad I don’t know if 5 are actually worthy.

RPI(Old) - The RPI as calculated this year (vs the RPI calculated in previous years)
R/N - Road and Neutral site record
L10 - Record in last 10 games
Good win - A win against a Top 50 RPI team
Bad Loss - A loss against a team ranked lower than 100

American East:
Vermont (21-6, 16-2, RPI(Old):23(42), 4-4 vs Top 100, R/N: 9-6, L10: 7-3)
Good Wins: @Holy Cross
Bad Losses: @American, @Maine
From In to a bubble team in one loss. It doesn't seem fair. Such is life from a small conference. Vermont now has a matching black eye to go along with that American loss. Vermont please win the conference tournament. You've had a great season don't blow it now. One more loss might finish Vermont off, especially if it is early in the conference tourney.

(2/25)Vermont has done about as well as they can for a school in a small conference. They played Kansas tough on the road and won all the games they should have. That loss to American is a black eye, but the committee wouldn't dare leave them out at this point.

ACC
Georgia Tech (16-9, 7-7, RPI 50(36), 5-8 vs Top 100, R/N 4-6, L10: 5-5)
Good Wins: Miami, Wake Forest
Bad Losses: Virginia Tech
Projected Seed: 9
(3/1) What a difference a few days make. Georgia Tech wins and lots of teams are dropping like flies around them. They are in good shape all of a sudden. All they have to do is take care of business against Clemson in the last game of the season. Not an easy task for ACC bubble teams lately.

(2/25)They aren’t going anywhere but the NIT until they get a winning record over the last 10 games. 4-6 in the last 10, 5-8 vs the Top 100. Not good. The only thing saving them is the win against Wake Forest.

Big East
West Virginia (18-8, 8-7, RPI 55(41), 5-7 vs Top 100, R/N 6-4, L10: 7-3)
Good Wins: @LSU, @Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh
Bad Losses: (N)Marshall
(3/1) All they have to do is beat Seton Hall. There are no teams that can jump them at this point without them losing. It is their bid to lose.

(2/25) They beat the easy teams and lost to the tough ones. The quintessential definition of a bubble team.

Georgetown (16-9, 8-6, RPI 61(68), 5-8 vs Top 100, R/N 6-5, L10: 5-5)
Good Wins: @Davidson, @Villanova, @Pittsburgh, W. Virginia
Bad Losses: @St.John’s Projected Seed: 11
(3/1)That win @Villanova will help Georgetown stand out from the competition. One more win should be enough. That RPI is starting to become a concern for Georgetown.

(2/25)That St. John’s loss was a killer. Can someone explain to me again why Iowa St., Texas and Maryland are considered safer bets to dance?

Big 12
Iowa St. (15-10, 7-7, RPI 79(58), 6-7 vs Top 100, R/N 3-7, L10: 7-3)
Good Wins: Oklahoma, @Texas, Texas Tech, @Kansas
Bad Losses: @Xavier, @Kansas St., Nebraska
Projected Seed: 12
(3/1)From almost in on the 25th to just about out on 3/1. Iowa St. turning things around again. This time for the worst. A drop of 19 points in the RPI since we last checked in with them.

(2/25)How does a team go 3-7 on the road losing to Xavier and Kansas St and then win at Kansas? Iowa St. is finally turning things around at the right time. 7-3 in the last 10 is not bad at this stage of the season.

Missouri Valley Conference
N. Iowa (20-9, 11-7, RPI 35(40), 6-6 vs Top 100, R/N 8-7, L10: 7-3)
Good Wins: S. Illinois, @Wichita St.
Bad Losses: @Evansville, @Bradley, @Drake
Projected Seed: 12
(3/1) Took Wichita St.'s spot. The MVC deserves two spots. The team to advance to the final against S. Illinois will get this spot. This is a rare case where a tournament spot is reserved for a conference.

Pac-10
Stanford (16-10, 10-6, RPI 37(42), 7-8 vs Top 100, R/N 7-9, L10: 7-3)
Good Wins: Arizona, @UCLA, UCLA
Bad Losses: (N) Tennessee, @Santa Clara
Projected Seed: 9
(3/1) Living life on the edge. If they keep playing teams close they are eventually going to be burned. They win, others lose and they find themselves with a 9 seed. I am not sure if it is deserved though.

(2/25)If the last tournament spot comes down to UCLA and Stanford, Stanford is in good shape.

Tournament Status of Teams (2/25 - Teams that are looking good)

Next we look at the teams that are looking good for a bid. As you will see the resumes of these teams are not of the same quality as the teams that are in. Check back later tonight for the teams that are truly on the bubble. Counting these teams with the teams that already have bids only leaves 6 remaining open spots.

Almost every single bubble team and team on this list dropped in the RPI. I am not sure exactly what that means.

RPI(Old) - The RPI as calculated this year (vs the RPI calculated in previous years)
R/N - Road and Neutral site record
L10 - Record in last 10 games
Good win - A win against a Top 50 RPI team
Bad Loss - A loss against a team ranked lower than 100

ACC
Maryland (16-10, 7-8, RPI 36(29), 6-8 vs Top 100, R/N 4-7, L10: 5-5)
Good Wins: @Duke, Duke, Georgia Tech
Bad Losses: Clemson, @Clemson
Projected Seed: 9
(3/1) Looking good maybe isn't the proper designation for Maryland. Maybe looking good enough is. If they beat Virginia Tech they are fine. If they lose they have to sweat it out. Maryland probably has done enough to warrent a bid.

(2/25)The predictions are on what the committee is going to do, not on what should happen. Just because you are in the ACC should mean squat. You should actually have to win more than a couple quality games. Terrible on the road and against the Top 100. This team is sinking fast.

Big-12
Texas (19-9, 8-7, RPI 47(35), 4-9 vs Top 100, R/N 4-7, L10: 5-5)
Good Wins: Oklahoma St., Texas Tech
Bad Losses: None
Projected Seed: 10
(3/1) Win against Missouri gets Texas to at least .500 in conference. You can definately make a case why they are playing their way out of the tournament. The problem is you have to find a team to replace them

(2/25)Texas cannot win on the road. This is another team that is sinking fast. Like Maryland, conference affiliation is going to sneak this team in. Texas is going to be going home from the dance early.

Big East

Notre Dame (16-9, 8-6, RPI 53(36), 6-8 vs Top 100, R/N 4-6, L10: 4-6)
Good Wins: Villanova, UConn, Boston College
Bad Losses: @Michigan
Projected Seed: 8
(3/1) Beat all the right teams in the Big East. Win against Rutgers should be enough. 4-6 in the last 10 shows Notre Dame is not on the right track. They need to start playing better than they did against UCLA. That was one of the most uninspiring performances I have seen in a while.

(2/25)That win over Boston College will go a long way in impressing the selection committee. I can’t understand why Maryland is considered a safer bet over Notre Dame either. This is coming from someone who is not a fan of the Big East either.

Big-10
Minnesota (19-9, 9-6, RPI 48(30), 6-7 vs Top 100, R/N 5-6, L10: 6-4)
Good Wins: Holy Cross, Wisconsin
Bad Losses: Florida St., Northwestern
Projected Seed: 10
(3/1)1 win away from being a lock.

(2/25)Big 10 supporters can’t complain about getting no love. Minnesota’s resume is way too shaky to be sitting on this side of the bubble.

Pac 10
UCLA (16-9, 9-7, RPI 39(35), 7-8 vs Top 100, R/N 6-6, L10: 6-4)
Good Wins: Washington
Bad Losses: @Oregon St.,
Projected Seed: 8
(3/1) Only the two Oregon schools at home stand in the way of their tournament bid.

(2/25)California Better hope they are not fighting with Stanford for that last tournament spot. Just win at Notre Dame and all ills will be forgotten. (or enough to be tournament bound)

SEC
Florida (18-7, 10-4, RPI 32(27), 6-5 vs Top 100, R/N 5-4, L10: 7-3)
Good Wins: Alabama
Bad Losses: @Florida St., Tennessee
(3/1) They probably have done enough to make the tournament. A win at Kentucky at the season finally would improve their standing considerably.

(2/25)A loss to Tennessee in football is considered a good loss, not in basketball. A good example of why the SEC is down this year. Florida is clearly hit big by the change in RPI calculation.

Mississippi St. (19-8, 7-6, RPI 30(32), 6-6 vs Top 100, R/N 9-7, L10: 5-5)
Good Wins: (N) St. Marys, Florida, Arkansas Little-Rock
Bad Losses: @Tennessee, @Auburn
Projected Seed: 8
(3/1) Looking better all the time. A chance to get revenge against Alabama for the beating they took earlier in the season. Mississippi St. is most likely in at this point.

(2/25)Obviously the best resume of the bubble teams. Probably not a fair categorization of this team. If they keep winning I will move them up.

LSU (17-8, 10-4, RPI 26(26), 8-6 vs Top 100, R/N 5-7, L10: 8-2)
Good Wins: Mississippi St. @ Mississippi St., Florida, Alabama
Bad Losses: @ Southern Mississippi, @Tennessee
Projected Seed: 8
(3/1) They probably have done enough to be a lock as well. They just need to avoid a let down the rest of the way. No real competition before the SEC tourney.

(2/25)Loss at Southern Mississippi. Ouch. Good thing that loss is ancient history. LSU doing exactly what the selection committee wants to see. Good record in the last 10 games. 3 straight Top 50 victories. The only weakness is that 3-7 Road/Neutral record. That is a good indicator of a team that will exit early.

WCC
St. Mary’s (23-7, 10-3, RPI 32(46), 3-2 vs Top 100, R/N 8-6, L10: 8-2)
Good Wins: Gonzaga
Bad Losses: (N) Memphis, @Rutgers, @Hawaii, Santa Clara, @Santa Clara
Projected Seed: 10
(3/1) Two real at large bids from the WCC. St. Mary's is most likely in, they just have to make it to the conference finals to guarantee that bid.

(2/25)St. Mary’s is looking good right now. They have Gonzaga to thank. The win over Gonzaga puts them in. The reason St. Mary’s is in is sympathy from other small schools getting shafted along with another way for the committee to reward Gonzaga.

Tournament Status of Teams (2/25 - Teams that are In)

First we will look at the teams that have taken care of business. Not as interesting to discuss as the bubble, but the winners should have top billing. Check back later tonight for the rest of the analysis.

Below is the current status of all the teams looking for a tournament bid. There are 31 automatic bids. Counting the automatic bids and assuming that a team that are already in wins the conference tournament. There are 15 available bids still up for grabs.

In
The following teams have done enough to earn a tournament bid.

RPI(Old) - The RPI as calculated this year (vs the RPI calculated in previous years)
R/N - Road and Neutral site record
L10 - Record in last 10 games
Good win - A win against a Top 50 RPI team
Bad Loss - A loss against a team ranked lower than 100

ACC:
North Carolina (24-3, 12-2 RPI(Old): 6(3), 14-2 vs Top 100, R/N: 11-3 L10: 9-1)
Good Wins: Kentucky, Vermont, @UConn, Maryland, Georgia Tech, @Maryland
Bad Losses: @Santa Clara
Projected Seed: 1
(3/1)Tough road win that puts Maryland on the ropes. Win against Duke in the finale and the ACC title is theirs.

(2/25)Is any justification needed for North Carolina? As long as they avoid the deer in the headlights look they had at the end of the Duke game, this team will be playing in April. Interesting how North Carolina is dubbed the best team, but they can't even beat the top competition in their conference. No wins against Duke or Wake. Have I bought too much into the North Carolina hype?

Wake Forest (24-4, 11-3 RPI(Old) 4(5), 15-3 vs Top 100, R/N: 9-4, L10:8-2)
Good Wins: (N)Arizona, Texas, Maryland, North Carolina, @Cincinnati, Duke
Bad Losses: @Florida St.
Projected Seed: 1
(3/1) Wake Forest has two games remaining against bubble teams. If North Carolina drops against Duke they can take the ACC tourney #1 seed and NCAA #1 seed in one big swoop. Wake Forest is the team that impresses me the most in the ACC so far. North Carolina will have to beat them in the ACC tournament to change my mind.

(2/25)Recovered nicely from their early season drumming @Illinois. Wake Forest is by far the most accomplished team to date in the ACC. Unfortunately all they can do is look up at North Carolina in the standings. People still believe North Carolina is better. Wake Forest will have to prove its case at the ACC tournament.

Duke (20-4, 10-4 RPI(Old) 6(4), 13-3 vs Top 100, R/N: 7-3, L10:6-4)
Good Wins: Michigan St., (N)Oklahoma, Georgia Tech, @Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Davidson
Bad Losses:@Virginia Tech
Projected Seed: 1
(3/1) Next game against a desparate Miami team. After that is the game that will decide the ACC crown. Unfortunately for Duke they have no stake in the crown. They are still in the hunt for a #1 seed if they win out.

(2/25)I would like to say that Duke is not in the same league as Wake Forest and North Carolina, but they beat both of them. Coach K. just knows how to win. I will reserve praise for Duke until they have a big scalp in their hands from a road or neutral game.

Big 12:
Oklahoma St. (20-4, 10-3, RPI(Old) 3(6), 11-4 vs Top 100, R/N:8-5, L10:7-3)
Good Wins: (N) Syracuse, @Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Arkansas Little-Rock
Bad Losses: @Nebraska (More like inexcusable)
Projected Seed: 2
(3/1) Up 6 with 4 minutes left and then up 5 with 3 minutes left against Kansas. Think Ok St. wants a do over? Still a top team, but no longer has the inside track on the #1 seed. This is two tough losses in the past week for this team. Interesting to see how they rebound.

(2/25)That loss at Nebraska is a killer. Either way the Big12 championship will be decided Sunday @Kansas. On pace for a #2 seed if they keep winning.

Kansas (21-4, 11-3, RPI(Old) 1(1), 17-4 vs Top 100, R/N: 6-3, L10: 7-3)
Good Wins: Nevada, Vermont, Pacific, Georgia Tech, @Kentucky, Texas, Oklahoma St.
Bad Losses: None
Projected Seed: 1
(3/1) Nice way to break out of a mini-slump. Unless Kansas goes on another slump, the #1 seed is now their's to lose. They have the #1 RPI by miles. The committee is not going to go against this number or the RPI will lose major credibility.

(2/25)Losers of 3 in a row and still #1 in the RPI. Wonder why? Look at the first 4 names in the good wins list. That was cannon fodder invited over for easy home victories. It turns out all 4 of them ended up with decent records. Remember the previous article on how strength of schedule is deceiving? Here is Exhibit A. Still feel like Kansas is of championship quailty after seeing the Top 50 list?

Oklahoma (22-6, 11-4, RPI(Old) 14(12), 10-6 vs Top 100, R/N: 8-5, L10: 6-4)
Good Wins: (N)Minnesota, UConn, Texas, Oklahoma St., Kansas, @Texas
Bad Losses: None
(3/1) First football and now Oklahoma is whooping on Texas in basketball as well. Nice road win, but that earlier win on the road against A&M may be better. That A&M win sure is looking better and better every day.

(2/25)Best road win was Texas A&M. This is an unproven team. Sorry Oklahoma fans. Win a decent road game and then get back to me with the complaints.

Texas Tech (17-8, 9-5, RPI(Old) 33(30), 8-8 vs Top 100, R/N 4-7, L10: 6-4)
Good Wins: @Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas , @UTEP
Bad Losses:
Projected Seed: 7
(3/1) Going the wrong direction the last couple of games. The resume is good enough to get them in even with a couple of more losses. Their seed continues to sink.

(2/25)Texas Tech is turning things around at the right time. That 4-6 Road/Neutral record is troubling however.

Big East
Boston College (23-3, 12-3, RPI(Old) 9(6), 10-3 vs Top 100, R/N 7-2, L10: 7-3)
Good Wins: @UCLA, Holy Cross, @UConn, Villanova, Syracuse, Kent St.
Bad Losses: None
Projected Seed: 3
(3/1)Boston College is falling back to the Big East pack. Now tied with UConn for the conference lead. Which is the true Boston College the one that started out 20-0 or the one that got crushed at home against Pittsburgh. Unfortunately for Boston College fans it is the latter.

(2/25)Boston College is making the Big East proud (or is it the ACC proud). Boston College has had the easiest of all the Big East schedules, but have taken care of business so far.

UConn (19-6, 11-3, RPI(Old) 20(13), 10-5 vs Top 100, R/N 7-3, L10: 8-2)
Good Wins: Buffalo, Villanova, @Syracuse, @Pittsburgh
Bad Losses: @UMass
Projected Seed: 4
(3/1) Who would have thought we would could be saying "UConn Big East regular season champions a couple of weeks ago" Very likely possibility at this point.

(2/25) Not the most accomplished of the Big East bunch, but they are the team on Boston College's tail.

Syracuse (23-5, 10-4, RPI(Old) 22(17), 9-5 vs Top 100, R/N 8-3, L10: 6-4)
Good Wins: (N) Mississippi St., @Villanova
Bad Losses: None
Projected Seed: 5
(3/1) Tough end of the season @UConn. Have an outside chance to share Big East title with victory in that game.

(2/25)That win at Villanova was impressive.

Pittsburgh (19-7, 9-6, RPI(Old) 45(28), 6-6 vs Top 100, R/N 6-3, L10: 6-4)
Good Wins: @UConn, Syracuse, @Syracuse, @Boston College
Bad Losses: @St. Johns
Projected Seed: 6
(3/1) Thrashing of Boston College just what Pittsburgh needed. Win at Notre Dame would get Pittsburgh to 10 conference wins and will keep them from getting confused with the bubble teams when the hand out seeds.

(2/25)Pittsburgh is your typical C student they are doing just enough to earn a passing grade into the tournament. Look at the RPI, .500 against the Top 100, Only 8 games away from home so far. Not the most impressive resume, but when you compare to the teams that are not in yet, it suddenly looks much better.

Villanova (19-6, 9-5, RPI 13(11), 9-6 vs Top 100, R/N 6-3 L10: 8-2)
Good Wins: Kansas, Boston College, Pittsburgh
Bad Losses: None
(3/1) No tough regular season games left. Should easily get the 11 conference wins.

(2/25)Boy picking tournament teams should be a required exercise for all college basketball fans. I thought Villanova would be a tough tournament out, until I realized that they do not have any quality wins away from home.

Big 10
Illinois (28-0, 14-0, RPI 2(2), 15-0 vs Top 100, R/N 14-0, L10: 10-0)
Good Wins: (N) Gonzaga, Wake Forest, (N) Cincinnati, @Wisconsin, Minnesota, @Michigan St., Wisconsin
Bad Losses: What Losses?
Project Seed: 1
(3/1) Haven't done anything since the last update. Well they haven't played a game, but they did win the Big 10 outright. Easy game Thursday against Purdue and then we can brace ourselves for the usual chatter about how Illinois is setup for a road loss. This time against Ohio St.

(2/25)Illinois has won more Road and Neutral games than almost every school has attempted.

Michigan St. (20-4, 11-2, RPI 16(14), 7-4 vs Top 100, R/N 7-3, L10: 9-1)
Good Wins: Stanford, UCLA, @Minnesota, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Bad Losses: None
Projected Seed: 4
(3/1) Well at least the Big 10 heads are happy about the loss to Indiana. The loss isn't as bad as you think. While Indiana tends to lose a lot, they don't lose at all at home in conference play.

(2/25)One of the hottest teams in the country now. It is no fun to be two games back in your conference when you have only lost two games. Clearly #2 in the Big Ten.

Wisconsin (18-7, 9-5, RPI 16(18), 8-6 vs Top 100, R/N 5-6, L10: 6-4)
Good Wins: Maryland, Alabama, Michigan St.
Bad Losses: @Pepperdine
Projected Seed: 6
(3/1) Nice road win against Ohio St. Need to win against Indiana tonight. Imagine having to fight for a high seed when Indiana finishes ahead of you in the Big 10.

(2/25)Clearly Wisconsin is a road dog. Badger fans save yourself the trouble and don’t worry about Sweet 16 tickets for this team.

Big West
Pacific (23-2, 16-0, RPI 21(24), 4-2 vs Top 100, R/N 11-1, L10: 10-0)
Good Wins: @Nevada , UTEP
Bad Losses:
(3/1) Perfect in conference should always get you in the tourney no matter what conference you come from. They have no concerns about getting in.

(2/25)Even without the change in RPI, Pacific’s is good enough for a bid. One has to wonder how with the lack of quality wins.

Conference USA
Louisville (24-4, 12-2, RPI 24(21), 8-3 vs Top 100, R/N 8-2, L10: 9-1)
Good Wins: (N) Stanford, @Florida, @Cincinnati, Cincinnati
Bad Losses: Memphis
Projected Seed: 3
(3/1) Two tough games to finish the season. If they win out they have a chance to reach a #2 seed.

(2/25)The cream of the crop in Conference USA.

Charlotte (21-4, 12-2, RPI 25(23), 9-2 vs Top 100, R/N 9-2, L10: 9-1)

Good Wins: Davidson, Cincinnati, DePaul
Bad Losses: Rutgers, @East Carolina
Projected Seed: 5
(3/1) Game against Louisville next to determine who is the best in Conference USA. The game is at Louisville so Charlotte will prove something with a victory against them.

(2/25)Not sure what to make of Charlotte. Those losses are terrible. Another team without quality wins away from home. The difference with Charlotte is that they actually win away from home.

Cincinnati (22-6, 10-4, RPI 17(15), 9-6 vs Top 100, R/N 7-4, L10: 7-3)
Good Wins: N. Iowa, (N) Miami (Ohio), DePaul, Charlotte
Bad Losses:
Projected Seed: 6
(3/1) Two cream puffs to finish out the regular season. Should be the 3 seed in the conference tourney.

(2/25)Cincinnati is one of the most overrated teams in the country.

DePaul (17-7, 9-4, RPI 34(29), 7-3 vs Top 100, R/N 4-6, L10: 7-3)
Good Wins: Old Dominion, Cincinnati
Bad Losses: N. Illinois, @Bradley, @Northwestern, @Memphis
Projected Seed: 9
(3/1)They just keep winning and winning late in the season.

(2/25)Another Conference USA team with horrible losses. Give DePaul credit for turning around their season after being left for dead after non-conference play. Like Pittsburgh DePaul is a C student. The difference is that Pittsburgh gets a C+ while DePaul gets a C--.

Missouri Valley Conference
Southern Illinois (24-6, 15-3, RPI 12(20), 8-5 vs Top 100, R/N 10-6, L10: 9-1)

Good Wins: N. Iowa , UTEP, Wichita St. @Kent St.
Bad Losses: @Hawaii
Projected Seed: 5
(3/1) Regular season champs. Should be a cake walk into the MVC finals.

(2/25)Is this the resume of the #12 team in the country?

Mountain West
Utah (23-4, 11-1, RPI 19(25), 3-4 vs Top 100, R/N 9-4, L10: 9-1)
Good Wins: LSU
Bad Losses:
Projected Seed: 6
(3/1) Will be bored until they face New Mexico in the conference finals. Joe Lundardi from ESPN has them at a 5. I have them as a 10 seed.

(2/25)Is this the resume of the 17th best team in the country? At least the Missouri Valley Conference is good.

Pac-10
Arizona (24-5, 14-3, RPI 8(9), 13-5 vs Top 100, R/N 9-4, L10: 8-2)
Good Wins: (N) Mississippi St., Utah, Washington, Stanford, @UCLA, @Marquette
Bad Losses:
Projected Seed: 3
(3/1) Glad to be out of the state of Washington. Almost take another Bad Loss at Washington St. The first one was bad it just didn't qualify to be listed above.

(2/25)One of the two best teams you won’t see on ESPN.

Washington (22-4, 12-3, RPI 8(9), 13-3 vs Top 100, R/N 8-4, L10: 8-2)
Good Wins: (N) Utah, (N) Oklahoma, (N) Alabama, Stanford, UCLA, Arizona
Bad Losses:
Projected Seed: 2
(3/1) Have the inside track for the highest tournament seed from the Pac-10. Have won some quality games away from home out of conference. I cannot believe this team is not in the discussion for a number 1 seed. Do I have them as a #1 seed. No, but I at least gave them some consideration.

(2/25)Has proven they can win at neutral sites. A more complete team than Arizona. Of course I can be proven wrong tomorrow. The other one of the best teams you won’t see on ESPN.

SEC
Kentucky (21-3, 12-1, RPI 11(10), 9-3 vs Top 100, R/N 8-2, L10: 9-1)
Good Wins: @Louisville, LSU, Florida, Mississippi St.
Bad Losses:
Projected Seed: 2
(3/1) This team has been hiding under the radar all season long. Just because the SEC is having a down year doesn't mean you should ignore this Kentucky team. Are proving to be more and more impressive as time goes on.

(2/25)Not the best team that Kentucky has fielded, but 3 losses at this juncture is not bad. This team has the potential to make it to the regional finals.

Alabama (21-5, 10-3, RPI 13(15), 8-5 vs Top 100, R/N 7-5, L10: 8-2)
Good Wins: @Charlotte, LSU, Mississippi St.
Bad Losses:
Projected Seed: 4
(3/1) Had statement game at home vs Kentucky. Unfortunately the statement was that Kentucky is still the best in the SEC.

(2/25)Other than Charlotte, Alabama is just not getting it done on the road. Perfect at home this season. The blow out at Florida is a good example of what happens when they venture outside of Alabama.

WCC
Gonzaga (23-4, 12-2, RPI 11(14), 6-4 vs Top 100, R/N 10-4, L10: 10-10)
Good Wins: Washington, @Oklahoma St., St. Mary’s, Georgia Tech
Bad Losses:
Projected Seed: 3
(3/1) Year after year the best of the WCC. Congrats to Gonzaga.

(2/25)Had done all a mid-major can do to build a quality resume. That win @Oklahoma St. shows that Gonzaga has the goods to beat just about any team. The problem is I don’t know if Gonzaga is deep enough to make a deep run in the tournament.

WAC
Nevada (22-5, 14-2, RPI 28(22), 4-4 vs Top 100, R/N 9-2, L10: 9-1)
Good Wins: Vermont, @UTEP
Bad Losses: @Fresno St.
Projected Seed: 7
(3/1) Two easy ones left and then on to the conference tourney.

(2/25)The win at home over Vermont guarantees an at large bid.

Thursday, February 24, 2005

Thursday's 2/24 Recap

Michigan St. (20-4, 11-2) 77 - Wisconsin (17-7, 8-5) 64
Listen to that silence around you. It is the critics off of Michigan St.'s back (well at least until they lose to another ranked team) Wisconsin fans I have some bad news for you. The NCAA tournament is not at the Kohl Center. 13-1 at home and 4-6 away from home. Not a good indicator for the Badgers.

Arizona (24-4, 14-2) 57 - Washington St. (10-14, 5-10) 56 OT
I guess Washington St. is one of those teams that Arizona just can't figure out. At least they come away with the win. By the time selection Sunday comes around everyone will have forgotten how close this was. Still on pace for a #2 seed. If they win out they have a shot at the #1 seed depending on how everything plays out. First things first. They have to beat the other Washington team. They will have to play much better than tonight to accomplish that.

Cincinnati (21-6, 9-4) 80 - Marquette (18-9, 6-8) 68
Too many teams ahead of Marquette now for them to capture an at large bid. This was their absolute last chance to get in the at-large conversation. Sub .500 records don't get bids in Conference USA. For Cincinnati they keep pace with the pack that is following the Conference USA leaders.

Oregon St. (15-11, 7-8) 84 - Stanford (15-10, 9-6) 83
Just when people start to believe Stanford is tournament quality material they go and do this. This loss isn't the end of the world, but their margin of error just got reduced to zero. A home win at Washington to end the season would do wonders for their resume.

UCLA (15-9, 9-7) 90 - USC (12-16, 4-12) 69
UCLA crushes its rival. Big road game at Notre Dame next. Win at Notre Dame + two winnable home games against the Oregon schools = Tournament bid.

Washington (22-4, 12-3) 90 - Arizona St. (18-10, 7-9) 82
Well played game. Washington is just the better team. For Arizona St. they should be kicking themselves, but this loss isn't the reason why. With Arizona St. dispatched, Washington can get ready for the monster matchup against Arizona. While many east of the Mississippi will overlook this game, over at the Madness blog we look forward to it. Remove the Pac-10 Showdown title from the game and replace it with ACC Showdown and this would be hyped beyond belief. Stupid move on the Pac-10's part on signing that contract with Fox.

St. Mary's (23-7, 10-3) 81 - San Francisco (14-12, 5-8) 77
Tied at halftime, tied at the end of regulation, tied after one overtime, tied again after 2 overtimes. Finally, St. Mary's pulls it out in triple overtime. St. Mary's couldn't afford a loss here. Kudous for pulling this one out.

Gonzaga (22-4, 12-2) 84 - Portland (15-14, 4-10) 68
Gonzaga gets a needed easy win and will stop the chatter about the closeness of some of the recent victories. Gonzaga continues to march towards a high seed. For those of you who don't believe in Gonzaga. Too bad. The committee is going to rank them high. The Zags will probably be around a 3 seed. Only time will tell if they are seeded correctly.

Who has the higher strength of schedule?

Team A

Northeastern
Winthrop
Cal State Fullerton
Davidson

Team B

Illinois
Arizona
Longwood
North Carolina

The answer:

Team A - The SOS component according to the RPI (based on today's records) is .016 greater for Team A which would indicate that Team B's schedule is not only worse, but a .016 difference between teams can knock the SOS ranking by a factor of 30 or greater depending on where in the rankings the .016 difference falls.

Not fair is it.

*Note: The SOS is 2/3 your opponent's records and 1/3 your opponent's opponent's records.

Strength of Schedule for the Championship Teams

There was a question raised about the margin of victory of championship teams verses the quality of competition they faced throughout the year. Here are the rankings based on how the RPI calculates the strength of schedule(SOS).

2004 UConn (11th)
2003 Syracuse (10th)
2002 Maryland (6th)
2001 Duke (4th)
2000 Michigan St. (11th)
1999 UConn (19th)

As you can see the schedules above weren't the easiest in the nation. Anything in the top 10 should be considered very tough. Anything in the top 25 should be considered a quality schedule as well.

How do the 3 teams in question stand as of 2/24?

North Carolina 24 (78 non-conference)
Boston College 29 (76 non-conference)
Illinois 47 (51 non-conference)

As you can see they have not played the toughest schedules in the nation so far. One interesting point though is that one or two games against a dog can bring down an otherwise quality schedule. Just ask Illinois and Wake Forest about what the game against Longwood did both to their SOS and their RPI score. Wake Forest won yesterday and dropped 4 spots in the RPI below Boston College who lost.

Of course all 3 team's SOS will improve once both the conference tournaments and NCAA tournament start.

At the end, Illinois and North Carolina will both be in the top 20 in SOS (assuming they make a deep run) and will have a high margin of victory (15+). Actually North Carolina will most likely hit the top 10. Boston College will be in the top 10 in SOS (assuming they win a few tournament games as well) and will have a low margin of victory in the 6 to 8 point range.

So here is more fuel to add to the debating fire. It doesn't change my initial analysis though. North Carolina and Illinois are the cream of the crop and Boston College is not in the same league as them.

Wednesday, February 23, 2005

Wednesday's (2/23) Recap

Here is the straight up analysis for all the relevant games today.

West Virginia (17-8, 7-7) 70 - Pittsburgh (18-6, 8-5) 66
Huge win for West Virginia. They are no longer on the outside looking in after this game. While they are by no means in, their future looks much brighter. With Rutgers and Seton Hall left they have no one to blame but themselves if they don't get a bid.

For Pittsburgh this is a tough loss. These are the games that have to be won when you are looking for a 4 seed or higher.

Wake Forest (23-4) 88 - Longwood (1-29) 47
Wake Forest wins big. Their reward? Their RPI will drop big.

Syracuse (23-5, 10-4) 83 - St. John's (9-15, 3-11) 69
Syracuse gets a needed win after dropping 4 of the last 6. They should win out and can still get as high as a 3 seed if they do.

Duke (20-4, 10-4) 60 - Georgia Tech (15-9, 6-7) 56
Duke puts another nail in Georgia Tech's coffin. While a sub .500 ACC team could make the tournament. Georgia Tech is not one of those teams. With the rest of their schedule they are going to have a tough time making the tournament. The game at Miami next is huge for them.

Akron (17-7, 10-5) 55 - Miami (Ohio) (17-7, 11-4) 49
Killer overtime loss for Miami. Their only path into the tournament now is by winning the conference tournament.

Illinois (28-0, 14-0) 84 - Northwestern (13-13, 5-8) 48
Say hello to your Big 10 champs. They now get a week off before they get a chance against Purdue to win it out right. Northwestern didn't cause Illinois to break a sweat in this one.

Charlotte (20-4, 11-2) 80 - Memphis (16-11, 9-4) 77
Charlotte blows a 10 point lead, blows a chance to raise that sub-100 RPI, and really hurts their tournament chances. Look at Charlotte, 20 wins vs 4 losses. They are one of the best teams you have not heard about. Charlotte is a team you don't want to see in a second round or sweet 16 game.

Xavier (14-10, 8-5) 81 - George Washington (17-6, 9-4) 62
George Washington welcome to the list of teams that needs to win their conference tournament to make the big dance.

Kentucky (21-3, 12-1) 81 - Auburn (12-14, 3-10) 73
Kentucky takes care of business and clings to the hope that the ACC top dogs will knock each other off and they can sneak in as the last #1 seed.

Minnesota (18-9, 8-6) 65 - Iowa (16-10, 4-9) 57
Can we finally quit the talk about Iowa having a chance at the tournament? While I am a Big 10 guy this talk is crazy! Minnesota is now in control of its own destiny. They have a road game at Purdue and at Penn St. If they win both they are in regardless of what they do in the Big 10 tourney. Hopefully Minnesota doesn't play like they did in that home loss to Northwestern.

Florida (17-7, 9-4) 69 - Vanderbilt (16-11, 6-7) 61
Florida is still in, Vandy is still out. Status Quo here.

Villanova (18-6, 8-6) 76 - Boston College (22-2, 11-2) 70
Well fate has finally caught up with Boston College. You can only get so many close wins in a row before you lose as I mentioned in a previous post. Boston College gets back to a #1 seed and then quickly loses it. It seems like nobody wants that 4th #1 seed. Villanova continues to prove that they are a team no one wants to face it the tournament. (Un)Fortunately they could be an early flame out due to their Jekyll and Hyde personality.

Why Boston College is never mentioned in the same breath as Illinois and North Carolina

You hear complaints from Boston College fans all the time on how they are disrespected and not given the credit deserved for a good season. It is a fair complaint. You don't see too many schools with 1 loss this late in the season from a major conference. There is a reason why Boston College does not get the same hype as North Carolina or Illinois. They are not as good as those schools. Let me explain.

There has been one indicator over the years that has been common among championship caliber teams. It is the average margin of victory. Lets take a look at some recent champion's margin of victory.

2004 UConn (+14.9, 3rd)
2003 Syracuse (+10.0, 17th)
2002 Maryland (+14.1, 5th)
2001 Duke (+20.2, 1st)
2000 Michigan St. (15.1, 5th)
1999 UConn (15.9, 4th)
1998 Kentucky (13.1, 10th)

While margin of victory alone does not determine the champion, it gives a good indication to who has the best chance to cut down the nets at the end of the season. Below is the margin of victory for Illinois, North Carolina and Boston College.

North Carolina (21.6, 1st)
Illinois (17.3, 4th)
Boston College (10.3, 33rd)

Breaking down the numbers further into double digit wins we find

Illinois 23
North Carolina 21
Boston College 10

Single Digit wins:

Boston College 12 (plus1 loss)
North Carolina 2 (plus 3 losses)
Illinois 4

The reason North Carolina and Illinois are so good is that they give opponents very few chances to win down the stretch. Therefore those teams games are less likely to turn on a bad ref calls or bad bounce in the final moments.

Conversely Boston College has had a lot of close games and won almost all of them. You have to give them credit for winning them, but history has shown that teams that have a lot of close victories won't win the tournament.

Why is that? There are two reasons for this.

  1. Good team win. Great teams win big. Especially in college sports.
  2. Teams that play a lot of close games wear down as the season goes on. That is why Illinois even though their starters have logged a lot of minutes will be fine come tournament time, because a lot of those minutes did not occur under high stress situations unlike Boston College.

Even though the average margin of victory for Boston College now stands at 10.3 it will be much lower by the time their season is over based on the quality of competition they will face the rest of the way.

To sum up, Boston College is a good basketball team. They are just not in the league of North Carolina and Illinois.

Tuesday, February 22, 2005

What is the deal with the Big 12?

The big 12 is getting interesting. Lets take a look at the top half of this disfunctional family.

  • Kansas one week ago has zero losses. Then drops three straight.
  • Oklahoma St. becomes top dog and then takes a terrible loss against Nebraska
  • Texas Tech drops 3 games behind Kansas twice and now is only one back
  • Oklahoma drops 3 in a row to fall 4 back in the race and now is one back
  • Iowa St. gets a huge win at Kansas and then gets blown out at Texas A&M
  • Texas gets the easy wins, but can't win against the big dogs in conference (other than Oklahoma St.)

With the sudden parity at the top of the Big 12, who has the inside track at the title.

You still have to like Oklahoma St and Kansas for the regular season title. The big show down is Sunday at Kansas. Even though Kansas is reeling you have to take them at home over Oklahoma St. I believe Simien is going to have a monster game and win by double digits.

Being an Illini Alum, I do take pleasure in Self's team self destructing right before the tournament begins, but they will right the ship. After Oklahoma St., Kansas has a couple of cream puffs in Kansas St. and @Missouri. Beware if Kansas does lose. Who knows where they will bottom out at that point?

If Kansas and Oklahoma St. both fall, you have Oklahoma and Texas Tech waiting in the wings with a season finale against one another. The winner of that matchup will have a chance for a 3-way tie for the conference crown. With the game being at Texas Tech coupled with the way Texas Tech is playing lately you have to think they will the showdown.

Final projected standings:

  1. Kansas (13-3)
  2. Oklahoma St.(12-4)
  3. Texas Tech (12-4)
  4. Oklahoma (11-5)
  5. Iowa St. (9-7)
  6. Texas (8-8)

Tuesday's Game Wrap Up

Miami (16-9, 7-7) 65 - Florida State (11-16, 3-10) 49
I was not a believer in Miami, but that is changing quick. A win Saturday against Georgia Tech or Duke next week should be enough for a good nights sleep before selection Sunday. Good road win for them today.

Texas Tech (17-7, 9-4) 69 - Texas (18-8, 7-6) 65
Who would have thought that a week ago that Texas Tech would have been in the title hunt. One game back with only a home game against Oklahoma the rest of the way to worry about. With the way Kansas is playing Texas Tech could be Big 12 champions.

Poor Texas, other than Oklahoma State, quality wins have been tough to come by in the Big 12 for them. While they are still in for now, they better beat Missouri next or they can set plans for a first round home game in the NIT.

Indiana (13-11, 8-5) 79 - Purdue (7-17, 3-10) 62
Indiana is still on life support. If they want to impress me they can beat Michigan State next. All those Indiana bashers have to keep in mind that the selection committee rewards teams with average records that play brutal non-conference schedules.

Gene Keady's misery continues. Not a way for a coach of his caliber to go.

Nebraska (12-12, 5-8) 74 - Oklahoma State (20-4, 10-3) 67
Does anyone want to win the Big 12 Title? Give Oklahoma State credit, they pulled off a feat that even Kansas or Texas couldn't pull off. They choked against Nebraska. They can kiss that #1 seed goodbye.

North Carolina (23-3, 11-2) 81 - North Carolina State (15-11, 5-8) 71
North Carolina still rolling. An ACC regular season title is very close now.

Clemson (13-3, 3-10) 97 - Maryland (16-9, 7-7) 93
Maryland is lucky they are in the ACC, otherwise they would be on the outside looking in. They better win one of their next two games or they are in trouble. If they drop the next two and the first in the conference tourney they are NIT bound. Even the ACC affiliation won't help them at that point. Knowing Maryland, they will beat North Carolina and lose at Virginia Tech.

LSU (16-8, 9-4) 61 - Alabama (21-5, 10-3) 59
LSU continues to play their way into the tournament. If they win out like they should, they will earn a decent seed. No shame in Alabama losing at LSU. One of the better games of the night. What an ending to this game. Neltner saves the day with a tip-in as time expires.

Texas A&M (17-7, 6-7) 75 - Iowa State (15-9, 7-6) 59
Iowa State loses as well? What is the deal with the Big 12. Iowa State finally gets in the good graces with the selection committee and then immediately lay an egg and get blown out by Texas A&M. Put Iowa State back on the bubble. With their schedule the rest of the way they should be fine, but they should have won this one or at least been competitive.