Wednesday, January 19, 2005

Oklahoma St. vs S. Illinois

#2 Oklahoma St. vs #7 S. Illinois
S. Illinois will not be able to keep up with Oklahoma St. Oklahoma St. should also control the boards and the inside game. The big positive for Oklahoma St. is that they are playing a home game (sorry neutral site game) no it is a home game. S. Illinois has shown nothing all year to prove they can take down a top team from a power conference.

Prediction: Oklahoma St. (but nothing will surprise me anymore)

Louisville vs Georgia Tech Preview

#4 Louisville vs #5 Georgia Tech
This is the game of the day Sunday. Tough call, Georgia Tech is now a whopping 3-9 vs tourney teams. Louisville does not have a great scalp yet. Hard to size up these two teams against each other. This game will come down to tempo. If the pace is quick with lost of scoring, Louisville should win. If it is a grind it out half court game, Georgia Tech will have the advantage.

Prediction: Louisville (Pitino, who is not overrated will have his team ready with a great game plan)

Michigan St. vs Vermont

(5) Michigan St. vs (13) Vermont
24 Syracuse turnovers and Vermont only wins by 3 (on a shot almost from half court). While Michigan St. had problems with Old Dominion I don't expect them to have any problems with Vermont. If Tom Izzo looks at the Vermont tape he will notice that Vermont can not score against a team that plays a good zone defense, which Michigan St. can play. All Michigan St. needs to do is not turn over the ball and play good defense and they will win easily.

Prediction: Michigan St.

Duke vs Mississippi St Preview

#1 Duke vs #9 Mississippi St.
Mississippi St. looked much better than Duke in the first round game. Was this an aberration? I don't think so. MSU is a good team and Duke is a little overrated. Unfortunately the home game (I mean close neutral site) for Duke will be the difference. I think that Redick is due a great game and his play down the stretch will make the difference.

Prediction: Duke (barely, with Redick hitting a big 3 to save the day)

Florida vs Villanova Preview

#4 Florida vs #5 Villanova
Florida should have a second round bye. George Bush should have declared the Villanova/New Mexico game a federal disaster. The game should have been stopped early in the second half and both teams should have been declared losers. 20 turnovers and 28% shooting for Villanova in the last game. Villanova has been having trouble playing away from home all season and I expect that to continue against Florida. Florida has a tough first round matchup, but should rebound nicely to take down Villanova.

Prediction: Florida (Can Villanova play any worse than Friday?)

N. Carolina vs Iowa St. Preview

#1 N. Carolina vs #9 Iowa St.
Both teams looked good in their first round victories. N. Carolina has McCants and he will be the difference. N. Carolina will pound Iowa St. on the inside. (a theme for the Sunday games it seems) Iowa St. is good, but not in the same league as Carolina. For Iowa St. to win they need to force Carolina to take tough shots from the outside, not allow easy transistion baskets and lots of 3's. If they can get McCants in early foul trouble they will have a better chance of victory.

Prediction: N. Carolina (N. Carolina has the goods, for Iowa St. we are saying if, if, if, if. Too many ifs to win)

Wisconsin vs Bucknell Preview

#6 Wisconsin vs #14 Bucknell
This should be a cake walk for Wisconsin. The Wisconsin defense is terrific and unlike Kansas they will be smart enough to go inside for easy buckets, something Kansas did not do even though they had great success everytime they tried. Bucknell will get killed inside and will not get enough 3's to compensate.

Prediction: Wisconsin (No contest, Wisconsin will look at the Bucknell/Kansas tape, make the proper adujstments and spend the rest of the time laughing at Kansas for their poor game plan)

UConn vs NC State Preview

#2 UConn vs #10 NC State
Big East vs ACC take 2. This should be an easy game for UConn. They have the better athletes and the better inside game. NC State does not have the outside shooting to overcome UConn if they can't get the ball inside. As we saw in the Wake Forest game the better team does not always win. Can you imagine the Big East bragging rights if they win this game?

Prediction: UConn
Bonus Prediction: You don't hear the record of the Big East vs the ACC during this tourney.

Tuesday, January 18, 2005

Oklahoma vs Utah Preview

#3 Oklahoma vs #6 Utah
Oklahoma is going to be way too quick for Utah. Utah has Bogut, one of the best in the country, but does not have the weapons around him. Oklahoma will be able to contain him with their defense. Oklahoma has too many weapons inside and out for Utah to guard. This will be an easy victory for Oklahoma.

Prediction: Oklahoma

Kentucky vs Cincinnati

#2 Kentucky vs #7 Cincinnati
If you asked me Wednesday who would win this game I would have said Kentucky easily, but then Cincinatti finally played up to their potential. Cincinnati has the ability to punish Kentucky on the inside, especially on the boards. I think that Kentucky will just be too quick for Cincinatti. If the frontcourt of Kentucky pushes Cincinatti around they should be able to win. Teams that have pushed back Cincinnati have had good success with them. Iowa was not one of those teams. I think Kentucky will be.

Prediction: Kentucky

Wake Forest vs West Virgnia Preview

#2 Wake Forest vs #7 West Virginia
This is the 6th game in 11 days for West Virgnia. They looked tired against Creighton. Somehow they found the energy for a late game push that doomed Creighton. Conversly, Wake Forest looked good and crisp in the second half of their game. Unfortunately, this game will not come down to matchups it will come down to the fact that West Virginia is too tired to keep up with Wake Forest.

Prediction: Wake Forest

Gonzaga vs Texas Tech Preview

#3 Gonzaga vs #6 Texas Tech
We have the one man show (Morrison) in Gonzaga against Texas Tech who Forest Gump said is"like a box a chocolates, never know what you're gonna get." (I'm pretty sure that is who he was refering to) The good Texas Tech team showed up against UCLA. Which team will show up against Gonzaga? This is a tough matchup to predict just for that reason. Gonzaga did not look good in their first round matchup. This game screams upset, but I have to give the edge to the Zags. Texas Tech will not shoot 60% again and Gonzaga should be able to push Texas Tech around a bit and their points in the paint will be the difference. Gonzaga will play better perimeter defense frustrating Texas Tech into a lot of turnovers.

Prediction: Gonzaga (with a layout and foul in the last minute to go ahead for good)

Washington vs Pacific Preview

#1 Washington vs #8 Pacific
Both teams easily won their first round games (don't believe the garbage out there about Washington only winning by 11, the game wasn't close). Pacific is one of the best teams to come out of a low ranked conference in awhile. Washington is a very quick team and can score points in bunches. Pacific doesn't have the speed to match up and must get back on defense to avoid the easy buckets for Washington. If the shots aren't falling from the outside for Pacific it will be a short night for them, they don't have the inside game to bully around Washington.

Prediction: Washington

Monday, January 17, 2005

Washington vs Pacific

#1 Washington vs #8 Pacific
The only game between two teams that were in total control of their first round games during the first day. This should be a good matchup. Pacific has shown that they can keep up with the better teams. Unfortunately for Pacific they haven't faced a team as quick as Washington yet. Pacific will need a great shooting night to beat Washington since Washington scores a lot of easy baskets. If Pacific shoots well and makes Washington work for baskets they have a chance. But look what I am saying if, if ,if, and if all the ifs happen Pacific has a chance. Too many ifs for Pacific.

Prediction: Washington

UAB vs Arizona

#3 Arizona vs #11 UAB
Arizona had trouble with Utah St. while UAB destroyed, humiliated, and absolutely killed LSU. Don't read too much into it. Arizona's problem just had to do with the particluar matchup while UAB caught LSU on its worst night of the year. Arizona is a very talented team for which few teams outside of Washington have an answer for. The guards are going to run all over UAB.

Prediction: Arizona (The biggest mismatch of the 2nd round)

UW-Milwaukee vs Boston College

#12 UW-Milwaukee vs #4 Boston College
12 3's for UW-Milwaukee against Alabama. UWM is going to need at least that many to get past Boston College. Boston College looks like a ticked off team on a mission. I feel sorry for any team that gets in their way. I don't think that UWM has the defense to take down Boston College. With how bad Alabama played, UWM may not have beaten them without all the 3's that they drained.

Prediction: Boston College

Illinois vs Nevada Preview

#1 Illinois vs #9 Nevada
Illinois got a slight scare, but still won comfortably without exerting much effort. I still like Illinois to win since Nevada does not have the players to keep up with the Illinois guards nor the inside presence to punish Illinois down low. I think Nevada will hang with Illinois for 3/4 of the game, but eventually Illinois will wear Nevada down. I wouldn't want to be on the other end of whatever Weber was dishing out in the locker room after their first round game. Illinois will be much more focused for Nevada.

Prediction: Illinois (just over double digits)

Friday, January 14, 2005

Kentucky vs E. Kentucky Preview

#2 Kentucky vs #15 E. Kentucky
This has to be a dream match-up for E. Kentucky. Unforunately they will be no match for the Kentucky front court. E. Kentucky has shown they are not competative against the top teams. They will be no match for Kentucky either.

Prediction: Kentucky

Cincinnati vs Iowa Preview

#7 Cincinnati vs #10 Iowa
A game between two under achieving teams. I have held 3 principals since I have started writing.

  1. Boston College is not as good as Illinois or North Carolina (proven true)
  2. Memphis is not a tourney team. (proven true)
  3. Cincinnati is over rated.

I believe I will be 3 for 3. Cincinnati will not be able to handle the scrappy Iowa defense.

Prediction: Iowa

Oklahoma vs Niagara Preview

#3 Oklahoma vs #14 Niagara
This should be an entertaining game. There could be 30 or 40 points scored before the first intermission. Niagara should eventually wear down for an easy Oklahoma victory. This will be a high scoring game.

Prediction: Oklahoma
I wonder what is the more interesting number, the over/under on the game or the over/under on how many headlines will read "Niagara Falls" after Niagara loses.

Utah vs UTEP Preview

#6 Utah vs #11 UTEP
Neither team has proven itself against the good teams. Yes that includes Utah. Bogut is going to be the difference in this game. Utah should be able to shut down the high scoring UTEP defense enough to pull this out.

Prediction: Utah

Syracuse vs Vermont Preview

#4 Syracuse vs #13 Vermont
Everyone will be rooting for Vermont. I just don't see them winning. They are soft up the middle on defense. Warrick is going to run all over them. Vermont is going to need a stellar day shooting from the outside to have a chance.

Prediction: Syracuse (Warrick has at least 25 points)

Michigan St. vs Old Dominion Preview

#5 Michigan St. vs #12 Old Dominion
This should be a real fun game to watch. Both teams like to push the ball up and down the court. Both handle the ball well. The knock on Michigan St. is that they can't beat the ranked teams. Well, Old Dominion is not ranked so I guess Michigan St. will win. Well that, their incredible shooting, the fact that they are the quicker team. Michigan St. can't slack off because Old Dominion will beat them if they get lazy.

Prediction: Michigan St. (Close, but not too close.)
If you must have a 2nd #5 team upset this may be the one to pick.

Stanford vs Mississippi St. Preview

#8 Stanford vs #9 Mississippi St.
Both teams are not great ball handlers. The matchup is favorable for Stanford because Mississippi St. is not a quick team. Stanford should be able to handle the inside game of Mississippi St. I am not enamered with Stanford, but Mississippi St. has shown that they cannot beat the good competition.

Prediction: Stanford (in an ugly one)

Duke vs Delaware St. Preview

#1 Duke vs #16 Delaware St.
Against Tournament teams Duke's average margin of victory is +6 and Delaware St's is -24. That comes out to a difference of 30 points. Sounds about right for the margin of victory of this game.

Prediction: Duke

Kentucky Tournament Resume

Kentucky (26-5, 14-2, 1st SEC East, 1st SEC Overall)
Seed: #2 Austin Regional
How the got Here: At-large bid
Against the Field (6-4):
L @N. Carolina 78-91
W @Louisville 60-58
L Kansas 59-65
W LSU 89-58
W Florida 69-66
W Mississippi St. 94-78
W @Alabama 78-71
L @Florida 52-53
W (N)LSU 79-78
L (N)Florida 53-70

Tournament Games:
(2)Kentucky 72 - (15)E. Kentucky 64

The good: Good front court. Rolled through the SEC. 9-4 road/neutral record. Well coached. Good dribble penetration creates easy baskets or opportunities for open 3's.

The bad: Another team that can go long stretches without scoring. Doesn't have the defense to get away with this against the better teams. Had a stretch like this against Kansas early in the season. They would have been blown out if not for poor shooting from Kansas as well. The first half of that game was some of the worst shooting I have ever seen.

E. Kentucky Tournament Resume

E. Kentucky (22-8, 11-5, T-2nd Ohio Valley)
Seed: #15 Austin Regional
How they got here: Won Ohio Valley Conference tourney
Against the Field (0-2):
L @Florida 49-98
L @Louisville 63-78

The Good: Good shooting team

The Bad: Have trouble scoring on the inside.

Cincinnati Tournament Resume

Cincinnati (25-7, 12-4, T-2nd Conference USA)
Seed: #7 Austin Regional
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field (3-5):
W N. Iowa 76-70
L (N) Illinois 45-67
L Louisville 66-69
W Charlotte 80-58
L Wake Forest 70-74
L @Louisville 70-77
L @Charlotte 90-91
W UAB 72-69

Tournament Games:
(7) Cincinnati 76 - (10) Iowa 64

The good: Good defense, good inside game. Teams usually do not put up lots of points against the Bearcats.

The bad: Bob Higgins is just not a guy you can like. 3-5 against the tourney teams. Have trouble scoring against teams with a pressing defense.

Iowa Tournament Resume

Iowa (21-11, 7-9, 7th Big Ten)
Seed: #10 Austin Regional
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field (7-6):
W (N)Louisville 76-71
W (N)Texas 82-80
L (N)N. Carolina 92-106
W N. Iowa 76-73
W Iowa St. 70-63
W (N) Texas Tech 83-53
W Minnesota 66-60
L @Illinois 68-73
L Michigan St. 64-75
L @Wisconsin 69-72
L Illinois 65-75
L @Minnesota 57-64
W (N) Michigan St. 71-67

The good: What a great start. 7-6 against the field. Incredible record for a #10 seed.

The bad: 3-6 on the road. No depth. Other than beating Michigan St. in the tourney they have not showed much since losing Pierce.

Oklahoma Tournament Resume

Oklahoma (25-7, 12-4, T-1st Big 12)
Seed: #3 Austin Regional
How they got Here: At-large bid
Against the Field (7-6):
L (N)Washington 91-96
W (N)Minnesota 67-54
L (N)Duke 67-78
W UConn 77-65
W Texas 64-60
W Oklahoma St. 67-57
L @Iowa St. 66-74
L Texas Tech 81-88
L @Oklahoma St. 67-79
W Kansas 71-63
W @Texas 74-58
W @Texas Tech 74-54
L (N)Texas Tech 63-39

Tournament Games:
(3) Oklahoma 84 - (14) Niagara 67

The good: 10-6 Road/Neutral record. Good big men. Ended the regular season with 6 straight wins (3 against tourney teams). Fast and love to score in transition. Good rebounding and shooting team. Not many holes on this team.

The bad: Can go through long stretches without scoring. If they have a game like that late in the tournament it can doom them.

Niagara Tournamant Resume

Niagara (20-9, 13-5, T-1st Metro Atlantic Athletic)
Seed: #14 Austin Regional
How they got here: Won Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tourney
Against the Field (0-1):
L @Bucknell 74-76

The good: Averages over 85 points a game. Can give teams fits with their ability to score.

The bad: 0-3 vs Top 100. Don't play great defense. Athletic teams can easily keep up with them. 5-9 on the road.

UTEP Tournament Resume

UTEP (27-7, 14-4, 2nd WAC)
Seed: #11 Austin Regional
How they got here: Won WAC tourney
Against the Field (2-4):
W Delaware St. 83-50
L (N)S. Illinois 62-68
L Texas Tech 57-72
W @Nevada 83-80
L Nevada 60-62
L @Pacific 66-73

The good: Very good scoring team.

The bad: 2-4 against the field. Have trouble against teams that play good defense. Don't have enough prime time players to compete.

Utah Tournament Resume

Utah (27-5, 13-1, 1st Mountain West)
Seed: #6 Austin Regional
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field(2-5):
L Washington 71-78
L @Utah St. 45-71
L @Arizona 62-67
W LSU 69-55
W New Mexico 69-58
L @New Mexico 54-65
L (N)New Mexico 56-60

Tournament Games:
(6) Utah 60 - (11) UTEP 54

The good: 11-5 Road/Neutral record. Bogut, one of the best players in the country. Need to get Bogut lots of touches.

The bad: 2-5 against the field. Can easily be beaten if Bogut's touches are limited.

Vermont Tournament Resume

Vermont (24-6, 16-2, 1st American East)
Seed: #13 Austin Regional
How they got here: Won American East tourney
Against the Field (0-3):
L @Kansas 61-68
L North Carolina 65-93
L @ Nevada 64-74

The good: Tom Brennan's years of service. Good guard play. Played Kansas tough on the road.

The bad: No big wins. Are very susceptible to teams with a good big man. Past their guards, they don't have any good players.

Syracuse Tournament Resume

Syracuse (27-6, 11-5, T-3rd Big East)
Seed: #4 Austin Regional
How they got here: Won Big East tourney
Against the Field (5-6):
W (N)Mississippi St. 71-58
L Oklahoma St. 60-74
W W. Virginia 72-64
L @Pittsburgh 69-76
L UConn 66-74
W @Villanova 90-75
L Pittsburgh 64-68
L @Boston College 60-65
L @UConn 70-88
W (N)UConn 67-63
W (N)W. Virginia 68-59

The good: Hakim Warrick. Good inside game on offense.

The bad: 5-6 against the field. Poor outside shooting. For as good as they are on the inside they are not that good on the boards.

Old Dominion Tournament Resume

Old Dominion (28-5, 15-3, 1st Colonial Athletic Association)
Seed: #13 Austin Regional
How they got here: Won Colonial Athletic Association tourney
Against the Field (0-0):

The good:11-3 vs Top 100. Quick team. Takes care of ball well. Plays good defense.

The bad: Haven't played a Top 50 team yet. Doesn't have prime time players to compete with the elite teams. (They do have the players to pull an upset or two)

Michigan St. Tournament Resume

Michigan St. (22-6, 13-3, 2nd Big Ten)
Seed: #5 Austin Regional
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field (8-5):
L @Duke 74-81
L @George Washington 83-96
W Stanford 78-53
W Delaware St. 63-45
W UCLA 76-64
L @Wisconsin 59-62
W @Minnesota 69-55
W Oakland 92-75
L Illinois 68-81
W @Iowa 75-64
W Minnesota 81-62
W Wisconsin 77-64
L (N)Iowa 69-71

The good: Well coached. 8-2 last 10. +14.7 scoring margin. Great shooting team, especially being from a power conference. Quick and athletic. 8-5 against the field.

The bad: You've heard it before. Can't beat the ranked teams. That is lazy analysis, but for some reason it holds true. They beat the teams they should, but can't beat the really good ones. Can they get over the hump?

Mississippi St. Tournament Resume

Mississippi St. (22-10, 9-7, 3rd SEC West, 5th SEC Overall)
Seed: #9 Austin Regional
How they got here: At large bid
Against the Field (2-8):
L (N) Syracuse 58-71
W (N) St. Mary's 67-54
L (N) Arizona 64-68
L @Alabama 49-98
L @LSU 62-69
W Florida 71-57
L LSU 72-80
L @Kentucky 78-94
L Alabama 63-68
L (N) Florida 64-80

The good: They have a good inside game. Lawerence Roberts.

The bad: 1/1.1 assist/turnover ratio. 2-8 vs the field. (terrible) 5-5 the last 10 games. Can be prone to some awful ball handling. Got absolutely spanked by Alabama early in the season. How good can you be if you lose by 49?

Stanford Tournament Resume

Stanford (18-12, 11-7, T-3rd Pac-10)
Seed: #8 Austin Regional
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field(5-5):
L (N)Louisville 67-82
L @Michigan St. 53-78
W Montana 84-66
L @Washington 73-76
W Arizona 87-76
W @UCLA 75-64
L @Arizona 72-90
W UCLA 78-65
W Washington 77-67
L (N)Washington 63-66

The good: Beat Washington late in the season, and came close to repeating in the Pac-10 tournament. Decent record against the field.

The bad: 1/1.1 assist/turnover ratio. 5-7 on the road. 6-4 last 10 games. They are not the quickest team in the tournament. Average scoring margin of +2.1. (Not good) Not competitive with the tourney teams early in the season. They will be more competitive now, but they are not built for a real run this year.

Delaware St. Tournament Resume

Delaware St. (19-13, 14-4, 1st Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference)
Seed: #16 Austin Regional
How they got here: Won Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference tourney
Against the Field (0-3):
L @Illinois 67-87
L @UTEP 50-83
L @Michigan St. 45-63

The good: 8-2 in the last 10 games. 1st appearance to the Big Dance.

The bad: Terrible in the middle. Lost by an average of 24 points against the tournament bound teams. 0-5 vs Top 100 RPI. 6-11 on the road.

Duke Tournament Resume

Duke (25-5, 11-5, 3rd ACC)
Seed: #1 Austin
How they got here: Won the ACC Conference tourney
Against the Field (9-2):
W Michigan St. 81-74
W (N) Oklahoma 78-67
W @NC State 86-74
L @Wake Forest 89-92
W Georgia Tech 82-65
W N. Carolina 71-70
W Wake Forest 102-92
W @Georgia Tech 60-56
L @N. Carolina 73-75
W (N)NC State 76-69
W (N)Georgia Tech 69-64

The good: This was supposed to be a down year for Duke. Nice down year. Obviously Redick is the man. 15-4 vs Top 100. 9-2 vs tourney teams. 5-0 at neutral sites. +14.0 scoring average. Redick on the line shooting free throws at the end of the game.

The bad: Obviously it is their depth. You have to think their depth will start to hurt this team in the second week of the tournament. Can Duke overcome this again or will it finally take its toll? Another item that worries me is Redick hogging the ball. Obviously you want the ball in his hand. I just wish when it left his hand it would end up leaving as a pass instead of some of those ridiculous shots he puts up at times (2.8 assists per game). They have to stay out of foul trouble. You can point to the Maryland game for that, but that was a little crazy as far as the refs went. There are a lot of other examples where fouls almost killed them or did doom them to a loss. If they are in foul trouble their final four dreams will be in real trouble.

UConn vs Central Florida Preview

#2 UConn vs #15 Central Florida
While Central Florida is deep they don't have the talent to compete. UConn will be way too much on the inside and Central Florida will have trouble getting the shots they need to win. Central Florida will have to shoot 50% + to have a chance. That will be a problem since most of those shots will come from the perimeter.

Prediction: UConn

Charlotte vs NC State Preview

#7 Charlotte vs #10 NC State
NC State should have a field day with the Charlotte defense. The NC State defense is much better. The NC State record is deceiving. More than have of the losses come against teams sitting on the #1 or #2 lines.

Prediction: NC State (If they are healthy they win)

Kansas vs Bucknell Preview

#3 Kansas vs #14 Bucknell
This game is just screaming out saying "Pick me as an upset". Kansas is so by far the better team. Bucknell does have an impressive win at Pittsburgh, but got blown out at Villanova. Come to think of it Kansas got blown out at Villanova as well (and they were playing good at the time).

Prediction: Kansas (barely)
I think Kansas wins, but they have a lot of trouble with Bucknell. At around the 6-8 minute mark in the second half Bucknell starts to wear down and then Kansas will assert itself. I wouldn't be surprise though if Kansas lost. I'll let braver people than myself pick that upset.

Wisconsin vs N. Iowa Preview

#6 Wisconsin vs #11 N. Iowa
I good defensive and solid inside team (Wisconsin) against a good shooting and passing team (N. Iowa). Both are not the best away from home.

Prediction: Wisconsin
You would think that Wisconsin is a prime candidate for an upset with their road record, but their play in the Big 10 tourney coupled with N. Iowa's play in the MVC tourney leads me to believe that Wisconsin has the upper hand. N. Iowa isn't quick enough to cause Wisconsin problems and Wisconsin should be the more physical team on the inside. The inside game is what will doom N. Iowa.

Florida vs Ohio Preview

#4 Florida vs #13 Ohio
There are two competing school of thoughts on this game. One, Florida is on a roll and cannot lose. Two, no matter how good Florida looks they always have trouble in the opening rounds, especially the 1st round.

Prediction: Florida
Florida has all the weapons and Ohio has few. If Ohio goes zone Florida will shoot the 3's. If Ohio goes man-to-man they will get crushed on the inside. You have to think that this is the year that Florida gets the monkey off of their back. This could be a special season like 2000.

Villanova vs New Mexico Preview

#5 Villanova vs #12 New Mexico
This is the best draw New Mexico could have hoped for because Villanova is better know for it guard play instead of its big men. It is tough to gauge how New Mexico will stand up because they have not played good competition.

Prediction: Villanova (comfortably)
Judging from the 18 point loss to Wake Forest at home you have to figure that New Mexico just can't play with the better teams. Look elsewhere for your #12 upset. (Albuquerque perhaps?)

Minnesota vs Iowa St. Preview

#8 Minnesota vs #9 Iowa St.
This will most likely be the most ugly game of the entire tournament. Minnesota likes to play ugly basketball and Iowa St. is back to playing the ugly basketball that they started the season with. Neither team can rebound, neither team is a great shooting team, neither team is great on the inside.

Prediction: Minnesota
Minnesota likes it ugly. That is why they get the nod.

N. Carolina vs Play-in winner Preview

#1 N. Carolina vs #16 Oakland/Alabama A&M
North Carolina has not looked sharp lately, especially against Clemson. Fortunately for North Carolina, playing the way they did against Clemson is still good enough for a 20 point plus win against the play-in winner. There is no contest here.

Prediction: North Carolina

Central Florida Tournament Resume

Central Florida (24-8, 13-7, T-1st Atlantic Sun)
Seed: #15 Syracuse Regional
How they got here: Won Atlantic Sun Conference tourney
Against the Field (1-0):
W Utah St. 55-52

The good:I believe they are the only other team besides Illinois not to lose to a tourney team. (of those teams who played a tourney team). 4-0 on neutral courts. They have a deep bench. They have a balanced attack.

The bad: Only 1 Top 100 game. (Utah St.) Haven't played the competition to get them ready for the NCAA tourney.

UConn Tournament Resume

UConn (22-7, 13-3, T-1st Big East)
Seed: #2 Syracuse Regional
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field (4-5):
L Boston College 70-75
L @Oklahoma 65-77
L Pittsburgh 66-76
W @W. Virginia 68-58
W Villanova 81-76
W @Syracuse 74-66
L N. Carolina 70-77
W @Pittsburgh 73-64
L (N) Syracuse 63-67

The good: 8-2 in the last 10 games. Nice strong finish. Came out of nowhere to tie for a Big East regular season crown. Marcus Williams. UConn is nowhere without him.

The bad: Is it too much to ask for a #2 seed to have a winning record against the field. They play like a young team. They make too many mistakes to win 4 straight games and make it to the final 4.

NC State Tournament Resume

NC State (19-13, 7-9, T-6th ACC)
Seed: #10 Syracuse Regional
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field(4-8):
W LA-Lafayette 78-72
L @Washington 64-68
L W. Virginia 69-82
L Duke 74-86
W Georgia Tech 76-68
L @N. Carolina 71-95
L @Wake Forest 75-86
W @Georgia Tech 53-51
L N. Carolina 71-81
L Wake Forest 53-55
W (N) Wake Forest 81-65
L (N) Duke 69-76

The good: Fought through injuries to have a respectable season. Run a good offensive set. Good defensively when they stop the transition game of opponents. Seems to be able to handle the middle of the road teams.

The bad: 4-8 vs the Top 50. 5-6 on the road. Can't beat the big boys. Has trouble when teams can use their speed against them.

Charlotte Tournament Resume

Charlotte (21-7, 12-4, T-2nd Conference USA)
Seed: #7 Syracuse Regional
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field(3-3):
W LA-Lafayette 84-68
L Alabama 101-102
W @UAB 91-85
L @Cincinnati 58-80
W Cincinnati 91-90
L @Louisville 82-94

The good: 9-3 vs Top 100. Scores a lot of points.

The bad: They give up a lot of points. One of the worst defenses in the tourney.

Bucknell Tournament Resume

Bucknell (22-9, 10-4, 2nd Patriot League)
Seed: #14 Syracuse Regional
How they got here: Won Patriot League Conference tourney
Against the Field (2-3):
L @Iowa St. 55-62
L @Penn 52-65
W Niagara 76-74
W @Pittsburgh 69-66
L @Villanova 51-89

The good: 5-4 vs Top 100. Big win @Pittsburgh shows they can play.

The bad: Not enough quality players to make a run at much of anything.

Kansas Tournament Resume

Kansas (23-6, 12-4, T-1st Big 12)
Seed: #3 Syracuse Regional
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field (10-5):
W Vermont 68-61
W Nevada 85-52
W Pacific 81-70
W LA-LaFayette 96-51
W UW-Milwaukee 73-62
W Georgia Tech 70-68
W @Kentucky 65-59
W @Iowa St. 71-66
L @Villanova 62-83
W Texas 90-65
L @Texas Tech 79-80
L Iowa St. 61-63
L @Oklahoma 63-71
W Oklahoma St. 81-79
L (N) Oklahoma St. 75-78

The good: They hit the jackpot with all their mid and low major schools turning out to have great years. That is why they are still #1 in the RPI. Have played more tourney teams than any other school. Simien is a big reason why Kansas any any hope left.

The bad: They are not playing the same level of basketball that they were earlier in the season. A lot of those losses were close, but that loss @Missouri at the end of the season could be very telling. They are 1-4 in their last 5 road games. You know what they say about teams that are not playing good going into the tourney. (They don't last long)

N. Iowa Tournament Resume

Northern Iowa(21-10, 11-7, T-3rd Missouri Valley Conference)
Seed: #11 Syracuse
How they got here: Beat Wichita St. to end the season (I mean at-large bid - Wichita St.'s until they fell apart)
Against the Field (3-6):
L @Cincinnati 70-76
W Iowa St. 99-82
L @Iowa 73-76
L Creighton 66-67
L Wichita St. 57-65
W S. Illinois 67-61
L @Creighton 82-83
L @S. Illinois 69-76
W @Wichita St. 67-66

The good: How many mid-majors get an at-large bid after losing in the first round of their tourney? Some would say this is a good step in the right direction. I'm not sure if I agree. They are a good shooting team that will force teams to go man to man against them.

The bad: Finished behind Wichita St. in conference and in the conference tourney and still got the bid. They are not good inside. 2-5 vs Top 50. 6-7 Road/Neutral record.

Wisconsin Tournament Resume

Wisconsin (22-8, 11-5, 3rd Big 10)
Seed: #6 Syracuse
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field (7-6):
W Penn 77-44
W UW-Milwaukee 66-37
W Alabama 76-62
L @Indiana 61-74
W Michigan St. 62-59
L Illinois 65-75
L @Minnesota 50-60
W Iowa 72-69
L @Illinois 59-70
L @Michigan St. 64-77
W Indiana 62-60
W (N)Iowa 59-56
L (N) Illinois 43-54

The good: The defense obviously. Not many Wisconsin games see scores in the 70s or higher. Wilkinson and Tucker. If the game is at Wisconsin's pace they win.

The bad: The are a little slow. Have trouble with teams that move the ball around the perimeter well. They also have trouble with teams that are quick in transition. They are a road dog. 5-6 on the road. No big road wins. If the game is at a fast pace, they lose. Can't play outside their style like the top teams can.

Ohio Tournament Resume

Ohio (21-10, 11-7, T-2nd Mid-American)
Seed: #13 Syracuse Regional
How they got here: Won Mid-American Conference tourney
Against the Field (0-0):

The good: 5-1 vs the Top 50 RPI.

The bad: 2-4 vs teams ranked 100-200 RPI. (Not sure what that means). 4-9 on the road. Will lose to any team that shoot in the mid-40% range or better. Young team.

Florida Tournament Resume

Florida (23-7, 12-4, 2nd SEC East, T-2nd SEC Overall)
Seed: #4 Syracuse
How they got here: Won SEC Conference tourney
Against the Field (5-4):
L Louisville 70-74
L @Mississippi St. 57-71
W Alabama 85-54
L @Kentucky 66-69
L @LSU 73-77
W Kentucky 53-52
W (N) Mississippi St. 80-64
W (N) Alabama 68-62
W (N) Kentucky

The good: Florida is on a roll. Probably one of the hotest teams in the country right now. Those last 4 wins against the field was Florida's last 4 games. Have lots of different ways to win.

The bad: They are one of the worst first round teams in recent history. Even if they win, they just squeak by. Have mental lapses when they are prone to taking stupid shots. (Hasn't been a problem recently, we shall see if that holds)

New Mexico Tournament Resume

New Mexico (26-6, 10-4, 2nd Mountain West)
Seed: #12 Syracuse
How they got here: At large bid
Against the Field (2-2):
L Wake Forest 64-81
L @Utah 58-69
W Utah 65-54
W (N)Utah 60-56

The good: 9-1 in the last 10. 4-3 against the Top 100. Have proven they can beat Utah.

The bad: They haven't proven that they can beat another quality tournament team. Their non-conference schedule was horrendously easy. They will get killed against a team with any size or talent in the middle.

Villanova Tournament Resume

Villanova (22-7, 11-5, T-3rd Big East)
Seed: #5 Syracuse Regional
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field (7-4):
W Penn 76-64
W West Virginia 84-46
L @Boston College 66-67
W Kansas 83-62
L @UConn 76-81
L Syracuse 75-90
W Bucknell 89-51
W Pittsburgh 80-72
W Boston College 76-70
W (N)Pittsburgh 67-58
L (N) W. Virginia 76-78

The good: Absolutely killed West Virginia and Kansas on their home court. Good guard play. Good record against the field.

The bad: Suspect on the inside. Lack of quality wins away from home. The win over Pitt on a neutral court was a good first step for this team. Tough potential second round match up against a hot Florida team.

Iowa St. Tournament Resume

Iowa St. (18-11, 9-7, T-5th Big 12)
Seed: #9 Syracuse
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field (5-5):
W Bucknell 62-55
L @N. Iowa 82-99
L @Iowa 63-70
L Kansas 66-71
L @Oklahoma St. 73-83
W Oklahoma 74-66
W @Texas 92-80
W Texas Tech 81-68
W @Kansas 63-61
L (N) Texas Tech 56-64

The good: Decent record against the field. Had a nice mid season run after starting out terrible.

The bad: They look tired after their mid season run. Only have a 4-7 road record. Can't rebound, Can't play defense.

Minnesota Tournament Resume

Minnesota (21-10, 10-6, T-5th Big 10)
Seed: 8th Syracuse
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field (2-7):
L (N) Alabama 72-78
L (N) Oklahoma 54-67
L @Iowa 60-66
L Michigan St. 55-69
L @Illinois 66-89
W Wisconsin 60-50
L @Michigan St. 62-81
W Iowa 65-57
L (N) Illinois 56-64

The good: They play a tough defense that frustrates opponents. They like to turn the game into a sloppy game that keeps the good opponents close which gives Minnesota a chance to win at the end of the game.

The bad: Not a good rebounding team. Can't handle a fast paced game. Terrible record against the field. Lost to Florida St. at home (the ACC's worst). Exhibit A as to why people are saying the Big 10 is having a down year.

Alabama A&M Tournament Resume

Alabama A&M (18-13, 12-6, 1st Southern Athletic Conference)
Seed: #16 Syracuse Play-in game
How they got here: Won Southern Athletic Conference tourney
Against the Field (0-1):
L @UAB 68-100

The good: Won both the regular season and conference tourney .

The bad: 0-5 vs the Top 200. Got blown out by UAB. Probably the worst team in the field of 65. They make Oakland look good.

Oakland Tournament Resume

Oakland (12-18, 7-9, T-5th Mid-continent)
Seed: #16 Syracuse Play-in
How they got here: A Technicality (Won Mid-Continent Conference tourney)
Against the Field (0-2):
L @Illinois 54-85
L @Michigan St. 75-92

The good: Got in the NCAA tourney. Marshall and Scott their star guard and forward.

The bad: They don't deserve to be in. Sure they won their conference tourney. I've heard the arguments that they played a tough non-conference schedule and that is why they have a losing record. True, they played a tough non-conference schedule, but they also didn't have a winning record in conference. Very disappointing. Other than Marshall and Scott they have no weapons.

North Carolina Tournament Resume

North Carolina (27-4, 14-2, 1st ACC)
Seed: #1 Syracuse
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the field (8-3):
W (N)Iowa 106-92
W Kentucky 91-78
W Vermont 93-65
W Georgia Tech 91-69
L @Wake Forest 82-95
W NC State 95-71
L @Duke 70-71
W @UConn 77-70
W @NC State 81-71
W Duke 75-73
L (N) Georgia Tech

The good: 15-3 vs Top 100 RPI, 8-3 vs the field. McCants, Williams, Williams, the best top 6 in basketball. Great inside game, great with dribble penetration, good passing team, good shooting team. Not many holes.

The bad: Looked very shaky the last 3 games. Needed comeback against Clemson & a late melt down by Duke to come back and beat them. Could have easily been 0-3 the last 3 games or 0-2 since they never would have got to Georgia Tech if Clemson beat them. They are clearly the 2nd best team in the country right now, but they should be head and shoulders above everyone. If they play like they did against the last 3 games, especially against Clemson they will not get very far.

Wake Forest vs Chattanooga Preview

#2 Wake Forest vs #15 Chattanooga
No summary really needed here. Chattanooga got blown out against the only tourney team they played (Creighton). Imagine on how bad Wake Forest will beat them up considering they are probably in a really foul mood and much better than Creighton.

Prediction: Wake Forest (Duh)

West Virginia vs Creighton Preview

#7 West Virginia vs #10 Creighton
Creighton has not been tested outside of conference yet. West Virginia is on a roll. They have to be tired from 4 straight Big East tourney games, but this is not the game where the fatigue will show.

Prediction: West Virginia
Creighton is not the best defensive team and that will be the difference against a West Virginia team that has one of the best play books in the country.

Gonzaga vs Winthrop Preview

#3 Gonzaga vs #14 Winthrop
Winthrop gets its first test against a quality opponent. They will fail miserably. Lost to their only "quality" opponent (Oregon). That just about sums things up.

Prediction: Gonzaga (Easily)

Texas Tech vs UCLA Preview

#6 Texas Tech vs #11 UCLA
I thought Texas Tech would be a prime candidate for an upset considering the slide their team has been in lately. Then I looked at what UCLA has been doing and other than the win @Notre Dame and a fluke win against Washington they have not been competative against the quality teams. I think the same team in the loss against Oregon St. in the Pac 10 tourney is the UCLA team that will show up in the NCAA tourney as well.

Prediction: Texas Tech (by double digits)

Louisville vs LA-LaFayette Preview

#4 Louisville vs #13 LA-LaFayette
Both teams like to run up and down the court. LA-LaFayette has played some quality games . . . and gotten blown out in almost all of them. Louisville will be their best competition yet. I don't expect the result to be any different than before. The Louisville players will put up big numbers to make a statement on what they thought about their seed.

Prediction: Louisville

Georgia Tech vs George Washington

#5 Georgia Tech vs #12 George Washington
This should be a good match-up. Georgia Tech is coming off an impressive ACC tourney run while George Washington finished up a terrific Athletic 10 run to get the bid many thought they deserved anyways. I expect this will be a game with many turnovers as both teams can get careless with the ball at times.

Prediction: George Washington
Everybody says that this is not the game that a 12 seed will upset a 5 seed. I disagree. George Washington is playing well except for the late season loss to St. Joe's. Georgia Tech has had trouble against the good competition. Click on their team link above for more info. I will give you a hint though (2-9 against tourney teams).

Pacific vs Pittsburgh Preview

#8 Pacific vs #9 Pittsburgh
This can be a good game. The type of defense that Pitt plays is exactly the type of defense that Pacific has trouble with. Pacific has shown that it can beat the middle of the road teams, so they have a chance to win.

Prediction: Pacific
Teams that are playing bad going into the tourney usually don't turn things around come tournament time. I think Pitt comes out flat and Pacific has a decent lead by half time. If Pitt comes to play they have a chance, but I think Pacific will win because they will want it more.

Washingon vs Montana Preview

#1 Washington vs #16 Montana
No match here. Montana has not played the top competition good and will not be able to keep up with Washington's speed.

Prediction: Washington (Big)

Chattanooga Tournament Resume

Chattanooga (20-10, 10-6, 1st Southern North, T-2nd Southern overall)
Seed: #15 Albuquerque
How they got here: Won Southern Conference tourney
Against the Field (0-1):
L @Creighton 68-100

The good: Are good inside.

The bad: If they don't get good play inside, they are toast. 0-3 vs RPI Top 100. 7-7 Road/Neutral record. Got blown out against the only tourney team they played and Creighton isn't exactly a powerhouse.

Wake Forest Tournament Resume

Wake Forest (27-5, 13-3, 2nd ACC)
Seed: #2 Albuquerque
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the field (10-3):
W George Washington 97-76
W (N)Arizona 63-60
L @Illinois 73-91
W Texas 89-88
W @New Mexico 81-64
W N. Carolina 95-82
W @Cincinnati 74-70
L @Georgia Tech 101-102
W Duke 92-89
W NC State 86-75
L @Duke 92-102
W Georgia Tech 98-91
W @NC State 55-53
L (N)NC State 65-81

Tournament Games:
(2) Wake Forest 70 - (15) UT-Chatanooga 54

The good: Have some of the best guard play outside of Illinois. 10-3 vs the field and they played quality competition. Probably the best team in the ACC. 10-5 Road/Neutral games.

The bad: They have to travel all over the country in this tourney. Wake Forest can get together with Lute Olson and complain about the various biases in college basketball. Guarantee you that there are not many Wake Forest fans in Albuquerque. The fans there would like nothing better than to cheer against an ACC team. They have trouble putting away teams. The performance without Chris Paul should send shivers up the spines of Wake Forest fans. He will be available for the NCAA tourney, but what happens if he fouls out late?

Creighton Tournament Resume

Creighton (23-10, 11-7, T-3rd Missouri Valley Conference)
Seed: #10 Albuquerque
How they got here: Won Missouri Valley Conference tourney
Against the Field (3-2):
W Chattanooga 100-68
L S. Illinois 63-69
W @N. Iowa 67-66
W N. Iowa 83-82
L @S. Illinois 67-71

The good: 9-1 in last 10 games. 5-2 vs the Top 50. 5-0 on neutral courts.

The bad: non-conference schedule was not very difficult. Could not beat S. Illinois. Not the best defensive team around.

West Virginia Tournament Resume

West Virginia (22-10, 8-8, T-7th Big East)
Seed: 7th Albuquerque
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field (7-7):
W @LSU 84-69
W George Washington 71-65
W @NC State 82-69
L @Villanova 46-84
L Boston College 53-73
L Notre Dame 57-70
L @Syracuse 64-72
L UConn 58-68
L @Boston College 50-62
W Pittsburgh 83-78
W @Pittsburgh 70-66
W (N)Boston College 78-72
W (N)Villanova 78-76
L (N)Syracuse 59-68

Tournament Games:
(10) W. Virginia 63 - (7) Creighton 61

The good: 7-7 record against the field is not bad. Finished the season 9-3. 9-6 Road/Neutral record. Play a very good deliberate offense. Usually takes good shots and gets good looks. Great at taking care of the ball and sharing it. 1.4/1 assist/turnover ratio.

The bad: They are terrible on the inside. Which is the real West Virginia team. The one that started 10-0, the one that then went 1-6 or the one that finished 10-4? 4 straight games in the Big East tourney. Will that take a toll on them if they make the second round against a fresher team?

Winthrop Tournament Resume

Winthrop (27-5, 15-1, 1st Big South)
Seed: #14 Albuquerque
How they got here: Won Big South Conference tourney
Against the field (0-0):

The good: 11-5 Road/Neutral record, 10-0 last 10 games. Solid team doesn't make a lot of mistakes.

The bad: Untested. Up against a Gonzaga team no one roots against in the 1st round. Has only played 1 top 100 RPI team (Oregon) and has lost that game. No go to guy.

Gonzaga Tournament Resume

Gonzaga (26-4, 12-2, 1st West Coast Conference)
Seed: #3 Albuquerque
How they got here: Won West Coast Conference tourney
Against the Field (6-2):
W Montana 78-62
L (N) Illinois 72-89
W Washington 99-87
W (N) Georgia Tech 85-73
W @Oklahoma St. 78-75
L @St. Mary's 81-89
W St. Mary's 68-63
W (N) St. Mary's 80-67

Tournament Games:
(3) Gonzaga 74 - (14) Winthrop 64

The good: 2-1 vs teams seeded #1 and #2. Great shooting team (over 50%). Played one of the toughest non-conference schedules of any tourney team. 5-2 vs Top 50 RPI. 12-4 Road/Neutral record. 10-0 last 10 games.

The bad: Depth. Do they have the depth to make a deep tourney run? Looked tired after brutal non-conference schedule which resulted in a 3-2 conference start. Eventually won the next 11 straight games. Game against Illini looking more like a fluke, but it makes you wonder if the Zags can overcome a poor shooting night and if they can win against a defense that defends the perimeter well.

UCLA Tournament Resume

UCLA (18-10, 11-7, T-3rd Pac 10)
Seed: #11 Albuquerque
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field (1-7):
L Boston College 64-74
L @Michigan St. 64-76
W Washington 95-86
L @Arizona 73-76
L Stanford 64-75
L @Washington 70-82
L Arizona 73-83
L @Stanford 65-78

The good: The big road win at Notre Dame. Obviously I would be writing about Notre Dame now if the result was different. Dijon Thompson (18.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG)

The bad: 1-7 vs tourney teams (Yuck!). 6-7 Road/Neutral record. +2.6 average margin of victory (low MOV never a good sign) Young team without a lot of experience.

Texas Tech Tournament Resume

Texas Tech (21-10, 10-6, 4th Big 12)
Seed: 6th Albuquerque
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field (6-7):
W @UTEP 72-57
L (N) Iowa 53-83
L Oklahoma St. 66-76
L @Texas 73-80
W @Oklahoma 88-81
L @Iowa St. 68-81
W Kansas 80-79
L @Oklahoma St. 56-85
W Texas 69-65
L Oklahoma 54-74
W (N) Iowa St. 64-56
W (N) Oklahoma 69-63
L (N) Oklahoma St. 68-72

Tournament Games:
(6) Texas Tech 78 - (11) UCLA 66

The good: Has played a lot of quality competition. Good turnover/assist ratio of 1.3. Good offensively when they open up the floor. Always entertaining to listen to a Bobby Knight press conference.

The bad: 5-5 in the last 10 games. Not a good defensive team. 9-10 vs the Top 10. Look at some of the losses against tourney teams. (20, 19, 13, 30 points) Not a good rebounding team either.

LA-LaFayette Tournament Resume

LA-LaFayette (20-10, 11-4, 2nd Sun Belt West, 2nd Sun Belt Overall)
Seed: #13 Albuquerque
How they got here: Won Sun Belt Conference tourney
Against the Field (1-4):
L @LSU 69-83
L @Charlotte 68-84
L @Kansas 51-96
L @NC State 72-78
W S. Illinois 63-61

The good: Have played some good quality non conference games. Has a nice win over S. Illinois. Likes to play fast and loose. Can score points in bunches.

The bad: Lost all games against a major conference. Got beat badly in most of them (granted they were all road games) 4-8 vs Top 100. 5-8 Road record. Has shown that they cannot hang with the big boys. Drew a #2 or #3 seed in the first round (Louisville) when it says they are facing a #4 seed.

Louisville Tournament Resume

Louisville (29-4, 14-2, 1st Conference USA)
Seed: #4 Albuquerque (Who did Pitino tick off in the committee to get seeded this low?)
How they got here: Won the Conference USA tourney
Against the Field (8-2):
L (N)Iowa 71-76
W (N) Stanford 82-67
W @Florida 74-70
L Kentucky 58-60
W E. Kentucky 78-63
W @Cincinnati 69-66
W Cincinnati 77-70
W @UAB 77-73
W Charlotte 94-82
W (N) UAB 74-67

The good: They are a good transition scoring team. They can go about 8 deep. 12-2 Road/Neutral record. Average scoring margin of +17.9. 12-3 vs the Top 100. 9-1 in the last 10 games.

The bad: The way they got shafted in their seeding. They are not a good inside team and have trouble rebounding the ball.

George Washington Tournament Resume

George Washington (22-7, 11-5, 1st Atlantic 10 West, T-2nd Atlantic 10 overall)
Seed: #12 Albuquerque
How they got here: Won A-10 tourney.
Against the Field (1-2):
L @Wake Forest 76-97
W (N) Michigan St. 96-83
L @ W. Virginia 65-71

The good: 12-4 Road/Neutral record. +10.3 Margin of victory. 8-2 over the last 10. One of the better shooting teams in the country.

The bad: Not a good defensive team. 4 losses against sub 100 RPI teams. Prone to playing careless basketball at times.

*Special note: ESPN says that they had a close game against Wake Forest. They lost by 21. How does that work?

Georgia Tech Tournament Resume

Georgia Tech (19-11, 8-8, T-4th ACC)
Seed: #5 Albuquerque
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field (2-9):
L (N) Gonzaga 73-85
L @Kansas 68-70
L @N. Carolina 69-91
L @NC State 68-76
W Wake Forest 102-101
L @Duke 65-82
L NC State 51-53
L Duke 56-60
L @Wake Forest 91-98
W (N) N. Carolina 78-75
L (N) Duke

The good: Played good competition throughout the year. B.J. Elder. Good defense. Different team with B.J. Let's see if that translates into better quality wins.

The bad: 6-10 vs Top 100. 6-8 Road/Neutral record. Only 6-4 in the last 10 games. 2-9 vs the field. That last number is absolutely terrible. I cannot belive they get a 5 seed with that kind of record against tourney teams. They played tough teams, fine. Shouldn't you have to win a few more to get such a high seed? I would be skeptical of this team getting very far with the numbers mentioned above. Just think if they did blow that lead against North Carolina, where does that leave Georgia Tech? 8, 9, 10 seed? Can't believe one win is worth about 3-5 seed positions. Would have a 1-10 record vs the field without the NC win.

Pittsburgh Tournament Resume

Pittsburgh (20-8, 10-6, 5th Big East)
Seed: #9 Albuquerque
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field (5-5):
W @UConn 76-66
W Syracuse 76-69
L @W. Virginia 78-83
W @Syracuse 68-64
L @Villanova 72-80
L W. Virginia 66-70
L UConn 64-73
W @Boston College 72-50
W @Notre Dame 85-77
L Villanova 58-67

The good: 7-4 Road/Neutral record. Can play tough defense. Do just enough to win and get by. Late season road wins at Boston College and Notre Dame when their tourney chances were in a tailspin shows that Pittsburgh can step up when they need to.

The bad: They do just enough to win and get by. This usually translates to poor tourney teams. Terrible non-conference schedule. Didn't have a Top 50 RPI game until January. Can they play outside the Big East? Don't tell me they can. You haven't seen this team try yet. They may, but that is just a guess. 5-5 in their last 10 games. Never a good sign.

Pacific Tournament Resume

Pacific (26-3, 18-0, 1st Big West)
Seed: #8 Albuquerque
How they got here: Won Big West Tournament
Against the Field (4-2):
L @Kansas 70-81
W @Nevada 72-69
W Utah St. 73-66
W @Utah St. 64-63
W UTEP 73-66
L (N)Utah St. 52-65

Tournament Games:
(8) Pacific 79 - (9) Pittsburgh 71

The good: 2nd best winning percentage in the country behind Illinois. 14-2 Road/Neutral record. 4-2 vs RPI Top 50. 9-1 in the last 10 games. Played Kansas tough at Kansas early in the season. Terrific shooting team at over 50%. Took down both mid major tourney teams they faced.

The bad: Can get into trouble against a tough pressing defense. Will not be able to overcome a bad shooting night. Softer inside than their big men's numbers would indicate.

Montana Tournament Resume

Montana (18-12, 9-5, T-2nd Big Sky)
Seed: #16 Albuquerque
How they got here: Won Big Sky tourney
Against the Field (0-2):
L @Gonzaga 62-78
L @Stanford 66-84

The good: They have played a decent non-conference schedule for a #16 seed. A team like Washington won't be a shock for this team.

The bad: They have not played well against the good teams. 0-5 vs the Top 100 RPI. Scoring Margin +.3 (Very bad). 5-10 on the road. No inside game.

Washington Tournament Resume

Washington (28-5, 14-4, 2nd Pac-10)
Seed: #1 Albuquerque
How they got here: Won Pac 10 tourney
Against the Field (9-4):
W (N)Utah 78-71
W (N)Oklahoma 96-91
W (N)Alabama 79-76
W NC State 68-64
L @Gonzaga 87-99
W Stanford 76-73
L @UCLA 86-95
L @Arizona 82-91
W UCLA 82-70
W Arizona 93-85
L @Stanford 67-77
W (N)Stanford 66-63
W (N)Arizona

Tournament Games:
(1) Washington 88 - (16) Montana 77

The good: 17-4 against the Top 100 RPI, 9-4 against the field. They are a fast explosive team well built for the NCAA tourney. Look at all the wins at the neutral sites (against solid tourney teams as well). Very good shooting team. Averages over 86 points per game. Margin of victory +12.8. 1.3/1 assist/turnover ratio. Best 3 games to start the season of any team. What's not to like?

The bad: Not the best road team, especially for a #1 seed (6-5). If the crowd starts to smell an upset they will turn against the Huskies in a hurry (and they always do against a #1 seed) and it will seem like a road game instead of a neutral site game. Not the best team defensively. Tough bracket. Probably have the hardest sweet 16 draw of all the #1's.

Oklahoma St. vs SE Louisiana Preview

#2 Oklahoma St. vs #15 SE Louisiana
This is an easy match-up for Oklahoma St. Oklahoma St. likes to score a lot. SE Louisiana can't score. There is no way that SE Louisiana can put up the amount of points to be competitive, even if they play solid defense. They are also not quick enough to keep up with Oklahoma St. If for some reason the score is close in the second half, SE Louisiana will eventually tire and lose big.

Prediction: Oklahoma St.

S. Illinois vs St. Mary's Preview

#7 S.Illinois vs #10 St. Mary's
Where would St. Mary's be without the Gonzaga victory? S. Illinois is the more accomplished team as well as the better team. S. Illinois was also tested more throughout the season. S. Illinois is 4-1 against the field vs St. Mary's being 1-3.

Prediction: S.Illinois (but it will be close)

Arizona vs Utah St. Preview

#3 Arizona vs #14 Utah St.
Utah St. has game as they showed by their early season demolition of Utah. Unfortunately for them, Arizona is in a whole other class than Utah. If Arizona shows up interested to play this should be an easy victory for Arizona.

Prediction: Arizona

LSU vs UAB Preview

#6 LSU vs #11 UAB
What a dream matchup for LSU. UAB has only one win against a tournament team and guess what. That tournament team is in the play-in game. (Alabama A&M). UAB was the last at-large team in. They did not deserve the bid and LSU will prove that point.

Prediction: LSU

Boston College vs Penn Preview

#4 Boston College vs #13 Penn
This Penn team is not up to the usual Ivy league quality. They don't shoot well, they don't handle the ball well and they generally don't play very well. Boston College will be on a mission. They have to feel slighted by a #4 seed after only having 4 losses. They will take out their frustration on Penn.

Prediction: Boston College (by a lot)

Alabama vs UW-Milwaukee Preview

#5 Alabama vs #12 UW-Milwaukee
Alabama is a solid team. They don't stand out when you look at a bracket, but they always get the job done. Only one loss to a non-tournament team. They are 5-5 vs the field. UW-Milwaukee on the other hand is 0-2 vs the field and has not been competitive in any of their losses. The ESPN pundits said this is a prime candidate for an upset. I just don't see how.

Prediction: Alabama (Fairly easily)

Texas vs Nevada Preview

#8 Texas vs #9 Nevada
Texas has not played well lately. They had a late season win against Oklahoma St. but that is all they have to cheer about lately. They are 3-7 against the field. Nevada is an interesting team. I am not impressed by their early exit from the WAC tourney. So in this game we have an untested team (Nevada) that bowed out early in their conference tourney against a team playing terrible (Texas) as of late that also bowed out early in their conference tourney.

Prediction: Nevada, they can step things up a notch. Texas is playing like they have nothing left in the tank and are 5-5 in the last 10.

Illinois vs Fairleigh Dickinson Preview

#1 Illinois vs #16 Fairleigh Dickinson
There is really not much that needs to be said here. If Illinois loses this would be remembered as the biggest upset in college basketball history. Illinois has too much to play for and will put Fairleigh Dickinson down early. Illinois will not have a late game lapse as they have been having lately.

Prediction: Illinois (Big)

SE Louisiana Tournament Resume

Southeastern Louisiana (24-8, 13-3, 1st Southland)
Seed: #15 Chicago Regional
How they got here: Won Southland Tourney
Against The Field (0-0)

The good: First in the Southland Conference. Have a decent defense.

The bad: They can't score much. 4 losses vs sub 200 RPI teams. 1/1.2 assist/turnover ratio. 4 games against non-division 1 schools. Haven't played any really good teams. Drew Oklahoma St. in the 1st round.

Oklahoma St. Tournament Resume

Oklahoma St. (24-6, 11-5, 3rd Big 12)
Seed: #2 Chicago Regional
How they got here: Won Big 12 tourney
Against the Field (8-5):
W (N)Syracuse 74-60
W UAB 86-73
L Gonzaga 75-78
W @Texas Tech 76-66
W Iowa St. 83-73
L @Texas 61-75
L @Oklahoma 57-67
W Oklahoma 79-67
W Texas Tech 85-56
L @Kansas 79-81
L Texas 73-74
W (N)Kansas 78-75
W (N) Texas Tech 72-68

The good: Well tested team. Very good record against the field and the games are against quality competition. Always play hard. Great defense. One of the few teams that can run up and down the court with Illinois. Scoring margin of +12.2.

The bad: Got a bad draw being with Illinois. Late season loss vs Texas doomed them to a #2 seed. At least better than UConn who should have been paired with Illinois. Did not prove themselves away from home until the Big 12 tourney. Tough to guage them until they play some tourney games on a neutral court as Kansas is a mess and win against them does not prove much other than they can win games they should. Sweet 16 game should tell if they really can hang with the Illini.

Thursday, January 13, 2005

St. Mary's Tournament Resume

St. Mary's (25-8, 11-3, 2nd West Coast Conference)
Seed: #10 Chicago Regional
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field (1-3):
L (N)Mississippi St. 54-67
W Gonzaga 89-81
L @Gonzaga 63-68
L (N) Gonzaga 67-80

The good: They beat Gonzaga. 4-3 vs Top 100.

The bad: Haven't beat anyone of note outside of Gonzaga. If you take away the Gonzaga win what is left? Another resume that makes you realize why .500 teams from major conferences almost always get in over mid-majors like this. 1/1.3 assist to turnover ratio (ouch!).

S. Illinois Tournament Resume

Southern Illinois (26-7, 15-3, 1st Missouri Valley Conference)
Seed: 7th Chicago Regional
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field (4-2):
L LA-LaFayette 61-63
W (N)UTEP 68-62
W @Creighton 69-63
L @N. Iowa 61-67
W Creighton 71-67
W N. Iowa 76-69

The good: Has the best resume a mid-major can have outside of Gonzaga. 8-6 vs Top 100. 9-1 in the last 10. 11-7 Road/Neutral record. Ran away in a very good MVC conference. Good team.

The bad: Low scoring margin +6.8. Has not played any of the top teams. Un-tested.

Utah St. Tournament Resume

Utah (24-7, 13-5, 2nd Big West)
Seed: 14th Chicago Regional
How they got here: Won Big West Conference touney
Against the Field (2-2):
W Utah 71-45
L @Pacific 66-73
L Pacific 63-64
W (N) Pacific 65-52

The good: Got screwed out of a tournament bid last year. So they win the conference tourney and take away a bid from a bubble team this year. What sweet justice. Destroyed Utah early in the season. 1.4 assist/turnover ratio.

The bad: Only 5 games against the Top 100 RPI. 4 losses against sub 100 RPI teams.

Arizona Tournament Resume

Arizona (28-6, 15-3, T-1st Pac-10)
Seed: #3 Chicago Regional
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field (6-4):
L (N)Wake Forest 60-63
W (N)Mississippi St. 68-64
W Utah 67-62
L @Stanford 76-87
W UCLA 76-73
W Washington 91-82
W Stanford 90-72
W @UCLA 83-73
L @Washington 85-93
L (N)Washington 72-81

Tournament Games:
(3) Arizona 66 - (14) Utah St. 53

The good: 12-6 vs Top 100 RPI. Winning record against tourney teams. 12-5 Road/Neutral record. Salim Stoudamire (over 50% on 3's Wow!!!). Does not have to face a team from Washington until the Final 4 at the earliest. High margin of victory +10.1.

The bad: Listening to Lute Olsen complain about East Coast bias. Miserable record against the Washington teams. Looks disinterested on the court way too often. Will they play up to their potential?

UAB Tournament Resume

UAB (22-10, 10-6, T-4th Conference USA)
Seed: #11 Chicago Regional
How they got here: The last at-large bid
Against the field (1-5):
L Oklahoma St. 73-68
W Alabama A&M 100-68
L Charlotte 85-91
L @Cincinnati 69-72
L Louisville 73-77
L (N)Louisville 67-74

Tournament Games:
(11) UAB 82 - (6) LSU 68

The Good: They got the last bid. 8-7 Road/Neutral record. Good defense. Not much else good to say.

The Bad: 4 losses vs sub 100 RPI teams. 5-5 in the last 10 games. Only one win against a tournament team and that is the team that made the play-in game. The least deserving at large bid. (Just because I predicted they would make it, doesn't mean I thought they should make it)

LSU Tournament Resume

LSU (20-9, 12-4, T-1st SEC West, T-2nd SEC Overall)
Seed: #6 Chicago Regional
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field (5-5):
W LA-LaFayette 83-69
L W. Virginia 69-84
L @Utah 55-69
L @Alabama 58-73
L @Kentucky 58-89
W Mississippi St. 69-62
W @Mississippi St. 80-72
W Florida 77-73
W Alabama 61-59
L (N) Kentucky 78-79

The good: A tale of two seasons. Started 6-5. Ended 14-4. Started the SEC 6-4, Ended the SEC regular season 6-0. 4 straight losses against tourney teams, 4-0 against the next 4 tourney teams. Came on strong at the end of the season to earn a solid bid. Played Kentucky well in the SEC tourney. Gets the easiest of the 11 seeds in UAB. Will get a chance to prove UAB critics right. 3 straight wins against the RPI top 50 at the end of the season. All starters scoring average in double digits. Could be a real sleeper if the real LSU team is the one that finished the season.

The bad: Still does not have a winning record against tourney teams. 7-8 Road/Neutral record. Scoring margin only 4.4 PPG. Which is the real LSU team? The team at the beginning of the season or the one that finished strong?

Penn Tournament Resume

Penn (20-8, 13-1, 1st Ivy League)
Seed: #13 Chicago Regional
How they got here: The old fashion way, they earned it. (Regular season Ivy League Champ)
Against the Field (0-2):
L @Wisconsin 44-77
L @Villanova 64-74

The good: 3-3 vs Top 100.

The bad: Not much good. Eric Osmundson may not be available for tourney (mono). Have more turnovers than assists. Not a good shooting team from the outside. Not your typical Ivy League team. 5 losses vs sub 100 RPI teams. Will face a Boston College team that feels disrespected.

Boston College Tournament Resume

Boston College (25-4, 13-3, T-1st Big East)
Seed: #4 Chicago Region
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field (6-2):
W (N)UCLA 74-64
W @UConn 75-70
W @W. Virginia 73-53
W Villanova 67-66
W W. Virginia 62-50
W Syracuse 65-60
L @Villanova 70-76
L (N) W. Virginia 72-78

Tournament Games:
(4) Boston College 85 - (13) Penn 65

The good: 6-2 against the field. Only 4 losses. 1st in a tough Big East conference. 9-3 Road/Neutral record. Can win a ton of close games.

The bad: Inability to blow teams out is a warning signal to teams that have a bloated record. See "Margin of Victory" article. 4-4 in last 8 games after starting 20-0. Weakest of the Big East schedules, but did take care of business. Got a lower seed than deserved, based on their play. Probably not as good as their early play suggests. The 4-4 record over the last 8 games is more reflective of their ability.

UW-Milwaukee Tournament Resume

UW-Milwaukee (24-5, 14-2, 1st Horizon League)
Seed: #12 Chicago Regional
How they got here: Won Horizon League Tournament
Against the Field (0-2):
L @Wisconsin 37-66
L @Kansas 62-73

Tournament Games:
(12)UW-Milwaukee 83 - (5)Alabama 73

The good: McCants (17.4 PPG), Tucker (15.2 PPG, 5.9 RPG). Blew through the Horizon League. 12-4 Road/Neutral record. 9-1 last 10 games.

The bad: Not competitive against the Top teams they have played. 1/1 assist/turnover ratio. No victories against the Top 100. Drew a good #5 seed in Alabama.

Alabama Tournament Resume

Alabama (24-7, 12-4, T 1st SEC West, T-2nd SEC Overall)
Seed: 5th Chicago Region
How they got here: At-large bid
Against the Field (5-6):
W (N)Minnesota 78-72
L (N)Washington 76-79
W @Charlotte 102-101
L @Wisconsin 62-76
W LSU 73-58
W Mississippi St. 98-49
L @Florida 54-85
L @LSU 59-61
L Kentucky 71-78
W @Mississippi St. 68-63
L (N) Florida 62-68

The good: Solid resume. Beat almost all the teams they should of. A good quality for a 5 seed to have considering they have a history of losing to the teams they should beat. 9-6 Road/Neutral record.

The bad: 31 point massacre on the road against Florida. Not very deep. Solid team, but not great. 3-3 in last 6 after starting out 10-2 in conference.

Nevada Tournament Resume

Nevada (25-6, 16-2, 1st Western Athletic Conference)
Seed: #9 Chicago Region
How they got here: At large bid
Against the Field (2-3):
L @Kansas 52-85
L Pacific 69-72
L UTEP 80-83
W @UTEP 62-60
W Vermont 74-64

Tournament Games:
(9) Nevada 61 - (8) Texas 57

The good: Scrappy team that knows how to pull out a lot of close games. 11-2 road record. Fazekas and Pinkney are a nice 1-2 punch. Nice first round draw against Texas.

The bad: Lack of quality competition. Got creamed in the only major conference game they played. One of the few non-conference opponents Kansas blew out. Is the early departure in the WAC tourney a sign of more things to come?

Texas Tournament Resume

Texas (20-10, 9-7, T-5th Big 12)
Seed: Chicago Region
How they got here: At large bid
Against the Field (3-7):
L (N)Iowa 80-82
L @Wake Forest 88-89
W Oklahoma St. 75-61
L @Oklahoma 60-64
W Texas Tech 80-73
L @Kansas 65-90
L Iowa St. 80-92
L Texas Tech 65-69
L Oklahoma 58-74
W @Oklahoma St. 74-73

The good: Took down Oklahoma St. twice. Can be an explosive team capable of hanging with the best teams in the nation.

The bad: Has played terrible lately. 5-5 in the last 10 games. Has been decimated by injuries. 3-7 against the tournament field. Played a lot of big games, but has won few of them.

Fairleigh Dickinson Tournament Resume

Fairleigh Dickinson (20-12, 13-5, 2nd Northeast Conference)
Seed: #16 Chicago Region
How they got here: Won NorthEast Conference tournament
Against the Field (0-0):

The good: Solid season in the NorthEast conference. 8-9 Road/Neutral record that is better than most bubble teams.

The bad: Has to face Illini in the first round. Lack of games against tournament worthy opponents. Their defense is suspect. 3-7 non conference record.

Illinois Tournament Resume

Illinois (33-1, 15-1, 1st Big 10)
Seed: #1 Chicago Region
How they got here: Won Big 10 tournament
Against the Field (13-0):
W Oakland 85-54
W Delaware St. 87-67
W (N)Gonzaga 89-72
W Wake Forest 91-73
W (N)Cincinnati 67-45
W Iowa 73-68
W @Wisconsin 75-65
W Minnesota 89-66
W @Michigan St. 81-68
W Wisconsin 70-59
W @Iowa 75-65
W (N)Minnesota 64-56
W (N)Wisconsin 54-43

Tournament Games:
(1) Illinois 67 - (16) Fairleigh Dickinson 55

The good: Clearly the best team in the country. Illinois has beaten every tournament team that they have come against. They are still the team to beat. Illinois seems to have the most energy and can wear almost all teams down. If they are shooting good there is no team that can beat them. Late season loss hasn't affected their swagger.

The bad: In 3 of the last 4 games they have blown huge leads and let their opponent back in the game when it should have been over. Even though all their games are close to home the crowd will turn against them if they smell an upset. Also they have at least 2 stretches a games where they go about 4 minutes without scoring. That must change.