NCAA Basketball Madness

Championship Game Recap

2005-04-04T22:03:00.000-07:00

(1) North Carolina 75 - (1) Illinois 70
Well so much for the conventional wisdom that big games do not live up to the hype. It started out as a North Carolina blowout and almost ended as another great Illinois comeback. Funny thing happened along the way, Steve Bartman stole a Luther Head pass with about a minute remaining to curse the Illini. OK maybe not, but you have to feel for Chicago sports fans. They have glory within their reach, ready to celebrate another great comeback and win a national title (heck win any title) and then it all slips away.

Well, enough with that, what happened in the game?

First things first, refereeing. Illini fans want me to say the refs were terrible, North Carolina fans don't want to hear anything of the sort. I do not believe the refs caused the Illini loss, I do believe Augustine pissed somebody off to get the treatment he did by the refs. That was not a difference maker in the game though.

Here is a question for you? How do you know when your team is taking way too many 3's? When you have a 3 on 1, Dee Brown driving and all you get off is a crummy 3 point shot. That play symbolizes why the Illini lost. They could not, no would not go inside. They had plenty of opportunities and had good success in the 2nd half when they went inside, they just pulled up their drives way too often. The guards were too afraid of blocked shots.

North Carolina on the other hand had great success on the inside, but did not pound the middle in the second half for some reason. That allowed the Illini to catch up and almost win.

If I would have told you before the game the Illini would have 8 more offensive rebounds than the Tar Heels, would you have thought that North Carolina would win? If I told you that the Illini would only shoot 38% would you have believed that the Illini would even be close?

The difference maker was turnovers. This is why I thought Carolina would lose, but guess what the Tar Heels only turned the ball over 10 times. That is why Carolina won. The Illini had 2 big runs, the first was in the beginning of the game which was fueled by turnovers, the second was around the midway point in the second half which was fueled by turnovers (and great 3 shooting). There were not enough turnovers to sink Carolina.

Give Carolina credit, they took it to the Illini early and never let them get ahead. They made the shots when they needed to and had the defense at the end of the game to shut down the Illini.

Championship Preview

2005-04-04T13:03:00.000-07:00

How often in sports do you get the matchup that everyone expects and wants. (Well not everyone, but the majority anyways). This is it. This game has it all. #1 vs #2. An Illinois team that never won it all vs a coach who hasn't won it all. Conference bragging rights. The ACC and Big 10 are 2-2 in this tourney and the winner will give their conference the best overall tournament record. With that said onto the keys of the games.

Key 1: Foul Trouble. Louisville got Powell into foul trouble in the first half and he was ineffective. They could not duplicate that feat in the 2nd half and Powell took over the game. Powell almost always gets in foul trouble and North Carolina has to make it happen again. Illinois usually does not get teams into foul trouble, McCants would be the only candidate, but I don't see it happening.

Key 2: Defense. Illinois plays it, incredibly well. McCants does not. The rest of North Carolina defends OK. North Carolina needs a defensive effort like the second half of Michigan St. and not like the Wisconsin game. If North Carolina does not play defense like that second half of the Michigan St. game, Illinois is going to score a ton of points and most likely win easily, yes easily. If Roy Williams looked at the game tape from the Arizona Illinois games he will see that Illinois isn't nearly as good defensively if you get upcourt quick on offensive and move the ball around the perimeter. It wasn't so much that Arizona pounded the inside as much as they had Illinois off balance and then were able to stroll right into the lane for easy shots. That is why Arizona had success inside and Louisville did not. If North Carolina stops to set the offense and then tries to go inside, Roy Williams really is learning impared and probably never will get that championship.

Key 3: Rebounds. North Carolina has such a huge advantage here. All the Illini can do is to hope to limit North Carolina to as many 1 shot trips as possible. I know the Illini outrebounded Louisville. That was Louisville. This is North Carolina.

Key 4: Turnovers. Illinois usually does not turn the ball over, North Carolina has a lot of turnovers. A fast pace will probably not help North Carolina since Illinois is used to playing a quicker pace so North Carolina can not make up for all the turnovers with easy buckets, because there will be few easy buckets tonight. Illinois is lucky that their guards are quick, they make a lot of lazy passes that can be picked off (re: Arizona), most defenders never try though since they are afraid of being burned for an easy layup.

Key 5: Fatigue Since this is the last game, this should not be a problem, but Illinois has looked tired in this tournament and Carolina has shown no signs of fatigue.

Key 6: Pace Illinois has shown they can play and win every type of game tempo. Can North Carolina succeed in a slow paced half court game?

Prediction: Illinois. Why? because Illinois will control the tempo and turnovers will kill North Carolina.

Initial thoughts on the North Carolina/Michigan St game

2005-04-02T20:14:00.000-08:00

Will try to get full writeups later on.

looks like North Carolina spotted Michigan St. a half before playing
First Half: Michigan St. big on the offensive boards, too many North Carolina turnovers, Michigan St takes it to North Carolina on the inside
Second Half: North Carolina huge on the boards on both ends of the court, too many Michigan St turnovers, North Carolina just pounded the Spartans on the inside
Both halfs: Terrible shooting by Michigan St.
Nightmare scenerio for Big Ten fans, after going up 2-0 in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge II it is now 2-2 with North Carolina having a chance to sweep all 3 top Big 10 teams.
Michigan St. like Louisville should have had big leads at the end of the first half, I don't think a big lead by Michigan St. would have mattered the way North Carolina played in the 2nd half.

Initial thoughts from the Illinois/Louisville game

2005-04-02T17:33:00.000-08:00

Louisville blew their chance in the first half.
Garcia, yuck!
Powell, oh my gosh!
Weber outcoached Pitino and made the right 2nd half adjustments
The Illinois defense was great in the second half
Louisville helped Illinois with terrible shots around the 5-6 minute mark which just let Illinois further bleed the clock
Would Powell have had this great of game if he missed the 3 at the buzzer that put Illinois up by 1 early in the 2nd half?
Louisville owned the boards the first 35 minutes, Illinois cleaned the boards when it counted during the last 5 minutes.
Packer was well behaved during the first game. Still annoying, but well behaved.

Proving Maryland Eastern Shore (last in RPI) is the best team in the country

2005-04-02T10:01:00.000-08:00

Maryland Eastern Shore beat
MD Baltimore Country which beat
Maine who beat
Northeastern who had a nice win against
UMass who somehow beat
UConn who beat
Indiana who beat
Ohio St. who shocked
Illinios

Give the little guy with 2 wins a chance. Obviously they are an elite basketball school. Just a bored thought while waiting for the Final 4 to start.

North Carolina vs Michigan St. Preview

2005-04-01T21:42:00.000-08:00

(1) North Carolina vs (5) Michigan St.
This is going to be an interesting game. The big question of this game is "Will North Carolina be able to run over the Spartans or will the Spartans be able to slow down the game and dominate the boards like they have all season long?"

Key 1: Pace. As said above North Carolina likes to run. It is the reason they beat Wisconsin. They score so many easy buckets in transition, that teams have to play great just to hang with the Tar Heels. North Carolina had trouble scoring against the set defense of Wisconsin (no problems in transition though). Michigan St. is able the run, but they will not be able to keep up the entire game at a fast pace. As long as the spurts of Carolina are short and few this will not be an advantage. Michigan St. does not have a chance if this is the case.

Key 2: Rebounding. Michigan St. is a great rebounding team. They usually have the advantage on the boards. For the season, North Carolina has averaged 4 more rebounds than the Spartans. This is a must for Michigan St. If they get beat at the boards it will be a long night for Spartan fans. If will mean the Tar Heals will have the speed and the size plus extra possessions as a bonus.

Key 3: Defense. After the Wisconsin game I am not sure what to think of the Tar Heels. Lets look at the times Wisconsin scored over 80 points this season. Western Carolina 89, UNC Greensboro 85, North Carolina 82. Must be a Carolina thing. Not good company to be in. On offense N. Carolina has a + 10 PPG advantage while Michigan St. has a +6 PPG advantage over the Tar Heels. Michigan St. has a huge advantage here.

Key 4: Shooting. Michigan St. must shoot well. They are not as good of a shooting team as North Carolina. If Michigan St. has a good night they will win (50%+). Plain and simple. You only need to be on one night to eliminate someone. Michigan St. needs to at least shoot in the mid 40s to stay competitive. Anything under 40% and they are done. North Carolina has a greater margin of error than the Spartans in this area.

Key 5: Turnovers. Michigan St. takes care of the ball well, North Carolina can play a little too fast and loose. Michigan St. has a huge advantage here. North Carolina can not get careless when they push the ball up the court.

Key 6: Free throws: Michigan St. is great from the line. North Carolina is OK. Is North Carolina going to shoot like they did in the ACC tourney where they lost or like they did against Wisconsin when they sealed the deal?

Prediction: Michigan St. Defense and turnovers are going to be the difference. North Carolina is not going to be able to run and they will lose a close one down the stretch.

Margin of Victory Revisited

2005-03-29T23:35:00.000-08:00

A while ago I posted how margin of victory was a strong predictor of which teams will be cutting down the nets at the end of the season. How do the Final 4 teams stack up?

#1 North Carolina +18.2
#2 Louisville +17.3
#3 Illinois +16.5
#5 Michigan St. +14.0

Like I said margin of victory won't predict the winner, but the corrulation is very strong as to who has the best chance to be the last team standing at the end of the year. This year proves the case once again.

Case closed.

Illinois vs Louisville Preview

2005-03-29T21:17:00.000-08:00

(1) Illinois vs (4) Louisville
This is the early game on Saturday. Check back tomorrow for the North Carolina/Michigan St. preview.

Key 1: Louisville was successful against West Virginia because they were able to get easy buckets on transition. Illinois had problems with Arizona because they were not able to get set on defense and allowed easy buckets in the paint. With that said, Illinois should be able to stop the easy buckets on transition that fueled the Louisville comeback. Louisville must not let the Illini get set on defense. This is the key to breaking them down.

Key 2: Illinois had success with Arizona when they stepped up the pressure on defense, especially on the perimeter. This is something that Louisville may have trouble with. If Illinois can contain the speed of Louisville and contest the shots on the perimeter they will have a good night. Louisville must remember this formula, lazy pass = 2 points for Illinois.

Key 3: The key for Louisville is to get those points in the paint, unfortunately that is not their game. One has to wonder if the middle was open for Arizona because there was so much focus on Stoudamire or if the Illini truly are that vulnerable on the inside. Garcia better watch out, if Williams can handle Stoudamire, then he can easily handle Garcia. O'Bannon and Dean must step up big for Louisville again.

Key 4: Foul trouble. If Garcia fouls out against the Illini, Louisville is going home. Louisville has to take it to Powell, he has shown to be prone to foul trouble all year. They can also put Augustine in foul trouble, but the Illini showed that they can win without him. While Augustine was good in the first three rounds, he had a terrible game against Arizona.

Key 5: Injuries. Is Augustine and Head at 100%?

Key 6: Turnovers. Arizona exposed the Illini passing game by stepping into the passing lanes and picked off lots of passes for turnovers and easy baskets.

Prediction: Illinois (Not as high scoring as you would think, in the 70s only)
Louisville will not be able to expose Illinois on the inside. Williams will handle Garcia. Illinois has a defense suited for handling quick teams and guards. Louisville does not have the defense to stop Illinois. With two great offensive teams, defense will be the difference.

I love this game

2005-03-28T23:59:00.000-08:00

Conference Tournament Records

Sorry NBA, you don't deserve this tag-line. If you don't love NCAA basketball after this weekend you never will.

The following was the 4th best game of the weekend. If this is the 4th best game out of 4 games you know you are ready for something special:
Syracuse Regional
(1) N. Carolina 88 - (6)Wisconsin 82
I thought for sure N. Carolina would blow the Badgers out of the building. I figured they would wear down Wisconsin like they did Iowa St. Near the end of the 1st half it looked like I would be right, with North Carolina up 11. Wisconsin went on a 11-0 run to finish the second half. Wisconsin looked good early in the second half going up by 5. The killer was a 40 second sequence in which Wisconsin went from up 5 to down 3. North Carolina just had too many easy buckets the entire game, especially early. McCants sealed the deal down the stretch with a big 3 and a few huge blocks. Who would have thought that N. Carolina would score 88 points against Wisconsin and be in a dog fight.

The following was only the 3rd best game of the weekend. An overtime thriller and a 20-point comeback and only the 3rd best game of the weekend. As Dick Enberg would say Oh My!
Albuquerque Regional
(4)Syracuse 93 - (7)West Virginia 85
Went to visit my family this Easter. It was great to sit and watch basketball with my Dad again. When the half came and West Virginia was ahead by 13, we looked at each other and said Syracuse is going to win even though they had a huge lead. West Virginia had amazing 3 point shooting, 18 for 27. They had 18 3's. That is 56 points from the 3 ball. They had only 8 2 pointers. The problem with West Virginia was that they were slow on the transition defense. There were two occasions when Louisville looked like they were 1 against 3 on the transition, but they were able to outrun the other two defenders for an easy 1 on 1 basket. When the 3's stopped falling it was all over for West Virginia. My guess was that West Virginia tired out from the grueling schedule of the last 3 weeks. I thought West Virginia might pull it out when Garcia fouled out late when West Virginia still had a lead, but Louisville fought through it for a hard earned victory.

The second best game of the weekend. What a weekend. A double overtime game is only the second best game. I can't imagine ever getting another weekend of basketball like this again. It just can't happen.
Austin Regional
(5)Michigan St. 94 - (2)Kentucky 88 2OT
80% second half shooting by Michigan St. is only worth a double over time win, Amazing. Michigan St.'s offensive rebounds were the difference. With Kentucky ahead by 4 in the first overtime and starting to take the game over for good, Michigan St. had an amazing offensive possession where they got 6 or 7 shots on one possession before making a 3 pointer. After that, Michigan St. turned the momentum around and eventually won in double overtime. It was just a small sequence, but was indicative of what made the difference in the game. Not sure how Kentucky forced double overtime with the Michigan St. shooting in the second half, but nothing made sense this weekend.

And now for the granddaddy of them all. I nominate this as the best NCAA tournament game ever.

Chicago Regional
(1) Illinois 90 - (3) Arizona 89
I can't remember ever seeing a comeback of this nature against an opponent as good as Arizona is. Have you ever seen a comeback like this when there was so much on the line. This was one of those games that you will remember where you were when you saw it, especially if you were an Illini fan. Even if you weren't an Illini fan you have to appreciate the effort. I love a team that never gives up.

The entire game Arizona absolutely dominated Illinois inside. Dominated isn't the word, controlled, pushed around, owned, destroyed, obliterated, killed the Illini inside maybe a better term. Illinois controlled Stoudamire, but that was about all the Illini could do on defense. Somehow the Illini held with Arizona for 32 minutes until Arizona went up by 15. You know the rest. Illinois did not panic. When you go back and watch the game you will see that this was the most controlled last minute comeback you will ever see. Being #1 overall was a huge advantage for Illinois. People in Los Angeles thought they were going through another minor earthquake, but it was just feeling the affects all the way from Chicago from the stadium shaking and almost crumbling to its foundation. You could barely hear Jay and Dick annoucing and you could tell that they were yelling right into their mike.

The comeback was due to Illinois making almost all their shots down the stretch and 3 Arizona turnovers. When watching the reply I still was expected Arizona to win the game even though I knew the result. Just amazing. With Stoudamire not getting the ball at the end, Arizona did not know how to run the offensive, which led to the Illini pulling out the victory and a Final 4 appearance. Illinois almost blew a 6 point lead with around a minute to go, which would have been too cruel an irony and would have driven Chicago insane. After Steve Bartman and the Cubs this would have done the city in.

This game had everything except a 3 second game ending highlight for the future promos.

To sum up the day.

We have a team that can't get above 60-70 points giving the #2 team in the country a fit even though they scored 88 points.
18 3's and a 20 point lead is good for an overtime loss.
80% shooting in the second half is only good for a double overtime win.
A 15 point lead with 4 minutes remaining, 14 point lead with 3:30 remaining, a 8 point lead with around a minute remaining and the ability to score at will on the inside in good for an overtime loss.

What an amazing weekend. This was the best weekend College Basketball has ever seen.

2005 NCAA Tournament Conference Records

2005-03-28T23:52:00.000-08:00

Only tracking conferences that have 3 or more bids (tracking the records of a 2 bid or less conference does not accurately reflect the strength of a conference)

The results are current through all regional games. Only the final 4 teams are left.

ACC/Big 10 Challenge II
Big Ten 2
ACC 1

Conference	Record	Win %
Big 10	11-3	.786
ACC	10-4	.714
Conference USA	7-3	.700
Pac 10	5-4	.555
Big East	7-6	.538
Big 12	6-6	.500
SEC	4-5	.444
MVC	1-3	.250

Syracuse/Austin Regional Semi-Final Recap

2005-03-26T11:14:00.000-08:00

ACC/Big 10 Challenge II
(5) Michigan St. 78 - (1) Duke 68
(6) Wisconsin 65 - (10) NC State 56
Where did all that talk about the Big 10 having a down year go? How about the talk about the Big 10 leaders not being tested in the regular season?

So far Big Ten 2 ACC 0.

Big 10 fans don't get too excited, North Carolina can roll through and knock out the remaining Big 10 teams and make the score ACC 3 Big Ten 2, but enjoy the victories, the Big 10 deserves it after getting knocked all season.

(1) North Carolina 67- (5) Villanova 66
That travel call at the end of the game was the worst call in the NCAA tournament since Chris Weber called a timeout without any timeouts remaining. Ironic that both calls greatly benefit North Carolina. Couldn't tell if Ray travelled or not, what I do know is that if the same situation occurs in 100 more tournament games, it will never be called, nor should it have been called. Give North Carolina credit for making a nice comeback, probably would have won anyway, but the teams should have decided the outcome not the refs. Awful.

(2) Kentucky 62 - (6) Utah 52
Does this result surprise anyone? Let me give a simple math equation. Bogut + no help does not equal a deep tourney run. Kentucky continues to win ugly. 61% shooting for Kentucky, but only 62 points. No team has more ugly wins than Kentucky. Utah (I mean Bogut) had a nice run, but Bogut can only carry them so far.

Albuquerque Regional Semi-Final Review

2005-03-24T20:59:00.000-08:00

(4) Louisville 93 - (1) Washington 79
Louisville proved what we already knew, they are much better than a #4 seed. As retribution for their poor seeding they will have as easy an Elite-8 game as you can have against West Virginia (nothing against them, we love the play of West Virginia the past 3 weeks). Louisville was just too quick for Washington. Garcia just killed them. The foul trouble for Washington doomed any chance of a come back. Louisville just had an answer for every Washington run and was just the better team. Don't buy the garbage from the media that Washington wasn't a derserving #1 seed. Two #2 seeds didn't even make the Sweet-16, only 1 has a chance to make it farther than Washington, so don't single out Washington. Lets talk about Wake Forest if you want to talk about under acheivers or teams not getting the job done. At least Washington lost to a really good team instead of a tired team my Grandma could have outrun. Louisville will be the #2 favorite to make the Final Four behind North Carolina (if they win).

(7) West Virgina 65 - (6) Texas Tech 60
Even though it seems like I am disrespecting West Virginia, there is no team I have more respect for than West Virginia. What they have done is absolutely amazing. They went from a true bubble team to the Elite-8. They came back against Wake Forest even though they were exhausted and beat Texas Tech. Granted Texas Tech made some aweful decisions down the stretch, but West Virginia is just getting the job done. 3's were the difference here. 9 to 1 in West Virginia's favorite. Also West Virginia is playing like a team that wants to win. Texas Tech just didn't have the same passion, which is why West Virginia looked like the Elite-8 team and is the Elite-8 team.

Chicago Regional Semi-Final Recap

2005-03-24T20:52:00.000-08:00

(1) Illinois 77 - (12) UW-Milwaukee 63
Just another day at the office for Illinois. They still have not been tested in this tournament and probably have not played their best either. Although, today's performance was much better than their games last week. Dee Brown found his touch again and Williams had a terrific game. If the guard play is this good on Saturday the Illini will have the Allstate arena nets as a souvenier and a trip to St. Louis. Illinois's defense also stepped up as expected and kept UWM under 10 3's and the shooting percentage under 40%. While UWM made a few runs the game was never in doubt. A solid performance for the Illini.

(3) Arizona - (2) Oklahoma St.
Not sure why this game was even close. If you watched this game you would swear that the scorekeeper kept adding points for Oklahoma St. everytime you weren't paying attention. (63% shooting vs 43% shooting in Arizona's favor) +10 rebounding advantage for Arizona as well (+2 on the offensive glass. Oklahoma St. went to sleep midway in the 2nd half. Arizona got easy layup after easy layup. That stretch proved the difference. I still think I am going to wake up tomorrow and see that Arizona actually won by 15.

Chicago Regional Semi-Finals Preview

2005-03-24T10:14:00.000-08:00

(1) Illinois vs (12) UW-Milwaukee
Don't believe the hype, very few in Champaign care about UW-Milwaukee coach Bruce Pearl turning in Illinois for recruiting violations years ago. I don't think any of the current Illinois staff is still around from that.

This will come down to shooting and defense. UW-Milwaukee needed 12 3's in the first round and 11 in the second round to win their games. They have no inside game and need the long ball to beat the big guys. Illinois has shown throughout the entire season that they are prone to giving up 3's, the problem is that the Illinois defense is incredibly tough and opponents usually are not able to get points both on the inside and the perimeter. Don't expect UW-Milwaukee to get past the 60s in scoring.

The key for UW-Milwaukee is to slow down the Illini offense. They have to stop Dee Brown from getting easy baskets in transistion, but lately the rest of the Illini team has been running up the floor for easy baskets as well, so it is hard to determine where the attack will come from. Even though Illinois only showed up for a cameo appearance in Indianapolis, they should come out more motivated for the games in Chicago.

Prediction: Illinois (Probably a sloppy 10-15 minutes to start, and then Illinois takes charge)

(2) Oklahoma St. vs (3) Arizona
One of the 2 premier games of the night. Both teams love a quick pace. Both coaches are great. I have to give the edge to Arizona. Stoudamire will be the difference in this game. He can draw the defense to the perimeter while Frye is more than capable on the inside. If Stoudamire is on (like he always is) Arizona should win. Oklahoma St. is not able to slow down the pace enough to give Arizona fits. If Oklahoma St. can slow down Arizona they will have a good chance to win, but they are a quick team that like to play a quick pace.

Prediction: Arizona (Stoudamire hits a big 3 with just over a minute to go to ice it)
The pace favors Arizona.

Chicago Regional Recap (Day 2 Round 2)

2005-03-20T21:15:00.000-08:00

(2) Oklahoma St. 85 - (7) S. Illinois 77
If anyone wondered what advantage Illinois will have playing in Chicago, you got a good sense of it watching this game. This was not a neutral site game. This was a home game for Oklahoma St. Oklahoma St. was down early in the first half due to poor shooting and ball handling. When the second half started, Oklahoma St. found their defense and then just took it to S. Illinois. The only reason this game was close was that Oklahoma St. started to make lazy passes that S. Illinois jumped all over. S. Illinois somehow got within 2 late in the game after a couple of threes. Oklahoma St. responded with a 3 pointer to put the Salukis away for good.

Albuquerque Regional (Day 2 Round 2)

2005-03-20T21:08:00.000-08:00

(4) Louisville 76 - (5) Georgia Tech 54
Louisville came out swinging and took out Georgia Tech early. Georgia Tech is now 3-10 against tourney teams so this should not come as too big of a surprise to those who pay attention to college basketball. Louisville got knocked because people said that there record would not be as good if they played in the ACC. Maybe not, but it would be at least 1-0. The keys to the game were simple here. Shooting and rebounds. (53% - 37% shooting percentage and 33-16 advantage on the boards for Louisville as well) Louisville just played better, there really is not much more to say here. This game was a good ole fashioned whoopin'.

Austin Regional Recap (Day 2 Round 2)

2005-03-20T20:53:00.000-08:00

(1) Duke 63 - (9) Mississippi St. 55
I have to start this summary by saying Billy Packer makes Dick Vitale look unbaised (at least I like "Dookie" V). To any unbiased person this should be obvious why. Ok now onto the summary. Duke should be thanking God that Mississippi St. could not make any free throws or layups. Mississippi St. missed 19 layups and 10 free throws. Duke looks vunerable on the inside. Sure they had a few key blocks at the end of the game, but that was the exception. As I thought, Duke's depth is a problem. When Duke got in foul trouble Mississippi went on a run that almost (should have) gave them the victory. Give Duke credit for stepping up at then end with key blocks and shots when they needed them badly. As for the refs I thought the game was well called. (my wife disagrees) After this game Clark Kellogg does not look as crazy for picking Michigan St. to make it to the final 4. Seems like a better bet than Duke at this point. I'll have to ponder and I will give my prediction later in the week.

(5) Michigan St. 72 - (13) Vermont 61
Easy win for Michigan St. Vermont hung close through the first half when they were draining 3's, but once they stopped falling Michigan St. took over and cruised to an easy victory. The Michigan St. defense was tough. Vermont had trouble getting buckets inside and with the pressure on the outside, Vermont only shot 31%. Izzo saw the tapes from the Syracuse game and adjusted accordingly to avoid any chance of an upset.

Syracuse Regional Recap (Day 2 Round 2)

2005-03-20T11:19:00.000-08:00

(10) NC State 65 - (2) UConn 62
As predicted UConn was too big and the defense too much for NC State. Unfortnately for UConn the 3's were not falling. 10 3's for NCState vs 2 for UConn. You can blame the loss on a terrible non-call at the end of the game which resulted in a 3 pointer for NC State instead of the ball for UConn, but the real problem for UConn was the inability to hit the three, followed by their lack of intensity for the first 35 minutes of the game. UConn absolutely controlled the paint those last 5 minutes, well except for the layup and foul and the end of the game that gave NC State the lead and the game. So UConn fans don't blame the refs, blame your team.

(1) North Carolina 92 - (9) Iowa St. 65
North Carolina looks so good right now. They are firing on all cylinders. They just absolutely dominated Iowa St. on the inside. Not only were they good inside, they were good in transistion as well. North Carolina just ran and ran and ran until Iowa St. could not keep up anymore. After that North Carolina blew the game wide open. Even though Iowa St. was in striking distance for a while you never got the sense that they were ever in the game. North Carolina looks the best of any tournament team right now and this is written from the perspective of someone who does not like North Carolina very much. All I can say is wow.

(6) Wisconsin 71 - (14) Bucknell 62
Not sure why Wisconsin could not put the Bisons away. I thought that Wisconsin could have gone inside more since they did have success in the paint. Wisconsin played like they were not taking the game seriously at times. Whenever they got a lead they let their guard down, got lazy on offensive which allowed Bucknell to stick around. When the Badgers got serious, it was clear which team was the Sweet 16 team and which team was wearing glass slippers. Give Wilkenson credit (23 pts, 9 boards), he is the heart and soul of the Badgers and a big reason why they are moving on to the second week.

(5) Villanova - (4) Florida
Remind me again why I liked Florida in this game. They are constant underacheivers in the NCAA tournament. Villanova just spanked them, let the gators back in the game and just crushed them down the stretch. 19 turnovers and a -8 rebounding differential sealed the fate of the Gators. Villanova's defense has looked sharp the first two rounds and will have to be even sharper if the are going to slow down North Carolina in Syracuse. Should be an interesting game if Villanova's defense was as good as the first two rounds seems to indicate.

Austin Regional Recap (Day 1 Round 2)

2005-03-19T22:00:00.000-08:00

(6) Utah 67 - (3) Oklahoma 58
Utah just dominated Oklahoma. Let me give you an idea on how dominating Utah was. They had 13 more turnovers and still won by 9. Terrific defense and shooting by Utah was the difference. Oklahoma only shot 31% while Utah shot 59%. The rest of the Utah team stepped up big time today. Bogut (11 pts, 10 boards) was 4th in scoring on his team. Utah is going to need the entire team to step up like today if they are going to make it any farther. Besides the turnovers the lack of bench scoring should concern Utes fans.

(2) Kentucky 69 - (7) Cincinnati 60
This was a terrific game until Cincinnati could not make a basket to save their lives. Let me recap the Cincinnati offensive possesions at the end of the game for you in case you misssed it.

klank, rebound, klank, turnover, klank rebound, made FT, klank, klank, klank, airball, klank, rebound, klank, klank, rebound, klank, rebound, klank, blocked, klank.

In case you were not counting:
12 missed shots (1 missed FT, 1 airball, 1 blocked)
1 make FT
6 offensive rebounds
1 turnover

Yikes! No wonder they lost.

Albuquerque Regional Recap (Day 1 Round 2)

2005-03-19T21:32:00.000-08:00

(1) Washington 97 - (9) Pacific 79
Where are all those Washington doubters? They are getting quieter and quieter. Washington just ran all over poor Pacific. Another good shooting night for Washington (56%), 5 players in double digits. Pacific played as good as they could have played and still came up short by 18. As long as Washington plays good defense and an up tempo game they will continue to move on. 97 points in regulation, Wow!

(6) Texas Tech 71 - (3) Gonzaga 69
Gonzaga absolutely controlled the paint and the boards the entire game. The had a double digit lead in the second half. Texas Tech looked better in the paint the second half, but still could not match up well with Gonzaga inside. It all came down to Texas Tech making the shots when it counted and Gonzaga did not. Gonzaga needs more than Morrison. He should not be shooting 6 threes. He definately should not be taking them at the end of the game, problem is Gonzaga has no one else to step up. After the last 3 years I don't want to hear that Gonzaga is not getting respect. As Gonzaga has shown, if you win you get respect. They just haven't got it done the last 3 years. Very big win for Texas Tech and Bobby Knight, say what you will about Knight, but he has turned Tech around into a prime time program.

(7) West Virginia 111 - (2) Wake Forest 105 2OT
A huge win for West Virginia and the Big East. West Virginia fans do not take the next thought as a slam on your school. It isn't. West Virginia played terrific, overcame almost impossible odds and somehow gutted out a terrific victory.

Wake Forest, pathetic. West Virginia looked tired and played tired the entire first half. Wake ran WV up and down the court the entire first half with great success. Then the second half came and I don't know what happened. Didn't push the ball up the court, which kept West Virginia in the game. Somehow they found the strength to gut out a victory. It was amazing, Wake could not make a 3 all game and then drains 5 or 6 3's at the end of regulation and in overtime.

When stats lie: 76% free throw shooting for WV. Not bad, except WV missed almost all the big free throws at the end of regulation and the first overtime which would have put the game away.

As I mentioned before the tournament, the Wake play without C. Paul should send shivers up the spines of Wake fans. When he fouled out, it was all over. I love this West Virginia team, there is no team in the country playing harder than them right now. You have to love and respect that. All non-ACC fans should thank West Virginia because it will spare all the talk of the ACC being undefeated. I will keep the conference standings through the rest of the tournament on this page. I guarantee you will not see them on CBS or ESPN the rest of the tourney, unless all the ACC teams win tomorrow.

Chicago Regional Recap (Day 1 Round 2)

2005-03-19T18:36:00.000-08:00

(1) Illinois 71 - (9) Nevada 59
Illinois looked like the old Illini again after Nevada got within 2 late in the first half. Great defense for Illinois today, couple that with 19 assists and only 36% field goal shooting from Nevada and you have an easy Illinois victory. They even out-rebounded a good rebounding Nevada team. The game was not as close as the score indicates. James Augustine (23 points and 10 rebounds) was the man of the game today. Ingram and Augustine had half the points for the Illini today (35 points). It's amazing how many ways the Illini can beat you. Who would have thought that the Illini could look so good with Dee Brown (2 points) not looking so good. The only negative that Illini fans can take away from this game is that Brown has not been playing well the past 4-5 games. He will have to step his game up next week for Illinois to continue advancing.

(12) UW-Milwaukee 83 - (4) Boston College 75
Well I said that UW-Milwaukee had to drain a bunch of 3's to have a chance to win, and they drained 11 more 3's (45% 3-point shooting). The 22 turnovers doomed Boston College, especially #22 late in the game that let UW-Milwaukee control the game for good. 90% shooting from the line made sure that Boston College could not foul their way back into the game late. Give UWM credit, they played another great game. They don't look fancy winning, but they get the job done. Another painful loss for the Big East.

(3) Arizona 85- (11) UAB 63
This was the UAB that everyone expected to see. Arizona was just way too much. Stoudamire was awesome again (28 points). Arizona was too fast, too big and too good defensively for UAB. As I predicted one of the biggest mismatches of the day. It was as expected, a great team vs a mediocre team with the expected result.

No updates tonight

2005-03-18T22:48:00.000-08:00

Sorry, feeling horrible.

All I have to say is good riddance to Kansas.

Albuquerque Regional Recap (Round 1 Day 1)

2005-03-17T19:54:00.000-08:00

(8) Pacific 79 - (9) Pittsburgh 71
Bracketology 101. Teams not playing good leading up to the tourney do not live long in the tourney. Pittsburgh was not playing good leading into the tourney and guess what, they're gone. Give Pacific credit they were in control the entire game. Pittsburgh cut it down to 5 late, but never really threatened after that. Nothing special, good first half shooting by Pacific, good defense and poor shooting by Pittsburgh were the difference.

(1) Washington 88 - (16) Montana 77
The game was not as close as the score indicates. Washington was in control early and coasted the rest of the way. 55% + shooting for Washington today. The reason it got close is that Washington got lazy on defense, but they were never threatened.

(2) Wake Forest 70 - (15) UT-Chatanooga 54
The game was closer than it looks for about 28 minutes. There was a sequence when Chatanooga blocked a shot and then Wake Forest gets the rebound and put back the shot. That was the turning point. Wake Forest went up by 4 and never looked back.

(3) Gonzaga 74 - (14) Winthrop 64
Gonzaga almost gets Gonzaga'd (whatever that means) by Winthrop. Two straight 3's when the game was tied at 60 doomed Winthrop.

(7) W Virginia 63 - (10) Creighton 61
Creighton misses a 3 with about 8 seconds left in the game and forgets to get back on defense. W. Virginia scores an open layup with 2 seconds left. Inexcusable. Sad that your entire season ends because you forgot to get back on defense. W. Virginia looked a step slower than they did in the Big East tourney. Give Creighton credit, they took it to W. Virginia the entire game and probably should have won until they went cold at the end. Only 8 points in the last 7 minutes for Creighton. Almost pulled it out with 2 straight 3's with about 2 minutes left, but West Virginia was just too good.

(6) Texas Tech 78 - (11) UCLA 66
While the score was close the entire way you felt that UCLA was never really in the game. Everytime Texas Tech started to roll, and I went to turn to another game, it seemed like UCLA got a 3 to keep them within shouting distance. It was lights out shooting for Texas Tech (just under 60%). I'm not sure how this was only a 12 point victory. The game was not close at all.

Chicago Regional Recap (Round 1 Day 1)

2005-03-17T19:32:00.000-08:00

(12) Wisconsin Milwaukee 83 - (5) Alabama
Alabama did not look like the team that was a formidable foe all year long. They looked lost out on the court. 58% 3 point shooting from UW-Mil. Insane shooting. McCants and Tucker were just too much for Alabama to defend. Surprise, surprise, another 12 seed moves on once again.

(4) Boston College 85 - (13) Penn 65
Boston College clearly looked the best of all the top teams in the early games. They were in control the entire game. Boston College was too quick, too deep and too good for Penn. Even though Penn is not the best that the Ivy league has offered up in a while, Boston College deserves credit for a terrific performance.

(9) Nevada 61 - (8) Texas 57
One of the best games of the night. Texas missed 5 of their last 6 shots over the last 3 minutes to doom them. Texas was also letting Nevada get great offensive penetration for short jump shots over the same period. Texas proved that teams that are not playing good leading into the tourney have short stays. Very disappointing ending for Texas's season after a great start. Give Nevada credit. 2 straight visits to the second round. They now have a chance to beat a struggling Illini team for 2 straight Sweet 16 visits. Are they the new Gonzaga?

(3) Arizona 66 - (14) Utah St. 53
As widely expected the Utah St. defense and deliberate pace give Arizona fits. A big second half by Frye doomed Utah St. Arizona is a dangerous team with all their weapons. Utah St found out just how many weapons Arizona has. Frye, Stoudamire, Adams and Rodgers all had big games. Expect Arizona to be playing next week.

(1) Illinois 67 - (16) Fairleigh-Dickinson 55
Admit it Illini fans, you were scared to death (I know I was). You know how I know, the most popular page was the Fairleigh-Dickinson team page. I guess people were trying to figure out who those guys were (it wasn't curious people from around the country, most hits were from the Champaign area). Honestly I have no clue who they are. Here is what I do know, 27% 3-point shooting won't get it done. If you can't shoot from the outside, can't get the ball to the inside and let your opponent control the middle (like Fairleigh did in the 1st half) you will lose. This is the absolute last time Illinois can play like this and still win. Augustine was the man on the boards (15 reb), he needs to play better interior defense against Nevada to make it to the Sweet 16.

(11) UAB 82 - (6) LSU 68
LSU just got destroyed. This was just a good ole fashioned whoopin'. UAB didn't do anything special, LSU just self-destructed. Lets look at LSU's stats. 34% field goal shooting. 18% from beyond the arc (6-32, WOW!). 6 assists vs 15 turnovers. No more analysis needed.

Austin Regional Recap (Round 1 Day 1)

2005-03-17T19:03:00.000-08:00

(2) Kentucky 72 - (15) E. Kentucky 64
This game was much closer than it should have been. E. Kentucky wanted a piece of Kentucky and they played like it. The difference in the game was that Kentucky was too big and too physical for E. Kentucky. While E. Kentucky kept it close they never got to the point where it looked like they could win.

(3) Oklahoma 84 - (14) Niagara 67
Typical high seed/low seed game. The low seed can hang for just over a half and just wears down by the end of the game. This was just a 1 point game at the first intermission of the second half and then Oklahoma just blew the game open as expected. Credit the athleticism and defense of Oklahoma for blowing the game open.

(7) Cincinnati 76 - (10) Iowa 64
Who was that crazy analyst that said Cincinnati was overrated? This was not the same Bearcat team that we have seen all year. This team was physical, played good defense and destroyed Iowa in the middle. If Cincinnati keeps playing like this they can make a deep run. One thing to keep in mind though is that this was Iowa they beat up on.

(6) Utah 60 - (11) UTEP 54
A nice victory by Utah. Not sure if it was a good idea to play Bogut for 40 minutes. He did not look good in the 2nd half. He looked winded and tired. It will be interesting to see how he plays against Oklahoma. Jackson's shot with about 40 seconds left in the game put Utah up for good.

Final thoughts while you pass the time until the tourney starts

2005-03-16T21:34:00.000-08:00

Wouldn't it be ironic if:

Louisville makes it to the National Championship game and loses by missing its free throws with no time left on the clock.
Boston College makes it farther in the tourney that North Carolina and Illinois
The Big 10 and SEC are the only teams left in the final 4 after being laughed at all year for having down conferences.
UAB, N. Iowa and Iowa all win their first round games.
All the 5 seeds win their first game
and then a 1,2,3,4,6,7, and 8 seed all get upset
the Illini's bus breaks down and they end up having the roughest trip after all the talk of their easy travel plans.
NC State and Georgia Tech outlast N. Carolina, Wake Forest and Duke
Billy Packer has to announce a final four without any ACC teams
Duke loses due to a bad referee call

Final thought from my 6 year old daughter,

"Daddy, you keep talking about these basketball teams dancing, when are they going to dance already"

My thoughts exactly. It's finally time.

All brackets available

2005-03-16T00:12:00.000-08:00

All team pages and all game previews are now up. I believe the first round will go similar to last year. Very few upsets in the first round. The second round is where all the fireworks will start.

Team pages are available by clicking on each team on the right. Previews of the games are available by clicking on the preview link next to each set of teams.

Syracuse Bracket Available

2005-03-15T15:42:00.000-08:00

As before, you can click on the team to see which tourney teams they have played as well as some other interesting stats and analysis. You can click on the preview link to see analysis and predictions of each game.

Albuquerque Tournament Bracket Available

2005-03-14T17:44:00.000-08:00

You must check out the teams pages for Georgia Tech and UCLA. Their record against the field is quite interesting.

As always each team on the right side has its own team tournament resume with some interesting stats and information as well as each game has a preview with some interesting analysis and my predictions for those who care.

I highly recommend looking at all the team pages before filling out your brackets, you will be shocked at what you find with some teams. The record and games against the tournament teams is the most interesting part.

Dick Vitale is crazy

2005-03-14T01:26:00.000-08:00

Dick Vitale's ACC bias continues. His final 4 contains 3 ACC teams (N. Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest) along with Illinois. Give me a break. It is a good thing Georgia Tech didn't end up in the Chicago bracket or he would have predicted an all ACC final 4.

Chicago Regional information available

2005-03-14T01:22:00.000-08:00

If you look on the right pane you will see that the Chicago regional team pages are now available. If you click on a team you can see how they have fared against the rest of the tourney teams as well as the good and bad of each team with other useful information that you will need to prepare your brackets.

Also, you will notice that each game has a preview button where you can read information about each game and well as get my predictions. The other regions will be available later. Please check back.

64 out of 65

2005-03-13T15:45:00.000-08:00

Note: Check back later for a comprehensive profile of each team as well as a break down of each first round match.

Not bad at all, at first blush it looks better than most experts. I will look at how the "experts" faired shortly.

Missed N. Iowa picked DePaul instead.

Update:

Tony Mejia (CBS) 65 of 65
D. Madurzak (NCAA Madness) 64 of 65
Joe Lunardi (ESPN) 64 of 65
Yoni Cohen (Yoco Hoops/Fox Sports) 64 of 65
Bracketology 101 63 of 65
Dick Vitale 63 of 65

The only reason Dick is on ESPN complaining about his 2 teams not getting in not that they deserve it. (Notre Dame and Miami (OH)) They don't. The last few bubble teams don't deserve it either. It's that he got more choices wrong than any of the other experts.

Final Tournament Predictions and Awards

2005-03-12T22:43:00.000-08:00

Here are my final picks. I don't think that there is anything that can happen Sunday that will change this. Saturday night was a terrible night for bubble teams. Two major upsets have put two teams in that would never have gotten in. (Utah St., New Mexico[had a slim chance]) What is worse is that the teams they were playing were already in (Pacific, Utah) and were not already accounted for in the at large pool.

Looking at the picks we see the Big 10 back with 5 teams again. Who would have thought this 2 weeks ago. They were hoping for 4 and now have a solid 5.

Big 12 (6) - Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Texas Tech, Iowa St., Texas
Big East (6) - Boston College, UConn, Syracuse, Villanova, Pitt, W. Virginia
Big 10 (5) - Illinois, Michigan St., Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa
SEC (5) - Kentucky, Florida, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi St.
Conference USA (5) - Louisville, Cincinnati, Charlotte, UAB, DePaul
ACC (5) - N.Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke, Georgia Tech, NC St.
Pac 10 (4) - Arizona, Stanford, UCLA, Washington
Mountain West (2) - Utah, New Mexico
MVC (2) - S. Illinois, Creighton
WAC (2) - Nevada, UTEP
WCC (2) - Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Big West (2) - Pacific, Utah St.

Last 4 In - St. Mary's, UAB, UTEP, DePaul
First 4 Out - Wichita St., Notre Dame, N. Iowa, Buffalo
Next 4 Out - Indiana, Memphis, Georgetown, Maryland

The Pheonix Award (Awarded to the team that arises from the ashes into a new NCAA post-season life)
Iowa

The Overhyped Award (Awarded to the team that gets the most talk for an at large bid, but doesn't deserve it, also known as the Cincinnati Bearcat award)
Memphis (As I told you for 3 weeks now. They are not a tournament team)

The "Dookie-V" Award (Awarded to the analyst that created the most biased tourney prediction)
Interestingly enough it is Dick Vitale - Bracket (The ACC with 7, after Maryland and Miami loses in the 1st round, come on)

Note: The bracket has changed but the award and point remains. The first bracket was just awfully biased. Dick Vitale and objectivity just don't mix.

The Elvis Award (Awarded to the team that broke the hearts of bubble teams)
Tie (New Mexico and Utah St.)

The Finger Award (Awarded to the team that gave the committee the middle finger and played their way into an automatic bid after getting snubbed the year before)
Utah St.

Alien vs Preditor Award (Awarded to the game or moment that was absolutely painful to watch)
Darius Washington missing 2 of 3 free throws with no time left on the clock sending Memphis to the NIT. As unworthy as Memphis is, this was just gut wrenching. I feel terrible for the kid. He will have nightmares the rest of his life over this.

Best Overall Tournament Performance
West Virginia (They didn't win the Big East tourney, but they accomplished more than any team this week.

Do we really need 65 teams?

2005-03-10T23:42:00.000-08:00

Time to go back to 64. There are not 65 worthy teams. There isn't even 64 worthy teams. If I hear one complaint from a team saying they deserve to be in that doesn't make the NCAA Tournament I will scream. They will be lying. Whoever is left out at this point should be left out. There are no teams playing their way in that are not already in.

Here is today's summary.

In
W Virginia, Stanford

Should be OK
Iowa St., Minnesota (Didn't play but look good by comparison), DePaul, UCLA, Texas

Hang'in On
NC State, Iowa, UAB, Miami (OH), Memphis (Still not a tourney team)

Big Trouble
Maryland

Out
Georgetown, Arizona St., Vanderbilt

Sickening

2005-03-09T20:44:00.000-08:00

Another Team sold out by their conference.

Oakland (12-18) is in and the #1 seed Oral Roberts(25-7) is out.

What a sham.

Stop trying to convince me that these tournaments are worth it.
Stop trying to tell me that the upset potential makes it exciting.
Stop trying to tell me that the best team wins the tournament.
Stop trying to tell me you care.
Stop trying to tell me you watch.
Stop trying to tell me the conference needs the money.
Stop trying to tell me the conference needs the ESPN exposure.
Stop trying to tell me every team deserves a chance.
Stop trying to tell me that they knew the rules going in.
Stop trying to tell me that these sub .500 teams belong.
And definately don't tell me that Oakland earned its spot.

THEY DON'T!!!!!!!!!! Oral Roberts proved they are the best. They had one tough game and lost it all. It is much harder to win the regular season than the conference tourney. Why do these conferences even have a conference tourney. Better yet why do these conferences have a season. It is obviously pointless if Oakland gets in.

Sickening.

What do the Notre Dame football and basketball team have in common?

2005-03-09T20:23:00.000-08:00

Here is the wrapup of the games that matter.

Rutgers 72 - Notre Dame 65
It seems like both of the Notre Dame's main sports teams will be playing meaningless post season games. Notre Dame was practically a lock a couple of weeks ago. The Big East was never going to get 8 teams. Notre Dame gave the committee a reason why now. The question you have to ask yourself is when will a Notre Dame Men's football and basketball team actually play in a post season game that matters.

Georgetown 56 - Seton Hall 51
The Georgetown win was big for them. The Notre Dame loss was even bigger for them. Georgetown still needs another win, at least, to get in. At least Georgetown won't have to worry about Notre Dame taking their spot.

W. Virgina 82 - Providence 59
W. Virginia is in. There is no doubt.

DePaul 81 - Tulane 71
DePaul is in also. Currently they are in better position that the 3 Big East teams.

Memphis 79 - St. Louis 59
Memphis is still not a tourney team. They have to win the Conference USA tourney to get in. That is their only way in. A run to the finals is still not enough.

Montana 63 - Weber St. 61
Fair Dickinson 58 - Wagner 52
Montana gets the bid from the Big Sky. Fair Dickinson get the Northeast Conference bid. Your favorite writter wonders why 2 teams with losing records gets to play for a tourney bid. What a sham!!!!!!!!! At least they lost.

Its safe to turn on the TV Illini fans. You're still #1. Who else is?

2005-03-08T09:55:00.000-08:00

By the way Illinois fans, you can now watch ESPN again. The talk of the Illinois upset has gone away for the most part. What a blood bath Sunday was! With all the carnage, it shook out who the definiate #1 seeds are. The problem is with that last #1 seed.

#1 overall
Illinois

One loss doesn't change this. The only thing that changes this is if North Carolina wins the ACC tourney and Illinois does not win the Big Ten tourney. Think that isn't fair. Maybe not, but that is what will happen.

#1 (2nd overall)
North Carolina

They finally beat one of the other top 3 teams in the ACC.

#1 (3rd overall)
Wake Forest

They will flip with North Carolina if they beat them in the ACC tourney. After Sunday this is an obvious place for Wake Forest. I don't see anyway they move to #1 overall unless Illinois and North Carolina lay stink bombs in their respective tourneys and even then it is a long shot.

#1 (4th overall)
This is a mess. There are still 9 teams with a chance at the #1. Some are very remote. I have listed them in the order of the likelyhood it will occur as well as what must occur for each team to get the #1 seed. If the first team in the list does not take care of business then the second team will have the inside track if they take care of business. If the first and second team do not take care of business then the third team will have the inside track and so on and so on.

Kansas - if they win the Big 12 tourney. (#1 RPI, we will see how much this stat matters)
Kentucky - if they win the SEC tourney (I wouldn't be surprised if they moved ahead of Kansas if they both won out)
Oklahoma St. - if they win the Big 12 tourney.
Arizona - if they win the Pac 10 tourney (They are not at the top of the list because I am giveing them some West Coast bias along with the elite media's East Coast bias. Well that and the fact that they have a shakier resume than the teams above them)
UConn - if they win the Big East tourney
BC - if they win the Big East tourney (The pundits will claim that BC was not dissed all season long if this happens. Of course they will forget to mention that they were choice 6. Even if all the teams above them lose it still is a long shot)
Louisville - if they win the Conference USA tourney (Very long shot.)
Duke - if the win the ACC tourney (I can't imagine that the committee would give the ACC 3 top seeds.)
Washington (The committee will be real desparate at this point)

If they all lose, I don't have a clue what will happen, but I suppose that Kentucky would get it by default.

Proposed change to all conference tourney's

2005-03-06T19:28:00.000-08:00

So far 2 of 4 #1 seeds of conferences did not win its tournament. I think this is totally unfair. Unfortunately money is the driving factor for these tourneys and crying, whinning, complaining, moaning and pitching a fit will never change this.

So I have a proposal that will change this. The top 2 seeds of each conference should get an automatic bye to the semi-finals. For the low and mid-major conferences this rewards a great season. For the major conferences it lets the top teams win the tourney without having to play 3 games in 3 days.

This is the most fair option. This rewards the top teams for winning. If you think that this is not fair to the other teams. Guess what I think, TOO BAD. It should be tougher for the teams without a quality regular season to get the automatic bid.

I don't care if a conference has 8 teams and this will throw a monkey wrench in creating a bracket. Figure it out. You have all ready sold out your conference champion the least you can do is take a little extra time to reward them for the effort.

Game Recap (3/5)

2005-03-05T21:23:00.000-08:00

Too many games to write them all up

Taking care of business
Louisville, Villanova, Alabama, Vermont, Wisconsin, Utah, LSU, Cincinnati, UConn, Nevada, Oklahoma, Boston College, Michigan St., Pacfic

Won and now in
These teams deserve a write up, but it is obvious that they have finally done enough.
Pittsburgh over Notre Dame
Stanford over Washington
UCLA over Oregon
Texas over Oklahoma St. (most bizarre ending to a game this year)

Lost but still OK
Mississippi St., Washington, Syracuse, Texas Tech (terrible beating they took today), Charlotte, Oklahoma St.

Still Sweating It
DePaul losing to W. Virginia
Still has a solid profile, but they need another win to be sure.

W. Virginia losing to Seton Hall
This is an absolute killer loss for West Virginia. They are squarely on the bubble now. The Big East went from 8 teams to maybe 6 or as little as 5. A first round loss will sweep them into the NIT.

Notre Dame losing to Pittsburgh
Notre Dame is now squarely on the bubble as well. Of the 3 Big East bubble teams they are in the best shape.

Maryland losing to Virgina Tech
Maryland is a very overrated team. I think they may be on the outside looking in at this point. At least they should be. Unfortunately they are probably one of the last teams in. A first round loss in the ACC tourney will send them to the NIT.

Almost There
Iowa St. beats Colorado
Should be enough. They have a better resume than the Big East and ACC bubble teams. Is the late season winning streak what the committee will be thinking about or will the early swoon and almost late collapse be on the committee's mind?

Georgia Tech over Clemson
One of the few bubble teams able to beat Clemson as of late.

Wichita St. over Drake
The win is nice, but N. Iowa's loss was nicer for Wichita St.

Staying Alive
Virginia Tech beats Maryland
Is 15-12 good enough. One of 5 ACC teams that needs a nice tourney run.

Texas A&M beats Baylor
I really like Texas A&M. A high profile upset in the Big 12 tourney might be enough depending on what goes down in the other tourneys. This team is closer to being in than most people realize.

Indiana beats Northwestern
The RPI is too low. If they make it to the Big Ten semi's the RPI might jump up enough to warrent consideration.

On Life Support
N. Iowa loses to SW Missouri St.
The MVC will not get 3 teams. N. Iowa still has a very remote chance if the new RPI is used, which means that they are NIT bound.

Georgetown loses to Providence
The 3rd Big East team on the bubble and the least likely to get in. Georgetown has just fallen apart recently. I cannot see them getting in.

Gone
Miami(Ohio) loses to Marshall
They have the weakest of the mid-major profiles.

Debunking Dumb Theories (Conference strength matters)

2005-03-05T20:30:00.000-08:00

Latest theory. Illinois can't win the national championship because of their weak conference. Currently the Big Ten has a conference rank of 5. Let's look at the rank of the some of the previous champion's conference.

2004 UConn 3rd
2003 Syracuse 6th
2002 Maryland 2nd
2001 Duke 3rd
2000 Michigan St. 1st
1999 UConn 5th

* It seems ironic that the Big 10 is the last conference ranked #1 to have a national champion.

So considering the current rank of the Big 10, 33% of the past 6 champions have come from a conference as weak or weaker than Illinois's conference.

Conference RPI numbers are not readily available before then. If anyone can find them please send them to me.

So as you can see, there is a correlation between a major conference and a NCAA champion, but how good the conference is, is irrelevant. The last champion not to come from a major conference was UNLV in 1990. One other point to note, major conferences have better teams so you can't assume that national champs have to be from a major conference they just have the best teams. This theory just doesn't hold.

Now you may argue that the way that the conference rank is calculated is not accurate. Well that is what people point to, to say that the Big 10 is in a down year. If you disagree, show me another metric to use and I will show you that using that metric proves that conference strength does not determine champions.

We can't use stats alone (Rebuttle)

2005-03-04T23:11:00.000-08:00

I received an e-mail about a rebuttle to a previous article

The e-mail claims that it can use stats to predict who will make the tournament. Here are their current predictions if the committee uses the Old RPI vs the New RPI.

They system claims to only have an average of 2 teams incorrect over the past 5 years. Even though the teams are numbered no claim is made for their seeding once selected.

I would ignore the New RPI method. There are 2 reasons for this. The first reason is it does not pass the smell test. There are too many teams in the list that are not at large candidates. The second reason is that the selection committee said that this year will not be a breakthrough for mid-major teams. That would exclude the new RPI from any calculations since there are an abundance of these teams with a great RPI.

Using the old RPI the list is fairly accurate. There are some conference leaders from low majors in the at-large list that would never get an at large bid. If they all win the method will be off by about 2 or 3 as the list currently stands. I have no idea if the teams in the list will change if the conference leaders lose in their respected tourney. I will withhold judgement of this method until it gets closer to tourney time. I will post any clarifications I receive about the method.

I do wonder how long this method will work. There are two assumptions the method makes.

1) The selection committee uses the same method to evaluate teams year to year.
2) The selection committee is consistent in applying the method year to year.

First the selection committee is starting to tinker with the metrics used to evaluate teams. This makes both points above invalid. Second teams are getting wise as to how the RPI is calculated and are starting to change the way they schedule. When teams try to manipulate the stats the stats are no longer useful in being an unbaised evaluator of teams. I predict that the RPI will be rendered useless over the next 10 years which will make computer models useless as well. As for now the method is interesting and valid (the old RPI method) and worth a look. I will definately alert you to the final results.

Mariotti Award Winner

2005-03-04T13:19:00.000-08:00

Mariotti Award - In honor of the Sun Times writer Jay Mariotti. This is awarded to the author that goes above and beyond the call of duty in trying to prove that your team is better off either losing or being ranked lower than they are.

Today's winner. Is it just me or is the last time you tried this argument when you lost to a sibling. When you lost you tried to convince them that you really wanted to finish second to them. I haven't heard this kind of reasoning since I was 5.

Authors point: It is better to be a #2 seed than a #1 seed.

Rebuttal: Do I need one? I will just use the author's own quote against him.

"Statistically, the 1s have a better chance". Really, you don't say ? Heck I'd rather be a two seed.
Bonus quote Mariotti would be proud of: "Also, considering all the pressure, I'd rather be a 2 seed going into the Madness." Of course we know that #2 seeds have no pressure. Heck with that reasoning why not be a 3 seed they have even less pressure.

As you can see the author is a well deserving recipient.

Basketball Trivia

2005-03-04T12:18:00.000-08:00

What old TV show did Dick Vitale have a cameo role in?
Who also had a cameo role as his partner?
What job did they have?

Winner gets a free year's subscription to this site. (No using google) Send me an e-mail or post in the comments.

Why we can't use stats alone?

2005-03-03T00:48:00.000-08:00

For those of you who have complained far and wide about how we cannot use stats alone to seed teams or decide who is in the tournament I agree. Never said we should. They are an interesting guide and fairly accurate predictor about which teams have the stuff and which teams are all fluff. Regardless here is an article that proves your point. The seedings are worth a chuckle or two.

*Note: I am sure that the author is not saying teams should be seeded this way. He is just pointing out how the seedings would be if each team was seeded by their ranking.

Games of the Day (3/2)

2005-03-03T00:08:00.000-08:00

This will be short today since I am on the road. Don't expect much till the weekend.

Wake Forest (25-4, 12-3) 98 - Georgia Tech (16-10, 7-8) 91
Wake Forest keeps rolling. Might be the best team in the ACC right now. With Georgia Tech playing NCState next at least one other team besides the big 3 will be at .500 in conference play. With the love the ACC got from the selection committee last year I have to think Georgia Tech is safe if they beat NC State.

Oklahoma St. (21-5, 11-4) 69 - Texas A&M (17-8, 7-8) 63
Oklahoma St. rebounds nicely like you would expect from a Championship caliber team. Texas A&M had a chance to sneak in for a bid with a win here, but it wasn't meant to be.

UConn (20-6, 12-3) 83 - Georgetown (16-10, 8-7) 64
UConn now one win away from sharing a conference title. Syracuse will try to stop them since they have a remote chance to share a Big East title with Boston College and UConn. Georgetown is reeling. 4 losses in a row. Do not give the committee a chance to exclude you at this point. I guarantee they don't want to send 8 teams from a single conference. Now they have a reason not to.

Iowa St. (16-10, 8-7) 67 - Missouri (14-15, 6-9) 49
Rumors are that Missouri already making plans for a press conference after the first day of the Big 12 tournament is completed. Wonder if it will have anything to do with looking for a new coach. Iowa St. gets needed win. I think they are in with another win, but that RPI of 78 is troubling (54 calculated the old way).

Minnesota (20-9, 10-6) 73 - Penn St. (14-14, 6-9)
20 wins, 10 in the Big 10 have to be enough. I have to disagree with the Bubble watch on ESPN. Minnesota has a dance ticket.

Iowa (18-10, 6-9) 74 - Ohio St. (18-11, 7-8)
First time Iowa has put back to back wins since December. This game has nothing to do with the tournament selection. I just wanted to point that out. Iowa reminds me a lot of the Miami Dolphins before Ricky Williams left. They start strong, but always manage to fall apart by the end of the season.

If basketball was like football

2005-03-02T15:50:00.000-08:00

The following bids would be handed out. Here is your NCAA postseason.

National Championship Game (RPI #1 vs #2):
Illinois vs Kansas

ACC Champ vs Automatic Berth for being RPI #3
N. Carolina vs Oklahoma St.

Automatic Berth for being RPI #4 vs Big East Champ
Wake Forest vs Boston College (They beat UConn)

SEC vs Pac-10
Kentucky vs Washington (Not sure who has the tie breaker, but Lute Olson can cry West coast bias now)

Stop the nightmares!!!!!!

2005-03-02T13:48:00.000-08:00

Is it just me or did the end of the Indiana/Wisconsin game remind anybody of how the Flying Illini ended their run?

Missed 3 pointer comes up short. Hits the rim on a funky rebound angle and then the opposition puts in the winning bucket as time expires.

Thought I finally put that out of my mind.

Someone who takes an opposite viewpoint

2005-03-02T09:27:00.000-08:00

Here is an article that thinks that the ACC is overrated.

The author makes three points for his argument

The ACC is not getting as many tournament bids as the Big East
The ACC has a losing record against the Big East
Teams came in from the Big East and did better in conference play in the ACC than what they did in the Big East.

The first point is meaningless. How good a conference is has no bearing on how many tournament teams the conference gets. I remember a few years ago when the Big Ten got 6 teams and went 1-6 in the tourney. The second and third points are interesting, I'd have to dig further to see if that is actually true and see if there is any reason why.

He forgets to mention that the ACC is by far the best conference when facing the Top 25. He also doesn't get to why the ACC is overrated. He argues that the Big East is good. The ACC is definately good as well.

One point to add about the Big East from his article. Yes the Big East is deep, but they are not going deep into the tournament. Look at my tournament projections on the side and compare the resumes of the ACC vs the Big East teams. The ACC resumes are much better.

One other thing, how did I get in the business of defending the ACC? I think I am getting myself kicked out of Big 10 circles.

Thanks to William for the heads up.

Games of the Day (3/1)

2005-03-01T23:14:00.000-08:00

Wisconsin (19-7, 10-5) 62 - Indiana (14-12, 9-6) 60
Ugly end to this game, missed free throws, bad fouls and horrendous rebounding. Crushing blow to Indiana. This should end their add large hopes. Wisconsin gets the 3rd seed in the Big Ten tourney and avoids Illinois until the finals. (if they make it that far).

St. Joesph's (16-10, 13-2) 69 - George Washington (18-7, 10-5) 56
This game confirms what we already know, neither is getting an at large bid.

Clemson (15-13, 5-10) 66 - Virginia Tech (14-12, 7-8) 64
Eazy tournament guage. If you are the same number of games above .500 as Clemson you are not getting in. Clemson keeps killing the bubble teams.

Mississippi St. (21-8, 9-6) 57 - Arkansas (18-10, 6-9) 55
Mississippi St. is in. Too bad Arkansas could not get it done in conference play. They are not as bad as the 6-9 conference record indicates.

New Tourney Projections

2005-03-01T18:26:00.000-08:00

Conference Bids
Big East (8)
Big 12(6)
ACC (5)
SEC (5)
Conference USA (4)
Pac 10 (4)
Big 10 (4)
MVC (2)
WCC (2)

Last 4 out
Texas A&M
Miami (FL)
Miami (OH)
UTEP

A welcome and a FAQ

2005-03-01T12:45:00.000-08:00

Thanks to Dave Sez for the nice words and link. Illini fans might want to check out his site to get some ACC news. Sorry, but the ACC does play real good basketball and it is not heresy to say so. The ACC is a facinating conference this year with quality play.

ACC fans may want to check out a few of the sites listed as well. They are good supporters of this site and deserve a few hits even if you don't like the teams involved. I would like to specifically point out Yoco Hoops. This is a great site for basketball discussion. Over here at the NCAA Madness blog all the good articles get published there as well since it is a very high quality site that mine does not live up to yet. You will find all the latest news there that you need to know.

Please check out Big Ten Wonk as well. Very helpful in getting me started.

Now that I have made my thank yous, I have also decided to answer a couple of questions that have been brought up about my articles.

Q. The Top Dogs from the ACC have more Top 25 victories than your analysis shows in your article about Is the ACC overrated. Why do you only show the record as 2-1?

A. The article was written a few days ago using Saturday's RPI numbers. The top dogs are now 4-1 against the Top 25. Major conference team's RPI's and SOS tend to rise as the season goes on and can be very volite as well.

Q. It sounds like you were hoping to prove the ACC was overated.

A. I was (at least that the bottom teams were). The numbers don't lie. They are good top to bottom. I had a choice with my article, either I can throw away the article or tip my cap to the ACC. I decided to tip my cap and was part of the reason that I sent the article to a few ACC sites so they can have the data to back up their assertion as the best conference in 2005. The other part was for the pub.

Q. Strength of schedule is a big determining factor in margin of victory.

A. True at the beginning of the season, but it will even out in conference play. Re: Boston College. Also look at Illinois over Wake Forest, Cincinatti and Gonzaga. Also strength of schedule is hard to calculate since a couple wins over +200 RPI opponents will kill this portion of an RPI SOS number. See my article Who has the higher strength of schedule to see how strength of schedule can be misleading. Kansas has the non-conference profile of Team A (to a sickening degree). That is why they can lose about 2-3 more games and still be #1 in the RPI.

Q. You cannot predict who will win the tournament by the margin of victory that they have.

A. True. I am not trying to predict who will win. If I did that you would be paying a fortune for my wisdom. What I am predicting is the teams that have the greatest chance to win. The great thing about the NCAA tournament is that anything can happen.

This Week's Articles

2005-02-28T21:38:00.000-08:00

Expect a tournament status update Tuesday evening. Enough interesting outcomes have happened to warrent an update.

Later in the week expect a follow up article about what other qualities Championship teams have.

There will also be an interesting article on determining which teams will make an early exit from the tournament. I will look at teams that got upset and what qualities they all shared.

Even if you are not an Illini fan, please check out Illinois Loyalty . He enjoyed my article about margin of victory and sent a lot of traffic my way and I would like to return the favor. Since I do not ask for money or post advertising, please click over and take a look at what he has to offer. A very professional site. Thank you for the front page splash.

Games of the Day (2/28)

2005-02-28T21:15:00.000-08:00

Pittsburgh (19-7, 9-6) 72 - Boston College (23-3, 12-3) 50
Is it just me or is Boston College looking more and more like just another decent team from the Big East. It looks like Boston College finally got the memo that the low scoring margin should correlate to a worse record than they currently have. Huge road win by Pittsburgh. They just removed the little doubt left about their tourney status. This will probably knock them out of the 8-9 game and into at least a 7 seed. A much better place to be.

Oklahoma (22-6, 11-4) 74 - Texas (19-9, 8-7) 58
The win Texas had over Missouri is looming huge now as Texas will most likely finish at .500 in conference. Just enough to make the tourney. If they don't get healthy quick they are about as sure a bet as can be for a first round exit. Oklahoma continues to roll. The margin of victory should not come as a surprise to anyone.

N. Iowa (20-9, 11-7) 67 - Wichita St. (19-8, 12-6) 66
Wichita St. is now gone from the tournament. Look at their resume. @SW Missouri St., San Francisco, S. Illinois, @N. Iowa, SW Missouri St. That is the only Top 100 victories they have. Couple that with 8 losses (2 in a row) and they don't have enough to get in. N. Iowa may get their spot but they are still 1 game behind in the standings. The MVC will be an interesting tourney to turn in for. Good win for N. Iowa. They are now in the conversation of teams that may dance.

Gonzaga (23-4) 87 - N. Colorado (4-18) 60
I hate these late season matchups between a great team and a dog. Expect the Zags RPI to drop a little bit. Can't we get more matchups like UCLA vs Notre Dame instead of these types of games.

Wow Illinois is good!

2005-02-28T13:35:00.000-08:00

Illinois is so good they can take the weekend off and still win the Big Ten title outright.

Is the ACC Overrated? (the Big East as well?)

2005-02-27T20:23:00.000-08:00

This is probably one of the most debated questions in college basketball by its fans. Arguments usually fall into two camps. The first camp is ACC fans and the East Coast media. They argue that the ACC is the best conference and no one is close to matching up to it. The second camp is everybody who is not an ACC fan. They are sick of hearing about the ACC. The second camp will agree that North Carolina, Wake Forest and Duke are good (there will be arguments about how good) but they think that the rest of the ACC teams would get beat no matter what top conference you put them in.

To determine how good the ACC is I will compare the four conferences that are slated to get the most Tournament bids. The conferences are the ACC, Big 12, Big East and Conference USA. The records below only deal with non-conference games. It didn't make sense to reward a conference for playing games against itself.

The top 25 and 100 teams are based on the RPI numbers.

	Top 3 Teams		Bottom Teams		All Teams
Conference	vs Top 25	vs Top 100	vs Top 25	vs Top 100	vs Top 25	vs Top 100
ACC	2-1 (.667)	5-1 (.833)	5-4 (.555)	20-15 (.571)	7-5 (.583)	25-16 (.610)
Big 12	5-4 (.555)	18-4 (.818)	1-2 (.333)	11-16 (.407)	6-6 (.500)	29-20 (.592)
Big East	0-3 (.000)	13-3 (.813)	1-5 (.167)	18-16 (.529)	1-8 (.111)	31-19 (.620)
Conference USA	0-3 (.000)	8-4 (.667)	1-8 (.111)	14-27 (.341)	1-11 (.083)	22-31 (.415)

There are some interesting details when looking at the chart above. First the ACC top dogs do not play a lot of quality competition out of conference. However they do win the games they play. The only loss is to Illinois. You can't dock any team for a loss at Illinois.

The second item you notice is that the Big East and Conference USA cannot beat the top competition. I was particularly surprised about the Big East numbers.

The ACC definately has the best teams top to bottom. Look at the record vs the Top 100. Only the ACC and Big East have a winning record. If you dig into the numbers further you see that they bottom part of the ACC has a winning record vs the Top 25 with 9 games played as well. No conference is even close to that. The bottom of the Big East and especially Conference USA are terrible against the Top 25.

Looking at the numbers above the ACC is clearly the best. To what degree they are the best is debatable. Unfortunately, they have earned the respect they get.

Games of the Day (2/27)

2005-02-27T11:24:00.000-08:00

Here are the games that matter for today.

Indiana (14-11, 9-5) 78 - Michigan St. (20-5, 11-3) 74 OT
Huge win for Indiana. They stay on life support for another day. Another huge game at Wisconsin on Tuesady. If Indiana wins that one then we can start the tournament talk. (Notice I said start the talk) Indiana perfect in the Big Ten at home. They are 3-8 on the road this year, so I'm not too optimistic about the Hoosiers chances Tuesday.

Villanova (19-6, 9-5) 67 - Georgetown (16-9, 8-6) 56
Right after I question how questionable their play away from home is, Villanova wins a nice game on the road. Good job. This loss doesn't kill Georgetown, but they might want to win another game before the conference tourney. A win @UConn would be impressive.

Wake Forest (24-4, 11-3) 90 - Virginia (13-12, 4-10) 68
Wake Forest continues its march towards a #1 seed. Hoping for a Duke win over North Carolina so they can have the #1 seed in the ACC tourney.

Wisconsin (18-7, 9-5) 64 - Ohio St. (18-10, 7-7) 56
Wisconsin gets rare road win. Need to keep winning away from Madison to prove they can make a deep tourney run. Big game against Indiana next. If Wisconsin loses they will be the #4 seed in the Big 10 tourney and will have to face Illinois in the semi-finals instead of the finals. They only thing Ohio St. has left to play for is to say they were the only team who beat Illinois in the regular season.

Nebraska (13-12, 6-8) 76 - Iowa St. (15-10, 7-7) 69
Two huge wins in a row for Nebraska. Winning at the right time, but way too late. Iowa St. goes from definately out to in to on the way out. Iowa St. cannot lose again. Bubble teams are starting to win, well except for this one.

Maine (13-14, 8-10) 87 - Vermont (21-6, 16-2) 66
If you are from a major conference you can lose these every so often, if you are from a mid-major conference you can even lose one of these. if you are from the American East you cannot lose these. Vermont's cannot lose another game before the conference final. I am not sure if they can even lose that now.

UCLA (16-9, 9-7) 75 - Notre Dame (16-9, 8-6) 65
A good non-conference battle for a change late in the season. Notre Dame is not in position to be dropping games. With the big East having the potential to get 8 teams you don't want to be at the bottom of the list in case the committee gets cold feet about letting that many teams in.

If you are Notre Dame you have to think about this. Stanford beats UCLA twice, UCLA beats Notre Dame. All three are bubble teams. Not a fair way to compare Stanford to Notre Dame, but that may be the logic used if there are 2 spots and these 3 teams left. Plus the Pac-10 is rated higher. May also be unfair, but when you are team #8 from a conference people are going to be using logic to keep you out instead of trying to get you in.

Florida (18-7, 10-4) 66 - S. Carolina (14-11, 6-8) 65
That sound you heard was S. Carolina's bubble popping. They were on life support as it was. Florida just took them off life support. They are dead.

Kansas (21-4, 11-3) 81 - Oklahoma St. (20-5, 10-4) 79
I hope the excitement of this game is a good indicator to how good the tournament will be. Kansas turns things around in a big way. Huge win. I am not sure what Oklahoma St. was trying to accomplish with that last shot. They had more than enough time to get a quality shot but couldn't. After driving up the lane at will all game, the lane was shut down at the end and Ok. St. didn't know what to do. As I predicted Simien had a big game 32 pts and 12 boards. Nice way for Kansas to break out of a slump.

Point to remember: in the tournament you need to usually win 4 tough games in a row if you are a high seed. Kansas is 1-3 in the last 4 tough games.

North Carolina (24-3, 12-2) 85 - Maryland (16-10, 7-8) 83
Maryland with a nice comback at the end of the game, but comes up short at the end. As usual Maryland plays the best teams tough. If they played the easy teams tough they wouldn't be on the bubble. The win solidifies the #1 spot for Carolina. They would have to lose 3 straight to even be considered for a #2 seed. Given the enameration with this team I don't know if even that would move them now.

When basketball is like Chemistry class

2005-02-26T22:00:00.000-08:00

I had a Chemistry class back when I was in College that had a terrible homework policy. Homework absolutely had to be done. No problem, but doing a good job would not help your grade. Doing a bad job on the homework or not turning it in would cause your grade to drop.

This is similar to these basketball games. Wins will not help the teams involved, but a loss will hurt their seedings. All the teams took care of business.

Syracuse 91 - Providence 66
Boston College 70 - Seton Hall 58
Duke 58 - St. John's 47
DePaul 53 - St. Louis 49
Oklahoma 103 - Baylor 60
W. Virginia 76 - Rutgers 58
Charlotte 81 - S. Miss 58
Cincinnatti 89 - TCU 74
Utah 69 - BYU 60
LSU 77 - Auburn 64
Mississippi St. 71 - Mississippi 68
St. Mary's 86 - San Diego 83
Nevada 76 - Fresno St. 63
Holy Cross 66 - Army 49
Pacific 75 - Northridge 61

Games of the Day (2/26)

2005-02-26T20:55:00.000-08:00

Texas (19-8, 8-6) 63 - Missouri (14-14, 6-8) 51
Texas absolutely needed this one. Texas has finally reached the point where they can lose all their games before the tournament and still make it. They are playing for seeding now.

Kentucky (22-3, 13-1) 78 - Alabama (21-6, 10-4) 71
Who said Kentucky can't win a big game on the road. Kentucky stakes its claim for a #1 seed.

S. Illinois (24-6, 14-3) 65 - Wichita St. (19-7, 12- 5) 55
S. Illinois clinches the Missouri Valley title. Wichita St. may be at the point where they have to make the Missouri Valley title game or it may be the NIT for them.

Rhode Island (5-20, 3-11) 65 - St. Joe's (15-10, 12-2) 60
Best way to impress the committee when you are on life support. Lose to a 4-20 team. Can we finally stop the St. Joe's automatic tournament bid chatter now. St. Joe's is now 3-9 on the road.

Minnesota (19-9, 9-6) 59 - Purdue (7-18, 3-11) 57
Minnesota comes back from 15 down in the 2nd half to avoid another disastrous loss. Minnesota is now 1 win away from the tournament.

Georgia Tech (16-9, 7-7) 76 - Miami (16-10, 7-8) 72
Georgia Tech suddenly looking much better. If they win the finale against Clemson it should be enough. A win at Wake Forest would be gravy. While I think the ACC bubble teams are overrated, when you compare them against other bubble teams they don't look so bad. Miami's last game is @Duke. They are in trouble.

NC State (16-11, 6-8) 74 - Virginia Tech (14-11, 7-7) 54
NC State is still on life support. The quality of bubble teams keeps both of these teams in the conversation.

Texas A&M (18-7, 7-7) 85 - Texas Tech (17-8, 9-5) 65
This moves Texas Tech off of life support. Can the Big-12 really get 7 teams in? What a statement game. While many bubble teams are playing their way out. Texas A&M is playing their way in.

Washington (23-4, 14-3) 93 - Arizona (24-5, 14-3) 85
Game of the day. Washington looked good. Washington making a statement along with Kentucky on why it should get the last #1 seed.

Stanford (16-10, 10-6) 58 - Oregon (13-12, 5-11) 56
Stanford gets a needed win and avoids letting the Oregon teams sweep them out of the tournament. Next up the Washington teams. We recommend sweeping them to avoid unneeded stress on selection Sunday.

UConn (19-6, 11-3) 73 - Pittsburgh (18-7, 8-6) 64
UConn still trying to play for position. With Pittsburgh's recent performance I'd like to move them to the bubble, but with the weakness of the bubble teams Pittsburgh is still looking good. They may want to win another game or two before the regular season ends. The way they are playing they could be staring down the Illini in a second round game. Seems a fair reward at this point.

Louisville (24-4, 12-2) 53 - Memphis (16-12, 9-5) 44
Louisville comes back from a 10 point 2nd half deficit to win by 9. Louisville makes it's statement for a #1 seed. Nice statement, but they are not going to get it unless a lot of teams fall. Memphis is in bigger trouble. I still can't see this team going anywhere but the NIT. 44 points ouch!

Tournament Status of Teams (2/25 - Teams on Life Support)

2005-02-25T21:43:00.000-08:00

Here are the teams that are on life support. They need a miracle to occur plus a little help on top of the miracle to get a bid.

RPI(Old) - The RPI as calculated this year (vs the RPI calculated in previous years)
R/N - Road and Neutral site record
L10 - Record in last 10 games
Good win - A win against a Top 50 RPI team
Bad Loss - A loss against a team ranked lower than 100

Atlantic-10
St. Joseph's (15-9, 12-1, RPI 69(80), 3-8 vs Top 100, R/N 7-8, L10: 8-2)
Good Wins: Davidson
Bad Losses: @Dayton
The question: "How can you leave St Joe's out of the tournament?" The answer: 3-8 vs the top 100. Look at all the teams above them. Let me know how many did that bad vs the Top 100.

ACC
NC State (15-11, 5-8, RPI 88(106), 6-8 vs Top 100, R/N 5-6, L10: 4-6)
Good Wins: Georgia Tech, @Georgia Tech, Maryland
Bad Losses: @St. Johns, @Virginia Tech, Florida St.
Too many ACC teams to leap frog at this point.

Big-12
Texas A&M (17-7, 6-7, RPI 85(63), 5-6 vs Top 100, R/N 2-5, L10: 5-5)
Good Wins: Texas
Bad Losses: @Nebraska
I didn't know it was possible to play this few road games this late into the season. Too many teams ahead of them. The Big-12 is not going to send more than 6.

Big-10
Indiana (13-11, 8-5, RPI 83(52), 3-10 vs Top 100, R/N 3-8, L10: 6-4)
Good Wins: Wisconsin, Minnesota
Bad Losses: @Northwestern
They have one thing in common with Wisconsin. They have the same record in the Big-10. They have one thing that is not in common with Wisconsin. They are not going to the NCAA tournament. 3-10 vs the Top 100. Could they actually have a shot at the dance with back to back wins against Michigan St. and Wisconsin? Yes, but it won't happen.

Colonial Athletic Association
Old Dominion (24-5, 14-3, RPI 35(59), 9-3 vs Top 100, R/N 9-4, L10: 7-3)
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: @ Texas A&M Corpus Cristi
A 35 RPI would have had a chance last year. Not this year with the new inflated numbers.

SEC
South Carolina (14-10, 6-7, RPI 77(53), 5-8 vs Top 100, R/N 7-8, L10: 5-5)
Good Wins: Kentucky
Bad Losses: @Tennessee, Auburn
If the SEC was stronger they would be a bubble team. South Carolina needs more than a win against Kentucky for its resume. They have one more chance to impress vs Florida before the conference tournament.

Tournament Status of Teams (2/25 - The true bubble)

2005-02-25T21:01:00.000-08:00

Here are the bubble teams. These resumes all have flaws. You can make a better case for not including these teams than you can for including them. Check back later tonight for the teams that are on life support. As was indicated in the other post there are only 5 spots remaining. Too bad I don’t know if 5 are actually worthy.

RPI(Old) - The RPI as calculated this year (vs the RPI calculated in previous years)
R/N - Road and Neutral site record
L10 - Record in last 10 games
Good win - A win against a Top 50 RPI team
Bad Loss - A loss against a team ranked lower than 100

American East:
Vermont (21-6, 16-2, RPI(Old):23(42), 4-4 vs Top 100, R/N: 9-6, L10: 7-3)
Good Wins: @Holy Cross
Bad Losses: @American, @Maine
From In to a bubble team in one loss. It doesn't seem fair. Such is life from a small conference. Vermont now has a matching black eye to go along with that American loss. Vermont please win the conference tournament. You've had a great season don't blow it now. One more loss might finish Vermont off, especially if it is early in the conference tourney.

(2/25)Vermont has done about as well as they can for a school in a small conference. They played Kansas tough on the road and won all the games they should have. That loss to American is a black eye, but the committee wouldn't dare leave them out at this point.

ACC
Georgia Tech (16-9, 7-7, RPI 50(36), 5-8 vs Top 100, R/N 4-6, L10: 5-5)
Good Wins: Miami, Wake Forest
Bad Losses: Virginia Tech
Projected Seed: 9
(3/1) What a difference a few days make. Georgia Tech wins and lots of teams are dropping like flies around them. They are in good shape all of a sudden. All they have to do is take care of business against Clemson in the last game of the season. Not an easy task for ACC bubble teams lately.

(2/25)They aren’t going anywhere but the NIT until they get a winning record over the last 10 games. 4-6 in the last 10, 5-8 vs the Top 100. Not good. The only thing saving them is the win against Wake Forest.

Big East
West Virginia (18-8, 8-7, RPI 55(41), 5-7 vs Top 100, R/N 6-4, L10: 7-3)
Good Wins: @LSU, @Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh
Bad Losses: (N)Marshall
(3/1) All they have to do is beat Seton Hall. There are no teams that can jump them at this point without them losing. It is their bid to lose.

(2/25) They beat the easy teams and lost to the tough ones. The quintessential definition of a bubble team.

Georgetown (16-9, 8-6, RPI 61(68), 5-8 vs Top 100, R/N 6-5, L10: 5-5)
Good Wins: @Davidson, @Villanova, @Pittsburgh, W. Virginia
Bad Losses: @St.John’s Projected Seed: 11
(3/1)That win @Villanova will help Georgetown stand out from the competition. One more win should be enough. That RPI is starting to become a concern for Georgetown.

(2/25)That St. John’s loss was a killer. Can someone explain to me again why Iowa St., Texas and Maryland are considered safer bets to dance?

Big 12
Iowa St. (15-10, 7-7, RPI 79(58), 6-7 vs Top 100, R/N 3-7, L10: 7-3)
Good Wins: Oklahoma, @Texas, Texas Tech, @Kansas
Bad Losses: @Xavier, @Kansas St., Nebraska
Projected Seed: 12
(3/1)From almost in on the 25th to just about out on 3/1. Iowa St. turning things around again. This time for the worst. A drop of 19 points in the RPI since we last checked in with them.

(2/25)How does a team go 3-7 on the road losing to Xavier and Kansas St and then win at Kansas? Iowa St. is finally turning things around at the right time. 7-3 in the last 10 is not bad at this stage of the season.

Missouri Valley Conference
N. Iowa (20-9, 11-7, RPI 35(40), 6-6 vs Top 100, R/N 8-7, L10: 7-3)
Good Wins: S. Illinois, @Wichita St.
Bad Losses: @Evansville, @Bradley, @Drake
Projected Seed: 12
(3/1) Took Wichita St.'s spot. The MVC deserves two spots. The team to advance to the final against S. Illinois will get this spot. This is a rare case where a tournament spot is reserved for a conference.

Pac-10
Stanford (16-10, 10-6, RPI 37(42), 7-8 vs Top 100, R/N 7-9, L10: 7-3)
Good Wins: Arizona, @UCLA, UCLA
Bad Losses: (N) Tennessee, @Santa Clara
Projected Seed: 9
(3/1) Living life on the edge. If they keep playing teams close they are eventually going to be burned. They win, others lose and they find themselves with a 9 seed. I am not sure if it is deserved though.

(2/25)If the last tournament spot comes down to UCLA and Stanford, Stanford is in good shape.

Tournament Status of Teams (2/25 - Teams that are looking good)

2005-02-25T17:37:00.000-08:00

Next we look at the teams that are looking good for a bid. As you will see the resumes of these teams are not of the same quality as the teams that are in. Check back later tonight for the teams that are truly on the bubble. Counting these teams with the teams that already have bids only leaves 6 remaining open spots.

Almost every single bubble team and team on this list dropped in the RPI. I am not sure exactly what that means.

RPI(Old) - The RPI as calculated this year (vs the RPI calculated in previous years)
R/N - Road and Neutral site record
L10 - Record in last 10 games
Good win - A win against a Top 50 RPI team
Bad Loss - A loss against a team ranked lower than 100

ACC
Maryland (16-10, 7-8, RPI 36(29), 6-8 vs Top 100, R/N 4-7, L10: 5-5)
Good Wins: @Duke, Duke, Georgia Tech
Bad Losses: Clemson, @Clemson
Projected Seed: 9
(3/1) Looking good maybe isn't the proper designation for Maryland. Maybe looking good enough is. If they beat Virginia Tech they are fine. If they lose they have to sweat it out. Maryland probably has done enough to warrent a bid.

(2/25)The predictions are on what the committee is going to do, not on what should happen. Just because you are in the ACC should mean squat. You should actually have to win more than a couple quality games. Terrible on the road and against the Top 100. This team is sinking fast.

Big-12
Texas (19-9, 8-7, RPI 47(35), 4-9 vs Top 100, R/N 4-7, L10: 5-5)
Good Wins: Oklahoma St., Texas Tech
Bad Losses: None
Projected Seed: 10
(3/1) Win against Missouri gets Texas to at least .500 in conference. You can definately make a case why they are playing their way out of the tournament. The problem is you have to find a team to replace them

(2/25)Texas cannot win on the road. This is another team that is sinking fast. Like Maryland, conference affiliation is going to sneak this team in. Texas is going to be going home from the dance early.

Big East

Notre Dame (16-9, 8-6, RPI 53(36), 6-8 vs Top 100, R/N 4-6, L10: 4-6)
Good Wins: Villanova, UConn, Boston College
Bad Losses: @Michigan
Projected Seed: 8
(3/1) Beat all the right teams in the Big East. Win against Rutgers should be enough. 4-6 in the last 10 shows Notre Dame is not on the right track. They need to start playing better than they did against UCLA. That was one of the most uninspiring performances I have seen in a while.

(2/25)That win over Boston College will go a long way in impressing the selection committee. I can’t understand why Maryland is considered a safer bet over Notre Dame either. This is coming from someone who is not a fan of the Big East either.

Big-10
Minnesota (19-9, 9-6, RPI 48(30), 6-7 vs Top 100, R/N 5-6, L10: 6-4)
Good Wins: Holy Cross, Wisconsin
Bad Losses: Florida St., Northwestern
Projected Seed: 10
(3/1)1 win away from being a lock.

(2/25)Big 10 supporters can’t complain about getting no love. Minnesota’s resume is way too shaky to be sitting on this side of the bubble.

Pac 10
UCLA (16-9, 9-7, RPI 39(35), 7-8 vs Top 100, R/N 6-6, L10: 6-4)
Good Wins: Washington
Bad Losses: @Oregon St.,
Projected Seed: 8
(3/1) Only the two Oregon schools at home stand in the way of their tournament bid.

(2/25)California Better hope they are not fighting with Stanford for that last tournament spot. Just win at Notre Dame and all ills will be forgotten. (or enough to be tournament bound)

SEC
Florida (18-7, 10-4, RPI 32(27), 6-5 vs Top 100, R/N 5-4, L10: 7-3)
Good Wins: Alabama
Bad Losses: @Florida St., Tennessee
(3/1) They probably have done enough to make the tournament. A win at Kentucky at the season finally would improve their standing considerably.

(2/25)A loss to Tennessee in football is considered a good loss, not in basketball. A good example of why the SEC is down this year. Florida is clearly hit big by the change in RPI calculation.

Mississippi St. (19-8, 7-6, RPI 30(32), 6-6 vs Top 100, R/N 9-7, L10: 5-5)
Good Wins: (N) St. Marys, Florida, Arkansas Little-Rock
Bad Losses: @Tennessee, @Auburn
Projected Seed: 8
(3/1) Looking better all the time. A chance to get revenge against Alabama for the beating they took earlier in the season. Mississippi St. is most likely in at this point.

(2/25)Obviously the best resume of the bubble teams. Probably not a fair categorization of this team. If they keep winning I will move them up.

LSU (17-8, 10-4, RPI 26(26), 8-6 vs Top 100, R/N 5-7, L10: 8-2)
Good Wins: Mississippi St. @ Mississippi St., Florida, Alabama
Bad Losses: @ Southern Mississippi, @Tennessee
Projected Seed: 8
(3/1) They probably have done enough to be a lock as well. They just need to avoid a let down the rest of the way. No real competition before the SEC tourney.

(2/25)Loss at Southern Mississippi. Ouch. Good thing that loss is ancient history. LSU doing exactly what the selection committee wants to see. Good record in the last 10 games. 3 straight Top 50 victories. The only weakness is that 3-7 Road/Neutral record. That is a good indicator of a team that will exit early.

WCC
St. Mary’s (23-7, 10-3, RPI 32(46), 3-2 vs Top 100, R/N 8-6, L10: 8-2)
Good Wins: Gonzaga
Bad Losses: (N) Memphis, @Rutgers, @Hawaii, Santa Clara, @Santa Clara
Projected Seed: 10
(3/1) Two real at large bids from the WCC. St. Mary's is most likely in, they just have to make it to the conference finals to guarantee that bid.

(2/25)St. Mary’s is looking good right now. They have Gonzaga to thank. The win over Gonzaga puts them in. The reason St. Mary’s is in is sympathy from other small schools getting shafted along with another way for the committee to reward Gonzaga.

Tournament Status of Teams (2/25 - Teams that are In)

2005-02-25T11:18:00.000-08:00

First we will look at the teams that have taken care of business. Not as interesting to discuss as the bubble, but the winners should have top billing. Check back later tonight for the rest of the analysis.

Below is the current status of all the teams looking for a tournament bid. There are 31 automatic bids. Counting the automatic bids and assuming that a team that are already in wins the conference tournament. There are 15 available bids still up for grabs.

In
The following teams have done enough to earn a tournament bid.

RPI(Old) - The RPI as calculated this year (vs the RPI calculated in previous years)
R/N - Road and Neutral site record
L10 - Record in last 10 games
Good win - A win against a Top 50 RPI team
Bad Loss - A loss against a team ranked lower than 100

ACC:
North Carolina (24-3, 12-2 RPI(Old): 6(3), 14-2 vs Top 100, R/N: 11-3 L10: 9-1)
Good Wins: Kentucky, Vermont, @UConn, Maryland, Georgia Tech, @Maryland
Bad Losses: @Santa Clara
Projected Seed: 1
(3/1)Tough road win that puts Maryland on the ropes. Win against Duke in the finale and the ACC title is theirs.

(2/25)Is any justification needed for North Carolina? As long as they avoid the deer in the headlights look they had at the end of the Duke game, this team will be playing in April. Interesting how North Carolina is dubbed the best team, but they can't even beat the top competition in their conference. No wins against Duke or Wake. Have I bought too much into the North Carolina hype?

Wake Forest (24-4, 11-3 RPI(Old) 4(5), 15-3 vs Top 100, R/N: 9-4, L10:8-2)
Good Wins: (N)Arizona, Texas, Maryland, North Carolina, @Cincinnati, Duke
Bad Losses: @Florida St.
Projected Seed: 1
(3/1) Wake Forest has two games remaining against bubble teams. If North Carolina drops against Duke they can take the ACC tourney #1 seed and NCAA #1 seed in one big swoop. Wake Forest is the team that impresses me the most in the ACC so far. North Carolina will have to beat them in the ACC tournament to change my mind.

(2/25)Recovered nicely from their early season drumming @Illinois. Wake Forest is by far the most accomplished team to date in the ACC. Unfortunately all they can do is look up at North Carolina in the standings. People still believe North Carolina is better. Wake Forest will have to prove its case at the ACC tournament.

Duke (20-4, 10-4 RPI(Old) 6(4), 13-3 vs Top 100, R/N: 7-3, L10:6-4)
Good Wins: Michigan St., (N)Oklahoma, Georgia Tech, @Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Davidson
Bad Losses:@Virginia Tech
Projected Seed: 1
(3/1) Next game against a desparate Miami team. After that is the game that will decide the ACC crown. Unfortunately for Duke they have no stake in the crown. They are still in the hunt for a #1 seed if they win out.

(2/25)I would like to say that Duke is not in the same league as Wake Forest and North Carolina, but they beat both of them. Coach K. just knows how to win. I will reserve praise for Duke until they have a big scalp in their hands from a road or neutral game.

Big 12:
Oklahoma St. (20-4, 10-3, RPI(Old) 3(6), 11-4 vs Top 100, R/N:8-5, L10:7-3)
Good Wins: (N) Syracuse, @Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Arkansas Little-Rock
Bad Losses: @Nebraska (More like inexcusable)
Projected Seed: 2
(3/1) Up 6 with 4 minutes left and then up 5 with 3 minutes left against Kansas. Think Ok St. wants a do over? Still a top team, but no longer has the inside track on the #1 seed. This is two tough losses in the past week for this team. Interesting to see how they rebound.

(2/25)That loss at Nebraska is a killer. Either way the Big12 championship will be decided Sunday @Kansas. On pace for a #2 seed if they keep winning.

Kansas (21-4, 11-3, RPI(Old) 1(1), 17-4 vs Top 100, R/N: 6-3, L10: 7-3)
Good Wins: Nevada, Vermont, Pacific, Georgia Tech, @Kentucky, Texas, Oklahoma St.
Bad Losses: None
Projected Seed: 1
(3/1) Nice way to break out of a mini-slump. Unless Kansas goes on another slump, the #1 seed is now their's to lose. They have the #1 RPI by miles. The committee is not going to go against this number or the RPI will lose major credibility.

(2/25)Losers of 3 in a row and still #1 in the RPI. Wonder why? Look at the first 4 names in the good wins list. That was cannon fodder invited over for easy home victories. It turns out all 4 of them ended up with decent records. Remember the previous article on how strength of schedule is deceiving? Here is Exhibit A. Still feel like Kansas is of championship quailty after seeing the Top 50 list?

Oklahoma (22-6, 11-4, RPI(Old) 14(12), 10-6 vs Top 100, R/N: 8-5, L10: 6-4)
Good Wins: (N)Minnesota, UConn, Texas, Oklahoma St., Kansas, @Texas
Bad Losses: None
(3/1) First football and now Oklahoma is whooping on Texas in basketball as well. Nice road win, but that earlier win on the road against A&M may be better. That A&M win sure is looking better and better every day.

(2/25)Best road win was Texas A&M. This is an unproven team. Sorry Oklahoma fans. Win a decent road game and then get back to me with the complaints.

Texas Tech (17-8, 9-5, RPI(Old) 33(30), 8-8 vs Top 100, R/N 4-7, L10: 6-4)
Good Wins: @Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas , @UTEP
Bad Losses:
Projected Seed: 7
(3/1) Going the wrong direction the last couple of games. The resume is good enough to get them in even with a couple of more losses. Their seed continues to sink.

(2/25)Texas Tech is turning things around at the right time. That 4-6 Road/Neutral record is troubling however.

Big East
Boston College (23-3, 12-3, RPI(Old) 9(6), 10-3 vs Top 100, R/N 7-2, L10: 7-3)
Good Wins: @UCLA, Holy Cross, @UConn, Villanova, Syracuse, Kent St.
Bad Losses: None
Projected Seed: 3
(3/1)Boston College is falling back to the Big East pack. Now tied with UConn for the conference lead. Which is the true Boston College the one that started out 20-0 or the one that got crushed at home against Pittsburgh. Unfortunately for Boston College fans it is the latter.

(2/25)Boston College is making the Big East proud (or is it the ACC proud). Boston College has had the easiest of all the Big East schedules, but have taken care of business so far.

UConn (19-6, 11-3, RPI(Old) 20(13), 10-5 vs Top 100, R/N 7-3, L10: 8-2)
Good Wins: Buffalo, Villanova, @Syracuse, @Pittsburgh
Bad Losses: @UMass
Projected Seed: 4
(3/1) Who would have thought we would could be saying "UConn Big East regular season champions a couple of weeks ago" Very likely possibility at this point.

(2/25) Not the most accomplished of the Big East bunch, but they are the team on Boston College's tail.

Syracuse (23-5, 10-4, RPI(Old) 22(17), 9-5 vs Top 100, R/N 8-3, L10: 6-4)
Good Wins: (N) Mississippi St., @Villanova
Bad Losses: None
Projected Seed: 5
(3/1) Tough end of the season @UConn. Have an outside chance to share Big East title with victory in that game.

(2/25)That win at Villanova was impressive.

Pittsburgh (19-7, 9-6, RPI(Old) 45(28), 6-6 vs Top 100, R/N 6-3, L10: 6-4)
Good Wins: @UConn, Syracuse, @Syracuse, @Boston College
Bad Losses: @St. Johns
Projected Seed: 6
(3/1) Thrashing of Boston College just what Pittsburgh needed. Win at Notre Dame would get Pittsburgh to 10 conference wins and will keep them from getting confused with the bubble teams when the hand out seeds.

(2/25)Pittsburgh is your typical C student they are doing just enough to earn a passing grade into the tournament. Look at the RPI, .500 against the Top 100, Only 8 games away from home so far. Not the most impressive resume, but when you compare to the teams that are not in yet, it suddenly looks much better.

Villanova (19-6, 9-5, RPI 13(11), 9-6 vs Top 100, R/N 6-3 L10: 8-2)
Good Wins: Kansas, Boston College, Pittsburgh
Bad Losses: None
(3/1) No tough regular season games left. Should easily get the 11 conference wins.

(2/25)Boy picking tournament teams should be a required exercise for all college basketball fans. I thought Villanova would be a tough tournament out, until I realized that they do not have any quality wins away from home.

Big 10
Illinois (28-0, 14-0, RPI 2(2), 15-0 vs Top 100, R/N 14-0, L10: 10-0)
Good Wins: (N) Gonzaga, Wake Forest, (N) Cincinnati, @Wisconsin, Minnesota, @Michigan St., Wisconsin
Bad Losses: What Losses?
Project Seed: 1
(3/1) Haven't done anything since the last update. Well they haven't played a game, but they did win the Big 10 outright. Easy game Thursday against Purdue and then we can brace ourselves for the usual chatter about how Illinois is setup for a road loss. This time against Ohio St.

(2/25)Illinois has won more Road and Neutral games than almost every school has attempted.

Michigan St. (20-4, 11-2, RPI 16(14), 7-4 vs Top 100, R/N 7-3, L10: 9-1)
Good Wins: Stanford, UCLA, @Minnesota, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Bad Losses: None
Projected Seed: 4
(3/1) Well at least the Big 10 heads are happy about the loss to Indiana. The loss isn't as bad as you think. While Indiana tends to lose a lot, they don't lose at all at home in conference play.

(2/25)One of the hottest teams in the country now. It is no fun to be two games back in your conference when you have only lost two games. Clearly #2 in the Big Ten.

Wisconsin (18-7, 9-5, RPI 16(18), 8-6 vs Top 100, R/N 5-6, L10: 6-4)
Good Wins: Maryland, Alabama, Michigan St.
Bad Losses: @Pepperdine
Projected Seed: 6
(3/1) Nice road win against Ohio St. Need to win against Indiana tonight. Imagine having to fight for a high seed when Indiana finishes ahead of you in the Big 10.

(2/25)Clearly Wisconsin is a road dog. Badger fans save yourself the trouble and don’t worry about Sweet 16 tickets for this team.

Big West
Pacific (23-2, 16-0, RPI 21(24), 4-2 vs Top 100, R/N 11-1, L10: 10-0)
Good Wins: @Nevada , UTEP
Bad Losses:
(3/1) Perfect in conference should always get you in the tourney no matter what conference you come from. They have no concerns about getting in.

(2/25)Even without the change in RPI, Pacific’s is good enough for a bid. One has to wonder how with the lack of quality wins.

Conference USA
Louisville (24-4, 12-2, RPI 24(21), 8-3 vs Top 100, R/N 8-2, L10: 9-1)
Good Wins: (N) Stanford, @Florida, @Cincinnati, Cincinnati
Bad Losses: Memphis
Projected Seed: 3
(3/1) Two tough games to finish the season. If they win out they have a chance to reach a #2 seed.

(2/25)The cream of the crop in Conference USA.

Charlotte (21-4, 12-2, RPI 25(23), 9-2 vs Top 100, R/N 9-2, L10: 9-1)
Good Wins: Davidson, Cincinnati, DePaul
Bad Losses: Rutgers, @East Carolina
Projected Seed: 5
(3/1) Game against Louisville next to determine who is the best in Conference USA. The game is at Louisville so Charlotte will prove something with a victory against them.

(2/25)Not sure what to make of Charlotte. Those losses are terrible. Another team without quality wins away from home. The difference with Charlotte is that they actually win away from home.

Cincinnati (22-6, 10-4, RPI 17(15), 9-6 vs Top 100, R/N 7-4, L10: 7-3)
Good Wins: N. Iowa, (N) Miami (Ohio), DePaul, Charlotte
Bad Losses:
Projected Seed: 6
(3/1) Two cream puffs to finish out the regular season. Should be the 3 seed in the conference tourney.

(2/25)Cincinnati is one of the most overrated teams in the country.

DePaul (17-7, 9-4, RPI 34(29), 7-3 vs Top 100, R/N 4-6, L10: 7-3)
Good Wins: Old Dominion, Cincinnati
Bad Losses: N. Illinois, @Bradley, @Northwestern, @Memphis
Projected Seed: 9
(3/1)They just keep winning and winning late in the season.

(2/25)Another Conference USA team with horrible losses. Give DePaul credit for turning around their season after being left for dead after non-conference play. Like Pittsburgh DePaul is a C student. The difference is that Pittsburgh gets a C+ while DePaul gets a C--.

Missouri Valley Conference
Southern Illinois (24-6, 15-3, RPI 12(20), 8-5 vs Top 100, R/N 10-6, L10: 9-1)
Good Wins: N. Iowa , UTEP, Wichita St. @Kent St.
Bad Losses: @Hawaii
Projected Seed: 5
(3/1) Regular season champs. Should be a cake walk into the MVC finals.

(2/25)Is this the resume of the #12 team in the country?

Mountain West
Utah (23-4, 11-1, RPI 19(25), 3-4 vs Top 100, R/N 9-4, L10: 9-1)
Good Wins: LSU
Bad Losses:
Projected Seed: 6
(3/1) Will be bored until they face New Mexico in the conference finals. Joe Lundardi from ESPN has them at a 5. I have them as a 10 seed.

(2/25)Is this the resume of the 17th best team in the country? At least the Missouri Valley Conference is good.

Pac-10
Arizona (24-5, 14-3, RPI 8(9), 13-5 vs Top 100, R/N 9-4, L10: 8-2)
Good Wins: (N) Mississippi St., Utah, Washington, Stanford, @UCLA, @Marquette
Bad Losses:
Projected Seed: 3
(3/1) Glad to be out of the state of Washington. Almost take another Bad Loss at Washington St. The first one was bad it just didn't qualify to be listed above.

(2/25)One of the two best teams you won’t see on ESPN.

Washington (22-4, 12-3, RPI 8(9), 13-3 vs Top 100, R/N 8-4, L10: 8-2)
Good Wins: (N) Utah, (N) Oklahoma, (N) Alabama, Stanford, UCLA, Arizona
Bad Losses:
Projected Seed: 2
(3/1) Have the inside track for the highest tournament seed from the Pac-10. Have won some quality games away from home out of conference. I cannot believe this team is not in the discussion for a number 1 seed. Do I have them as a #1 seed. No, but I at least gave them some consideration.

(2/25)Has proven they can win at neutral sites. A more complete team than Arizona. Of course I can be proven wrong tomorrow. The other one of the best teams you won’t see on ESPN.

SEC
Kentucky (21-3, 12-1, RPI 11(10), 9-3 vs Top 100, R/N 8-2, L10: 9-1)
Good Wins: @Louisville, LSU, Florida, Mississippi St.
Bad Losses:
Projected Seed: 2
(3/1) This team has been hiding under the radar all season long. Just because the SEC is having a down year doesn't mean you should ignore this Kentucky team. Are proving to be more and more impressive as time goes on.

(2/25)Not the best team that Kentucky has fielded, but 3 losses at this juncture is not bad. This team has the potential to make it to the regional finals.

Alabama (21-5, 10-3, RPI 13(15), 8-5 vs Top 100, R/N 7-5, L10: 8-2)
Good Wins: @Charlotte, LSU, Mississippi St.
Bad Losses:
Projected Seed: 4
(3/1) Had statement game at home vs Kentucky. Unfortunately the statement was that Kentucky is still the best in the SEC.

(2/25)Other than Charlotte, Alabama is just not getting it done on the road. Perfect at home this season. The blow out at Florida is a good example of what happens when they venture outside of Alabama.

WCC
Gonzaga (23-4, 12-2, RPI 11(14), 6-4 vs Top 100, R/N 10-4, L10: 10-10)
Good Wins: Washington, @Oklahoma St., St. Mary’s, Georgia Tech
Bad Losses:
Projected Seed: 3
(3/1) Year after year the best of the WCC. Congrats to Gonzaga.

(2/25)Had done all a mid-major can do to build a quality resume. That win @Oklahoma St. shows that Gonzaga has the goods to beat just about any team. The problem is I don’t know if Gonzaga is deep enough to make a deep run in the tournament.

WAC
Nevada (22-5, 14-2, RPI 28(22), 4-4 vs Top 100, R/N 9-2, L10: 9-1)
Good Wins: Vermont, @UTEP
Bad Losses: @Fresno St.
Projected Seed: 7
(3/1) Two easy ones left and then on to the conference tourney.

(2/25)The win at home over Vermont guarantees an at large bid.

Thursday's 2/24 Recap

2005-02-24T20:37:00.000-08:00

Michigan St. (20-4, 11-2) 77 - Wisconsin (17-7, 8-5) 64
Listen to that silence around you. It is the critics off of Michigan St.'s back (well at least until they lose to another ranked team) Wisconsin fans I have some bad news for you. The NCAA tournament is not at the Kohl Center. 13-1 at home and 4-6 away from home. Not a good indicator for the Badgers.

Arizona (24-4, 14-2) 57 - Washington St. (10-14, 5-10) 56 OT
I guess Washington St. is one of those teams that Arizona just can't figure out. At least they come away with the win. By the time selection Sunday comes around everyone will have forgotten how close this was. Still on pace for a #2 seed. If they win out they have a shot at the #1 seed depending on how everything plays out. First things first. They have to beat the other Washington team. They will have to play much better than tonight to accomplish that.

Cincinnati (21-6, 9-4) 80 - Marquette (18-9, 6-8) 68
Too many teams ahead of Marquette now for them to capture an at large bid. This was their absolute last chance to get in the at-large conversation. Sub .500 records don't get bids in Conference USA. For Cincinnati they keep pace with the pack that is following the Conference USA leaders.

Oregon St. (15-11, 7-8) 84 - Stanford (15-10, 9-6) 83
Just when people start to believe Stanford is tournament quality material they go and do this. This loss isn't the end of the world, but their margin of error just got reduced to zero. A home win at Washington to end the season would do wonders for their resume.

UCLA (15-9, 9-7) 90 - USC (12-16, 4-12) 69
UCLA crushes its rival. Big road game at Notre Dame next. Win at Notre Dame + two winnable home games against the Oregon schools = Tournament bid.

Washington (22-4, 12-3) 90 - Arizona St. (18-10, 7-9) 82
Well played game. Washington is just the better team. For Arizona St. they should be kicking themselves, but this loss isn't the reason why. With Arizona St. dispatched, Washington can get ready for the monster matchup against Arizona. While many east of the Mississippi will overlook this game, over at the Madness blog we look forward to it. Remove the Pac-10 Showdown title from the game and replace it with ACC Showdown and this would be hyped beyond belief. Stupid move on the Pac-10's part on signing that contract with Fox.

St. Mary's (23-7, 10-3) 81 - San Francisco (14-12, 5-8) 77
Tied at halftime, tied at the end of regulation, tied after one overtime, tied again after 2 overtimes. Finally, St. Mary's pulls it out in triple overtime. St. Mary's couldn't afford a loss here. Kudous for pulling this one out.

Gonzaga (22-4, 12-2) 84 - Portland (15-14, 4-10) 68
Gonzaga gets a needed easy win and will stop the chatter about the closeness of some of the recent victories. Gonzaga continues to march towards a high seed. For those of you who don't believe in Gonzaga. Too bad. The committee is going to rank them high. The Zags will probably be around a 3 seed. Only time will tell if they are seeded correctly.

Who has the higher strength of schedule?

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Team A

Northeastern
Winthrop
Cal State Fullerton
Davidson

Team B

Illinois
Arizona
Longwood
North Carolina

The answer:

Team A - The SOS component according to the RPI (based on today's records) is .016 greater for Team A which would indicate that Team B's schedule is not only worse, but a .016 difference between teams can knock the SOS ranking by a factor of 30 or greater depending on where in the rankings the .016 difference falls.

Not fair is it.

*Note: The SOS is 2/3 your opponent's records and 1/3 your opponent's opponent's records.

Strength of Schedule for the Championship Teams

2005-02-24T12:59:00.000-08:00

There was a question raised about the margin of victory of championship teams verses the quality of competition they faced throughout the year. Here are the rankings based on how the RPI calculates the strength of schedule(SOS).

2004 UConn (11th)
2003 Syracuse (10th)
2002 Maryland (6th)
2001 Duke (4th)
2000 Michigan St. (11th)
1999 UConn (19th)

As you can see the schedules above weren't the easiest in the nation. Anything in the top 10 should be considered very tough. Anything in the top 25 should be considered a quality schedule as well.

How do the 3 teams in question stand as of 2/24?

North Carolina 24 (78 non-conference)
Boston College 29 (76 non-conference)
Illinois 47 (51 non-conference)

As you can see they have not played the toughest schedules in the nation so far. One interesting point though is that one or two games against a dog can bring down an otherwise quality schedule. Just ask Illinois and Wake Forest about what the game against Longwood did both to their SOS and their RPI score. Wake Forest won yesterday and dropped 4 spots in the RPI below Boston College who lost.

Of course all 3 team's SOS will improve once both the conference tournaments and NCAA tournament start.

At the end, Illinois and North Carolina will both be in the top 20 in SOS (assuming they make a deep run) and will have a high margin of victory (15+). Actually North Carolina will most likely hit the top 10. Boston College will be in the top 10 in SOS (assuming they win a few tournament games as well) and will have a low margin of victory in the 6 to 8 point range.

So here is more fuel to add to the debating fire. It doesn't change my initial analysis though. North Carolina and Illinois are the cream of the crop and Boston College is not in the same league as them.

Wednesday's (2/23) Recap

2005-02-23T18:05:00.000-08:00

Here is the straight up analysis for all the relevant games today.

West Virginia (17-8, 7-7) 70 - Pittsburgh (18-6, 8-5) 66
Huge win for West Virginia. They are no longer on the outside looking in after this game. While they are by no means in, their future looks much brighter. With Rutgers and Seton Hall left they have no one to blame but themselves if they don't get a bid.

For Pittsburgh this is a tough loss. These are the games that have to be won when you are looking for a 4 seed or higher.

Wake Forest (23-4) 88 - Longwood (1-29) 47
Wake Forest wins big. Their reward? Their RPI will drop big.

Syracuse (23-5, 10-4) 83 - St. John's (9-15, 3-11) 69
Syracuse gets a needed win after dropping 4 of the last 6. They should win out and can still get as high as a 3 seed if they do.

Duke (20-4, 10-4) 60 - Georgia Tech (15-9, 6-7) 56
Duke puts another nail in Georgia Tech's coffin. While a sub .500 ACC team could make the tournament. Georgia Tech is not one of those teams. With the rest of their schedule they are going to have a tough time making the tournament. The game at Miami next is huge for them.

Akron (17-7, 10-5) 55 - Miami (Ohio) (17-7, 11-4) 49
Killer overtime loss for Miami. Their only path into the tournament now is by winning the conference tournament.

Illinois (28-0, 14-0) 84 - Northwestern (13-13, 5-8) 48
Say hello to your Big 10 champs. They now get a week off before they get a chance against Purdue to win it out right. Northwestern didn't cause Illinois to break a sweat in this one.

Charlotte (20-4, 11-2) 80 - Memphis (16-11, 9-4) 77
Charlotte blows a 10 point lead, blows a chance to raise that sub-100 RPI, and really hurts their tournament chances. Look at Charlotte, 20 wins vs 4 losses. They are one of the best teams you have not heard about. Charlotte is a team you don't want to see in a second round or sweet 16 game.

Xavier (14-10, 8-5) 81 - George Washington (17-6, 9-4) 62
George Washington welcome to the list of teams that needs to win their conference tournament to make the big dance.

Kentucky (21-3, 12-1) 81 - Auburn (12-14, 3-10) 73
Kentucky takes care of business and clings to the hope that the ACC top dogs will knock each other off and they can sneak in as the last #1 seed.

Minnesota (18-9, 8-6) 65 - Iowa (16-10, 4-9) 57
Can we finally quit the talk about Iowa having a chance at the tournament? While I am a Big 10 guy this talk is crazy! Minnesota is now in control of its own destiny. They have a road game at Purdue and at Penn St. If they win both they are in regardless of what they do in the Big 10 tourney. Hopefully Minnesota doesn't play like they did in that home loss to Northwestern.

Florida (17-7, 9-4) 69 - Vanderbilt (16-11, 6-7) 61
Florida is still in, Vandy is still out. Status Quo here.

Villanova (18-6, 8-6) 76 - Boston College (22-2, 11-2) 70
Well fate has finally caught up with Boston College. You can only get so many close wins in a row before you lose as I mentioned in a previous post. Boston College gets back to a #1 seed and then quickly loses it. It seems like nobody wants that 4th #1 seed. Villanova continues to prove that they are a team no one wants to face it the tournament. (Un)Fortunately they could be an early flame out due to their Jekyll and Hyde personality.

Why Boston College is never mentioned in the same breath as Illinois and North Carolina

2005-02-23T14:04:00.000-08:00

You hear complaints from Boston College fans all the time on how they are disrespected and not given the credit deserved for a good season. It is a fair complaint. You don't see too many schools with 1 loss this late in the season from a major conference. There is a reason why Boston College does not get the same hype as North Carolina or Illinois. They are not as good as those schools. Let me explain.

There has been one indicator over the years that has been common among championship caliber teams. It is the average margin of victory. Lets take a look at some recent champion's margin of victory.

2004 UConn (+14.9, 3rd)
2003 Syracuse (+10.0, 17th)
2002 Maryland (+14.1, 5th)
2001 Duke (+20.2, 1st)
2000 Michigan St. (15.1, 5th)
1999 UConn (15.9, 4th)
1998 Kentucky (13.1, 10th)

While margin of victory alone does not determine the champion, it gives a good indication to who has the best chance to cut down the nets at the end of the season. Below is the margin of victory for Illinois, North Carolina and Boston College.

North Carolina (21.6, 1st)
Illinois (17.3, 4th)
Boston College (10.3, 33rd)

Breaking down the numbers further into double digit wins we find

Illinois 23
North Carolina 21
Boston College 10

Single Digit wins:

Boston College 12 (plus1 loss)
North Carolina 2 (plus 3 losses)
Illinois 4

The reason North Carolina and Illinois are so good is that they give opponents very few chances to win down the stretch. Therefore those teams games are less likely to turn on a bad ref calls or bad bounce in the final moments.

Conversely Boston College has had a lot of close games and won almost all of them. You have to give them credit for winning them, but history has shown that teams that have a lot of close victories won't win the tournament.

Why is that? There are two reasons for this.

Good team win. Great teams win big. Especially in college sports.
Teams that play a lot of close games wear down as the season goes on. That is why Illinois even though their starters have logged a lot of minutes will be fine come tournament time, because a lot of those minutes did not occur under high stress situations unlike Boston College.

Even though the average margin of victory for Boston College now stands at 10.3 it will be much lower by the time their season is over based on the quality of competition they will face the rest of the way.

To sum up, Boston College is a good basketball team. They are just not in the league of North Carolina and Illinois.

What is the deal with the Big 12?

2005-02-22T20:50:00.000-08:00

The big 12 is getting interesting. Lets take a look at the top half of this disfunctional family.

Kansas one week ago has zero losses. Then drops three straight.
Oklahoma St. becomes top dog and then takes a terrible loss against Nebraska
Texas Tech drops 3 games behind Kansas twice and now is only one back
Oklahoma drops 3 in a row to fall 4 back in the race and now is one back
Iowa St. gets a huge win at Kansas and then gets blown out at Texas A&M
Texas gets the easy wins, but can't win against the big dogs in conference (other than Oklahoma St.)

With the sudden parity at the top of the Big 12, who has the inside track at the title.

You still have to like Oklahoma St and Kansas for the regular season title. The big show down is Sunday at Kansas. Even though Kansas is reeling you have to take them at home over Oklahoma St. I believe Simien is going to have a monster game and win by double digits.

Being an Illini Alum, I do take pleasure in Self's team self destructing right before the tournament begins, but they will right the ship. After Oklahoma St., Kansas has a couple of cream puffs in Kansas St. and @Missouri. Beware if Kansas does lose. Who knows where they will bottom out at that point?

If Kansas and Oklahoma St. both fall, you have Oklahoma and Texas Tech waiting in the wings with a season finale against one another. The winner of that matchup will have a chance for a 3-way tie for the conference crown. With the game being at Texas Tech coupled with the way Texas Tech is playing lately you have to think they will the showdown.

Final projected standings:

Kansas (13-3)
Oklahoma St.(12-4)
Texas Tech (12-4)
Oklahoma (11-5)
Iowa St. (9-7)
Texas (8-8)

Tuesday's Game Wrap Up

2005-02-22T20:13:00.000-08:00

Miami (16-9, 7-7) 65 - Florida State (11-16, 3-10) 49
I was not a believer in Miami, but that is changing quick. A win Saturday against Georgia Tech or Duke next week should be enough for a good nights sleep before selection Sunday. Good road win for them today.

Texas Tech (17-7, 9-4) 69 - Texas (18-8, 7-6) 65
Who would have thought that a week ago that Texas Tech would have been in the title hunt. One game back with only a home game against Oklahoma the rest of the way to worry about. With the way Kansas is playing Texas Tech could be Big 12 champions.

Poor Texas, other than Oklahoma State, quality wins have been tough to come by in the Big 12 for them. While they are still in for now, they better beat Missouri next or they can set plans for a first round home game in the NIT.

Indiana (13-11, 8-5) 79 - Purdue (7-17, 3-10) 62
Indiana is still on life support. If they want to impress me they can beat Michigan State next. All those Indiana bashers have to keep in mind that the selection committee rewards teams with average records that play brutal non-conference schedules.

Gene Keady's misery continues. Not a way for a coach of his caliber to go.

Nebraska (12-12, 5-8) 74 - Oklahoma State (20-4, 10-3) 67
Does anyone want to win the Big 12 Title? Give Oklahoma State credit, they pulled off a feat that even Kansas or Texas couldn't pull off. They choked against Nebraska. They can kiss that #1 seed goodbye.

North Carolina (23-3, 11-2) 81 - North Carolina State (15-11, 5-8) 71
North Carolina still rolling. An ACC regular season title is very close now.

Clemson (13-3, 3-10) 97 - Maryland (16-9, 7-7) 93
Maryland is lucky they are in the ACC, otherwise they would be on the outside looking in. They better win one of their next two games or they are in trouble. If they drop the next two and the first in the conference tourney they are NIT bound. Even the ACC affiliation won't help them at that point. Knowing Maryland, they will beat North Carolina and lose at Virginia Tech.

LSU (16-8, 9-4) 61 - Alabama (21-5, 10-3) 59
LSU continues to play their way into the tournament. If they win out like they should, they will earn a decent seed. No shame in Alabama losing at LSU. One of the better games of the night. What an ending to this game. Neltner saves the day with a tip-in as time expires.

Texas A&M (17-7, 6-7) 75 - Iowa State (15-9, 7-6) 59
Iowa State loses as well? What is the deal with the Big 12. Iowa State finally gets in the good graces with the selection committee and then immediately lay an egg and get blown out by Texas A&M. Put Iowa State back on the bubble. With their schedule the rest of the way they should be fine, but they should have won this one or at least been competitive.

Oklahoma St. vs S. Illinois

2005-01-19T23:10:00.000-08:00

#2 Oklahoma St. vs #7 S. Illinois
S. Illinois will not be able to keep up with Oklahoma St. Oklahoma St. should also control the boards and the inside game. The big positive for Oklahoma St. is that they are playing a home game (sorry neutral site game) no it is a home game. S. Illinois has shown nothing all year to prove they can take down a top team from a power conference.

Prediction: Oklahoma St. (but nothing will surprise me anymore)

Louisville vs Georgia Tech Preview

2005-01-19T23:02:00.000-08:00

#4 Louisville vs #5 Georgia Tech
This is the game of the day Sunday. Tough call, Georgia Tech is now a whopping 3-9 vs tourney teams. Louisville does not have a great scalp yet. Hard to size up these two teams against each other. This game will come down to tempo. If the pace is quick with lost of scoring, Louisville should win. If it is a grind it out half court game, Georgia Tech will have the advantage.

Prediction: Louisville (Pitino, who is not overrated will have his team ready with a great game plan)

Michigan St. vs Vermont

2005-01-19T22:57:00.000-08:00

(5) Michigan St. vs (13) Vermont
24 Syracuse turnovers and Vermont only wins by 3 (on a shot almost from half court). While Michigan St. had problems with Old Dominion I don't expect them to have any problems with Vermont. If Tom Izzo looks at the Vermont tape he will notice that Vermont can not score against a team that plays a good zone defense, which Michigan St. can play. All Michigan St. needs to do is not turn over the ball and play good defense and they will win easily.

Prediction: Michigan St.

Duke vs Mississippi St Preview

2005-01-19T22:51:00.000-08:00

#1 Duke vs #9 Mississippi St.
Mississippi St. looked much better than Duke in the first round game. Was this an aberration? I don't think so. MSU is a good team and Duke is a little overrated. Unfortunately the home game (I mean close neutral site) for Duke will be the difference. I think that Redick is due a great game and his play down the stretch will make the difference.

Prediction: Duke (barely, with Redick hitting a big 3 to save the day)

Florida vs Villanova Preview

2005-01-19T22:45:00.000-08:00

#4 Florida vs #5 Villanova
Florida should have a second round bye. George Bush should have declared the Villanova/New Mexico game a federal disaster. The game should have been stopped early in the second half and both teams should have been declared losers. 20 turnovers and 28% shooting for Villanova in the last game. Villanova has been having trouble playing away from home all season and I expect that to continue against Florida. Florida has a tough first round matchup, but should rebound nicely to take down Villanova.

Prediction: Florida (Can Villanova play any worse than Friday?)

N. Carolina vs Iowa St. Preview

2005-01-19T22:40:00.000-08:00

#1 N. Carolina vs #9 Iowa St.
Both teams looked good in their first round victories. N. Carolina has McCants and he will be the difference. N. Carolina will pound Iowa St. on the inside. (a theme for the Sunday games it seems) Iowa St. is good, but not in the same league as Carolina. For Iowa St. to win they need to force Carolina to take tough shots from the outside, not allow easy transistion baskets and lots of 3's. If they can get McCants in early foul trouble they will have a better chance of victory.

Prediction: N. Carolina (N. Carolina has the goods, for Iowa St. we are saying if, if, if, if. Too many ifs to win)

Wisconsin vs Bucknell Preview

2005-01-19T22:28:00.000-08:00

#6 Wisconsin vs #14 Bucknell
This should be a cake walk for Wisconsin. The Wisconsin defense is terrific and unlike Kansas they will be smart enough to go inside for easy buckets, something Kansas did not do even though they had great success everytime they tried. Bucknell will get killed inside and will not get enough 3's to compensate.

Prediction: Wisconsin (No contest, Wisconsin will look at the Bucknell/Kansas tape, make the proper adujstments and spend the rest of the time laughing at Kansas for their poor game plan)

UConn vs NC State Preview

2005-01-19T22:22:00.000-08:00

#2 UConn vs #10 NC State
Big East vs ACC take 2. This should be an easy game for UConn. They have the better athletes and the better inside game. NC State does not have the outside shooting to overcome UConn if they can't get the ball inside. As we saw in the Wake Forest game the better team does not always win. Can you imagine the Big East bragging rights if they win this game?

Prediction: UConn
Bonus Prediction: You don't hear the record of the Big East vs the ACC during this tourney.

Oklahoma vs Utah Preview

2005-01-18T19:07:00.000-08:00

#3 Oklahoma vs #6 Utah
Oklahoma is going to be way too quick for Utah. Utah has Bogut, one of the best in the country, but does not have the weapons around him. Oklahoma will be able to contain him with their defense. Oklahoma has too many weapons inside and out for Utah to guard. This will be an easy victory for Oklahoma.

Prediction: Oklahoma

Kentucky vs Cincinnati

2005-01-18T18:33:00.000-08:00

#2 Kentucky vs #7 Cincinnati
If you asked me Wednesday who would win this game I would have said Kentucky easily, but then Cincinatti finally played up to their potential. Cincinnati has the ability to punish Kentucky on the inside, especially on the boards. I think that Kentucky will just be too quick for Cincinatti. If the frontcourt of Kentucky pushes Cincinatti around they should be able to win. Teams that have pushed back Cincinnati have had good success with them. Iowa was not one of those teams. I think Kentucky will be.

Prediction: Kentucky

Wake Forest vs West Virgnia Preview

2005-01-18T18:25:00.000-08:00

#2 Wake Forest vs #7 West Virginia
This is the 6th game in 11 days for West Virgnia. They looked tired against Creighton. Somehow they found the energy for a late game push that doomed Creighton. Conversly, Wake Forest looked good and crisp in the second half of their game. Unfortunately, this game will not come down to matchups it will come down to the fact that West Virginia is too tired to keep up with Wake Forest.

Prediction: Wake Forest

Gonzaga vs Texas Tech Preview

2005-01-18T08:27:00.000-08:00

#3 Gonzaga vs #6 Texas Tech
We have the one man show (Morrison) in Gonzaga against Texas Tech who Forest Gump said is"like a box a chocolates, never know what you're gonna get." (I'm pretty sure that is who he was refering to) The good Texas Tech team showed up against UCLA. Which team will show up against Gonzaga? This is a tough matchup to predict just for that reason. Gonzaga did not look good in their first round matchup. This game screams upset, but I have to give the edge to the Zags. Texas Tech will not shoot 60% again and Gonzaga should be able to push Texas Tech around a bit and their points in the paint will be the difference. Gonzaga will play better perimeter defense frustrating Texas Tech into a lot of turnovers.

Prediction: Gonzaga (with a layout and foul in the last minute to go ahead for good)

Washington vs Pacific Preview

2005-01-18T08:15:00.000-08:00

#1 Washington vs #8 Pacific
Both teams easily won their first round games (don't believe the garbage out there about Washington only winning by 11, the game wasn't close). Pacific is one of the best teams to come out of a low ranked conference in awhile. Washington is a very quick team and can score points in bunches. Pacific doesn't have the speed to match up and must get back on defense to avoid the easy buckets for Washington. If the shots aren't falling from the outside for Pacific it will be a short night for them, they don't have the inside game to bully around Washington.

Prediction: Washington

Washington vs Pacific

2005-01-17T23:12:00.000-08:00

#1 Washington vs #8 Pacific
The only game between two teams that were in total control of their first round games during the first day. This should be a good matchup. Pacific has shown that they can keep up with the better teams. Unfortunately for Pacific they haven't faced a team as quick as Washington yet. Pacific will need a great shooting night to beat Washington since Washington scores a lot of easy baskets. If Pacific shoots well and makes Washington work for baskets they have a chance. But look what I am saying if, if ,if, and if all the ifs happen Pacific has a chance. Too many ifs for Pacific.

Prediction: Washington

UAB vs Arizona

2005-01-17T22:52:00.000-08:00

#3 Arizona vs #11 UAB
Arizona had trouble with Utah St. while UAB destroyed, humiliated, and absolutely killed LSU. Don't read too much into it. Arizona's problem just had to do with the particluar matchup while UAB caught LSU on its worst night of the year. Arizona is a very talented team for which few teams outside of Washington have an answer for. The guards are going to run all over UAB.

Prediction: Arizona (The biggest mismatch of the 2nd round)

UW-Milwaukee vs Boston College

2005-01-17T22:43:00.000-08:00

#12 UW-Milwaukee vs #4 Boston College
12 3's for UW-Milwaukee against Alabama. UWM is going to need at least that many to get past Boston College. Boston College looks like a ticked off team on a mission. I feel sorry for any team that gets in their way. I don't think that UWM has the defense to take down Boston College. With how bad Alabama played, UWM may not have beaten them without all the 3's that they drained.

Prediction: Boston College

Illinois vs Nevada Preview

2005-01-17T22:37:00.000-08:00

#1 Illinois vs #9 Nevada
Illinois got a slight scare, but still won comfortably without exerting much effort. I still like Illinois to win since Nevada does not have the players to keep up with the Illinois guards nor the inside presence to punish Illinois down low. I think Nevada will hang with Illinois for 3/4 of the game, but eventually Illinois will wear Nevada down. I wouldn't want to be on the other end of whatever Weber was dishing out in the locker room after their first round game. Illinois will be much more focused for Nevada.

Prediction: Illinois (just over double digits)

Kentucky vs E. Kentucky Preview

2005-01-14T22:46:00.000-08:00

#2 Kentucky vs #15 E. Kentucky
This has to be a dream match-up for E. Kentucky. Unforunately they will be no match for the Kentucky front court. E. Kentucky has shown they are not competative against the top teams. They will be no match for Kentucky either.

Prediction: Kentucky

Cincinnati vs Iowa Preview

2005-01-14T22:45:00.001-08:00

#7 Cincinnati vs #10 Iowa
A game between two under achieving teams. I have held 3 principals since I have started writing.

Boston College is not as good as Illinois or North Carolina (proven true)
Memphis is not a tourney team. (proven true)
Cincinnati is over rated.

I believe I will be 3 for 3. Cincinnati will not be able to handle the scrappy Iowa defense.

Prediction: Iowa

Oklahoma vs Niagara Preview

2005-01-14T22:45:00.000-08:00

#3 Oklahoma vs #14 Niagara
This should be an entertaining game. There could be 30 or 40 points scored before the first intermission. Niagara should eventually wear down for an easy Oklahoma victory. This will be a high scoring game.

Prediction: Oklahoma
I wonder what is the more interesting number, the over/under on the game or the over/under on how many headlines will read "Niagara Falls" after Niagara loses.

Utah vs UTEP Preview

2005-01-14T22:44:00.001-08:00

#6 Utah vs #11 UTEP
Neither team has proven itself against the good teams. Yes that includes Utah. Bogut is going to be the difference in this game. Utah should be able to shut down the high scoring UTEP defense enough to pull this out.

Prediction: Utah

Syracuse vs Vermont Preview

2005-01-14T22:44:00.000-08:00

#4 Syracuse vs #13 Vermont
Everyone will be rooting for Vermont. I just don't see them winning. They are soft up the middle on defense. Warrick is going to run all over them. Vermont is going to need a stellar day shooting from the outside to have a chance.

Prediction: Syracuse (Warrick has at least 25 points)

Michigan St. vs Old Dominion Preview

2005-01-14T22:43:00.001-08:00

#5 Michigan St. vs #12 Old Dominion
This should be a real fun game to watch. Both teams like to push the ball up and down the court. Both handle the ball well. The knock on Michigan St. is that they can't beat the ranked teams. Well, Old Dominion is not ranked so I guess Michigan St. will win. Well that, their incredible shooting, the fact that they are the quicker team. Michigan St. can't slack off because Old Dominion will beat them if they get lazy.

Prediction: Michigan St. (Close, but not too close.)
If you must have a 2nd #5 team upset this may be the one to pick.

Stanford vs Mississippi St. Preview

2005-01-14T22:43:00.000-08:00

#8 Stanford vs #9 Mississippi St.
Both teams are not great ball handlers. The matchup is favorable for Stanford because Mississippi St. is not a quick team. Stanford should be able to handle the inside game of Mississippi St. I am not enamered with Stanford, but Mississippi St. has shown that they cannot beat the good competition.

Prediction: Stanford (in an ugly one)

Duke vs Delaware St. Preview

2005-01-14T22:42:00.000-08:00

#1 Duke vs #16 Delaware St.
Against Tournament teams Duke's average margin of victory is +6 and Delaware St's is -24. That comes out to a difference of 30 points. Sounds about right for the margin of victory of this game.

Prediction: Duke

Kentucky Tournament Resume

2005-01-14T22:41:00.001-08:00

Kentucky (26-5, 14-2, 1st SEC East, 1st SEC Overall)
Seed: #2 Austin Regional
How the got Here: At-large bid
Against the Field (6-4):
L @N. Carolina 78-91
W @Louisville 60-58
L Kansas 59-65
W LSU 89-58
W Florida 69-66
W Mississippi St. 94-78
W @Alabama 78-71
L @Florida 52-53
W (N)LSU 79-78
L (N)Florida 53-70

Tournament Games:
(2)Kentucky 72 - (15)E. Kentucky 64

The good: Good front court. Rolled through the SEC. 9-4 road/neutral record. Well coached. Good dribble penetration creates easy baskets or opportunities for open 3's.

The bad: Another team that can go long stretches without scoring. Doesn't have the defense to get away with this against the better teams. Had a stretch like this against Kansas early in the season. They would have been blown out if not for poor shooting from Kansas as well. The first half of that game was some of the worst shooting I have ever seen.

E. Kentucky Tournament Resume

2005-01-14T22:41:00.000-08:00

E. Kentucky (22-8, 11-5, T-2nd Ohio Valley)
Seed: #15 Austin Regional
How they got here: Won Ohio Valley Conference tourney
Against the Field (0-2):
L @Florida 49-98
L @Louisville 63-78

The Good: Good shooting team

The Bad: Have trouble scoring on the inside.

Cincinnati Tournament Resume

2005-01-14T22:40:00.001-08:00

Cincinnati (25-7, 12-4, T-2nd Conference USA)
Seed: #7 Austin Regional
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field (3-5):
W N. Iowa 76-70
L (N) Illinois 45-67
L Louisville 66-69
W Charlotte 80-58
L Wake Forest 70-74
L @Louisville 70-77
L @Charlotte 90-91
W UAB 72-69

Tournament Games:
(7) Cincinnati 76 - (10) Iowa 64

The good: Good defense, good inside game. Teams usually do not put up lots of points against the Bearcats.

The bad: Bob Higgins is just not a guy you can like. 3-5 against the tourney teams. Have trouble scoring against teams with a pressing defense.

Iowa Tournament Resume

2005-01-14T22:40:00.000-08:00

Iowa (21-11, 7-9, 7th Big Ten)
Seed: #10 Austin Regional
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field (7-6):
W (N)Louisville 76-71
W (N)Texas 82-80
L (N)N. Carolina 92-106
W N. Iowa 76-73
W Iowa St. 70-63
W (N) Texas Tech 83-53
W Minnesota 66-60
L @Illinois 68-73
L Michigan St. 64-75
L @Wisconsin 69-72
L Illinois 65-75
L @Minnesota 57-64
W (N) Michigan St. 71-67

The good: What a great start. 7-6 against the field. Incredible record for a #10 seed.

The bad: 3-6 on the road. No depth. Other than beating Michigan St. in the tourney they have not showed much since losing Pierce.

Oklahoma Tournament Resume

2005-01-14T22:39:00.001-08:00

Oklahoma (25-7, 12-4, T-1st Big 12)
Seed: #3 Austin Regional
How they got Here: At-large bid
Against the Field (7-6):
L (N)Washington 91-96
W (N)Minnesota 67-54
L (N)Duke 67-78
W UConn 77-65
W Texas 64-60
W Oklahoma St. 67-57
L @Iowa St. 66-74
L Texas Tech 81-88
L @Oklahoma St. 67-79
W Kansas 71-63
W @Texas 74-58
W @Texas Tech 74-54
L (N)Texas Tech 63-39

Tournament Games:
(3) Oklahoma 84 - (14) Niagara 67

The good: 10-6 Road/Neutral record. Good big men. Ended the regular season with 6 straight wins (3 against tourney teams). Fast and love to score in transition. Good rebounding and shooting team. Not many holes on this team.

The bad: Can go through long stretches without scoring. If they have a game like that late in the tournament it can doom them.

Niagara Tournamant Resume

2005-01-14T22:39:00.000-08:00

Niagara (20-9, 13-5, T-1st Metro Atlantic Athletic)
Seed: #14 Austin Regional
How they got here: Won Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tourney
Against the Field (0-1):
L @Bucknell 74-76

The good: Averages over 85 points a game. Can give teams fits with their ability to score.

The bad: 0-3 vs Top 100. Don't play great defense. Athletic teams can easily keep up with them. 5-9 on the road.