Monday, April 04, 2005

Championship Game Recap

(1) North Carolina 75 - (1) Illinois 70
Well so much for the conventional wisdom that big games do not live up to the hype. It started out as a North Carolina blowout and almost ended as another great Illinois comeback. Funny thing happened along the way, Steve Bartman stole a Luther Head pass with about a minute remaining to curse the Illini. OK maybe not, but you have to feel for Chicago sports fans. They have glory within their reach, ready to celebrate another great comeback and win a national title (heck win any title) and then it all slips away.

Well, enough with that, what happened in the game?

First things first, refereeing. Illini fans want me to say the refs were terrible, North Carolina fans don't want to hear anything of the sort. I do not believe the refs caused the Illini loss, I do believe Augustine pissed somebody off to get the treatment he did by the refs. That was not a difference maker in the game though.

Here is a question for you? How do you know when your team is taking way too many 3's? When you have a 3 on 1, Dee Brown driving and all you get off is a crummy 3 point shot. That play symbolizes why the Illini lost. They could not, no would not go inside. They had plenty of opportunities and had good success in the 2nd half when they went inside, they just pulled up their drives way too often. The guards were too afraid of blocked shots.

North Carolina on the other hand had great success on the inside, but did not pound the middle in the second half for some reason. That allowed the Illini to catch up and almost win.

If I would have told you before the game the Illini would have 8 more offensive rebounds than the Tar Heels, would you have thought that North Carolina would win? If I told you that the Illini would only shoot 38% would you have believed that the Illini would even be close?

The difference maker was turnovers. This is why I thought Carolina would lose, but guess what the Tar Heels only turned the ball over 10 times. That is why Carolina won. The Illini had 2 big runs, the first was in the beginning of the game which was fueled by turnovers, the second was around the midway point in the second half which was fueled by turnovers (and great 3 shooting). There were not enough turnovers to sink Carolina.

Give Carolina credit, they took it to the Illini early and never let them get ahead. They made the shots when they needed to and had the defense at the end of the game to shut down the Illini.

Championship Preview

How often in sports do you get the matchup that everyone expects and wants. (Well not everyone, but the majority anyways). This is it. This game has it all. #1 vs #2. An Illinois team that never won it all vs a coach who hasn't won it all. Conference bragging rights. The ACC and Big 10 are 2-2 in this tourney and the winner will give their conference the best overall tournament record. With that said onto the keys of the games.

Key 1: Foul Trouble. Louisville got Powell into foul trouble in the first half and he was ineffective. They could not duplicate that feat in the 2nd half and Powell took over the game. Powell almost always gets in foul trouble and North Carolina has to make it happen again. Illinois usually does not get teams into foul trouble, McCants would be the only candidate, but I don't see it happening.

Key 2: Defense. Illinois plays it, incredibly well. McCants does not. The rest of North Carolina defends OK. North Carolina needs a defensive effort like the second half of Michigan St. and not like the Wisconsin game. If North Carolina does not play defense like that second half of the Michigan St. game, Illinois is going to score a ton of points and most likely win easily, yes easily. If Roy Williams looked at the game tape from the Arizona Illinois games he will see that Illinois isn't nearly as good defensively if you get upcourt quick on offensive and move the ball around the perimeter. It wasn't so much that Arizona pounded the inside as much as they had Illinois off balance and then were able to stroll right into the lane for easy shots. That is why Arizona had success inside and Louisville did not. If North Carolina stops to set the offense and then tries to go inside, Roy Williams really is learning impared and probably never will get that championship.

Key 3: Rebounds. North Carolina has such a huge advantage here. All the Illini can do is to hope to limit North Carolina to as many 1 shot trips as possible. I know the Illini outrebounded Louisville. That was Louisville. This is North Carolina.

Key 4: Turnovers. Illinois usually does not turn the ball over, North Carolina has a lot of turnovers. A fast pace will probably not help North Carolina since Illinois is used to playing a quicker pace so North Carolina can not make up for all the turnovers with easy buckets, because there will be few easy buckets tonight. Illinois is lucky that their guards are quick, they make a lot of lazy passes that can be picked off (re: Arizona), most defenders never try though since they are afraid of being burned for an easy layup.

Key 5: Fatigue Since this is the last game, this should not be a problem, but Illinois has looked tired in this tournament and Carolina has shown no signs of fatigue.

Key 6: Pace Illinois has shown they can play and win every type of game tempo. Can North Carolina succeed in a slow paced half court game?

Prediction: Illinois. Why? because Illinois will control the tempo and turnovers will kill North Carolina.

Saturday, April 02, 2005

Initial thoughts on the North Carolina/Michigan St game

Will try to get full writeups later on.

  • looks like North Carolina spotted Michigan St. a half before playing
  • First Half: Michigan St. big on the offensive boards, too many North Carolina turnovers, Michigan St takes it to North Carolina on the inside
  • Second Half: North Carolina huge on the boards on both ends of the court, too many Michigan St turnovers, North Carolina just pounded the Spartans on the inside
  • Both halfs: Terrible shooting by Michigan St.
  • Nightmare scenerio for Big Ten fans, after going up 2-0 in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge II it is now 2-2 with North Carolina having a chance to sweep all 3 top Big 10 teams.
  • Michigan St. like Louisville should have had big leads at the end of the first half, I don't think a big lead by Michigan St. would have mattered the way North Carolina played in the 2nd half.

Initial thoughts from the Illinois/Louisville game

  • Louisville blew their chance in the first half.
  • Garcia, yuck!
  • Powell, oh my gosh!
  • Weber outcoached Pitino and made the right 2nd half adjustments
  • The Illinois defense was great in the second half
  • Louisville helped Illinois with terrible shots around the 5-6 minute mark which just let Illinois further bleed the clock
  • Would Powell have had this great of game if he missed the 3 at the buzzer that put Illinois up by 1 early in the 2nd half?
  • Louisville owned the boards the first 35 minutes, Illinois cleaned the boards when it counted during the last 5 minutes.
  • Packer was well behaved during the first game. Still annoying, but well behaved.

Proving Maryland Eastern Shore (last in RPI) is the best team in the country

Maryland Eastern Shore beat
MD Baltimore Country which beat
Maine who beat
Northeastern who had a nice win against
UMass who somehow beat
UConn who beat
Indiana who beat
Ohio St. who shocked
Illinios

Give the little guy with 2 wins a chance. Obviously they are an elite basketball school. Just a bored thought while waiting for the Final 4 to start.

Friday, April 01, 2005

North Carolina vs Michigan St. Preview

(1) North Carolina vs (5) Michigan St.
This is going to be an interesting game. The big question of this game is "Will North Carolina be able to run over the Spartans or will the Spartans be able to slow down the game and dominate the boards like they have all season long?"

Key 1: Pace. As said above North Carolina likes to run. It is the reason they beat Wisconsin. They score so many easy buckets in transition, that teams have to play great just to hang with the Tar Heels. North Carolina had trouble scoring against the set defense of Wisconsin (no problems in transition though). Michigan St. is able the run, but they will not be able to keep up the entire game at a fast pace. As long as the spurts of Carolina are short and few this will not be an advantage. Michigan St. does not have a chance if this is the case.

Key 2: Rebounding. Michigan St. is a great rebounding team. They usually have the advantage on the boards. For the season, North Carolina has averaged 4 more rebounds than the Spartans. This is a must for Michigan St. If they get beat at the boards it will be a long night for Spartan fans. If will mean the Tar Heals will have the speed and the size plus extra possessions as a bonus.

Key 3: Defense. After the Wisconsin game I am not sure what to think of the Tar Heels. Lets look at the times Wisconsin scored over 80 points this season. Western Carolina 89, UNC Greensboro 85, North Carolina 82. Must be a Carolina thing. Not good company to be in. On offense N. Carolina has a + 10 PPG advantage while Michigan St. has a +6 PPG advantage over the Tar Heels. Michigan St. has a huge advantage here.

Key 4: Shooting. Michigan St. must shoot well. They are not as good of a shooting team as North Carolina. If Michigan St. has a good night they will win (50%+). Plain and simple. You only need to be on one night to eliminate someone. Michigan St. needs to at least shoot in the mid 40s to stay competitive. Anything under 40% and they are done. North Carolina has a greater margin of error than the Spartans in this area.

Key 5: Turnovers. Michigan St. takes care of the ball well, North Carolina can play a little too fast and loose. Michigan St. has a huge advantage here. North Carolina can not get careless when they push the ball up the court.

Key 6: Free throws: Michigan St. is great from the line. North Carolina is OK. Is North Carolina going to shoot like they did in the ACC tourney where they lost or like they did against Wisconsin when they sealed the deal?

Prediction: Michigan St. Defense and turnovers are going to be the difference. North Carolina is not going to be able to run and they will lose a close one down the stretch.